Anticipating surprise in an era of global technology advances: a framework for scientific & technical intelligence analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article suggests a framework analytic methodology for Scientific & Technical Intelligence (S&TI) that is geared towards finding adversarial accelerated, or ‘crash’ weapon development programs. First, the nature of historic accelerated weapon programs is studied, so that common elements and indicators can be developed. An analytical framework based upon the generalized way in which all ‘crash’ programs are run is then constructed. With this analytical framework, when some aspect of a program are uncovered, inferences to aspects which have not yet been observed can be drawn. Using this approach for uncovering ‘crash’ programs implies however a new partnership between collectors and analysts. A strategy to search for ‘crash’ programs is constructed in order to focus the collection and analytical energy on the problem of looking for such a program. This approach is three-stepped. The strategy uses an initial step of understanding the adversary’s perceptions to guide the search to the industrial sectors most likely to harbor such a program. A second step uses a search of that industrial sector for change which would point to specific activities and locations. And finally, detailed analysis and collection focused against the specific facilities uncover details that lead to the truth.