{"title":"Briefing the Swedish policy maker: the analyst-policy maker relationship in a small country","authors":"M. Fredholm","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2020.1746145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746145","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Policy makers tend to pick and choose among conclusions presented to them. This can result in politicization, which ultimately might result in intelligence being blamed for policy failures. This has a negative impact on intelligence analysis, transforming it in an ever more cautious direction which negates its utility in the policy process. Swedish intelligence learnt that for truly important intelligence reporting, in particular that which signified paradigm shifts, the conclusions had to be presented in a manner that had an impact, in an oral briefing. Moreover, the briefer must be prepared to defend the service’s conclusions. Hence, a keyword in the analyst-policy maker relationship was trust. The relationship had to develop into a partnership, in which the policy maker had the final word but the intelligence analyst did not shrink from presenting the service’s argument. This lesson from the Cold War appears to be just as valid in the present.","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"20 1","pages":"25 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746145","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44411825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. T. Moore, Elizabeth J. Moore, S. Cantey, R. Hoffman
{"title":"Sensemaking for 21st century intelligence","authors":"D. T. Moore, Elizabeth J. Moore, S. Cantey, R. Hoffman","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2020.1746143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746143","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The key to effective 21st century intelligence is our sensemaking process. In this article, we present a case for why Cold War-era reductive intelligence models have become obsolete, and we show that sensemaking provides a better framework for the issues that intelligence agencies and their governments face in the 21st century. To illustrate our argument, we apply the sensemaking paradigm to an increasingly prominent challenge: grey zone conflict.","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"20 1","pages":"45 - 59"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746143","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42952116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Anticipating surprise in an era of global technology advances: a framework for scientific & technical intelligence analysis","authors":"D. Pronk","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2020.1746141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746141","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article suggests a framework analytic methodology for Scientific & Technical Intelligence (S&TI) that is geared towards finding adversarial accelerated, or ‘crash’ weapon development programs. First, the nature of historic accelerated weapon programs is studied, so that common elements and indicators can be developed. An analytical framework based upon the generalized way in which all ‘crash’ programs are run is then constructed. With this analytical framework, when some aspect of a program are uncovered, inferences to aspects which have not yet been observed can be drawn. Using this approach for uncovering ‘crash’ programs implies however a new partnership between collectors and analysts. A strategy to search for ‘crash’ programs is constructed in order to focus the collection and analytical energy on the problem of looking for such a program. This approach is three-stepped. The strategy uses an initial step of understanding the adversary’s perceptions to guide the search to the industrial sectors most likely to harbor such a program. A second step uses a search of that industrial sector for change which would point to specific activities and locations. And finally, detailed analysis and collection focused against the specific facilities uncover details that lead to the truth.","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"20 1","pages":"60 - 71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47584365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Another day in the empire: the reign of George W. Bush and the total war neocons","authors":"J. Kearns","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2020.1746140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746140","url":null,"abstract":"Kurt Nimmo is a photographer and a multimedia developer, as well as teacher of graphic and photographic techniques at New Mexico State University at Las Cruces. Another Day in the Empire follows Ni...","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"19 1","pages":"231 - 232"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746140","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48295732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Intelligence analysis in a changing world, an introduction","authors":"C. Hijzen","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2020.1746142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746142","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this introductory article, the topic of intelligence analysis is explored. Starting from an interview with a former intelligence analyst in the Netherlands, it will be observed how the trade of intelligence analysis has changed over the years. From a practically non-existent professional environment the trade has grown to become far more important, in terms of the position and training of intelligence analysts. From there, questions are posed about the development of intelligence analysis worldwide in the past, present, and future. In the final part of this article, an overview of the contributions in this special issue is presented.","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"20 1","pages":"1 - 6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2020.1746142","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44463225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Order and chaos: the CIA’s HYDRA database and the dawn of the information age","authors":"J. Wegener","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2019.1697539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697539","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the summer of 1967, with antiwar and civil rights protests dominating the news, U.S. president Lyndon B. Johnson tasked law enforcement and intelligence agencies with investigating links between domestic civil unrest and foreign governments, particularly the Soviet Union. One of the outcomes was HYDRA, a CIA-led counter-intelligence database intended to leverage novel digital information technology to uncover previously unseen links to foreign threats. The paper argues that conceptualizing HYDRA as technological system which mobilized resources from across the federal government as well as from foreign partner agencies, allows us to raise larger questions about the impact of information technology on intelligence work: How did computer technology change everyday practices within intelligence and security services? Did public opposition to computerization efforts contribute to a critical discourse within Western societies associating security databases with attacks on freedom and democracy? Did the use of computers contribute to a new culture of security that shifted attention from great power rivalries to technological, networked or transnational threats which became characteristic of the Information Age?","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"19 1","pages":"77 - 91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697539","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48029192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"U.S. intelligence and the nascent transatlantic security architecture of the Cold War – the case of the ‘Gesellschaft für Wehrkunde’","authors":"Tobias Schmitt","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2019.1697547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697547","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The rearmament of West Germany was an important goal of U.S. foreign policy during the early 1950s. However, this was a contested issue among the German population. In this context, former professional soldiers played a crucial role. U.S. intelligence agencies initiated covert operations that were designed not only to influence this key group but also to set up clandestine personnel pools for paramilitary action. The core of this endeavor was their cooperation with former Waffen-SS general Felix Steiner and the founding of the ‘Gesellschaft für Wehrkunde’ (GfW), a network of ex-officers that was dedicated to defense studies. This organization quickly developed into an important propaganda tool and a military think tank. After U.S. intelligence terminated its support, the German Federal Government took over GfW and used it as a means to establishing the West German armed forces. The case of the GfW also sheds light on the problematic cooperation between former Nazi functionaries and U.S. intelligence and highlights the divergence of German and American concepts for paramilitary operations.","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"19 1","pages":"103 - 121"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697547","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47177299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Propaganda intelligence and covert action: the Regional Information Office and British intelligence in South-East Asia, 1949-1961","authors":"A. Shaw","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2019.1659579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2019.1659579","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article explores the intersections between propaganda, intelligence and covert action through the experience of Britain’s Regional Information Office (RIO) in Singapore. RIO defined its functions as ‘propaganda intelligence’: the generation of intelligence to guide propaganda output and analysis of enemy propaganda to feed into the broader intelligence picture of communist intentions. This highlights the interdependency of intelligence and propaganda. RIO worked closely with MI5 and MI6 in developing intelligence on communist China and North Vietnam. Evaluating the position of RIO within Britain’s regional intelligence network also reveals some of the complexities of the late-imperial intelligence system. It illuminates the changing status of different intelligence activities and the growth of a particular intelligence culture, providing insight into how Britain engaged with the clandestine Cold War in South-East Asia.","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"19 1","pages":"51 - 76"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2019.1659579","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46302039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Austrian Intelligence Reform: do intelligence and security studies have a future in Austria?","authors":"A. Wimmer, D. Bare, William B. Duncan","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2019.1697540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697540","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This essay examines the Austrian experience with intelligence, security and terrorism studies. After a brief discussion of the state of intelligence and security studies in Austria, the authors provide a comparison to Singapore, a nation with similar geopolitical issues as well as a different and, arguably, more developed and comprehensive academic program to confront and deal effectively with security challenges. The article concludes with four critical suggestions for the establishment of a ‘Central European’ Intelligence and Security Studies program in Austria. The authors recommend combining academics and practitioners on program faculties, emphases on domestic, regional and extra-regional factors in both program contents and the composition of student bodies, an interdisciplinary approach to the critical role of ideologies, and the development of specific expertise in order to understand and confront regional threats.","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"19 1","pages":"102 - 92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697540","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46326105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The future of intelligence: challenges in the twenty-first century","authors":"Glen Segell","doi":"10.1080/16161262.2019.1697537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697537","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37890,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Intelligence History","volume":"19 1","pages":"122 - 123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/16161262.2019.1697537","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46367277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}