Whitehall Papers最新文献_第9页

III. The Politics of Gulf–Asian Security Cooperation 3海湾-亚洲安全合作的政治

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2018.1499258

Jean-Loup Samaan

{"title":"III. The Politics of Gulf–Asian Security Cooperation","authors":"Jean-Loup Samaan","doi":"10.1080/02681307.2018.1499258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499258","url":null,"abstract":"Security cooperation remains the most concrete expression of a rapprochement between two countries. It indicates the operation of a diplomatic proximity and ensures that public pledges are substantiated. At the same time, bilateral security cooperation can only become effective if the capabilities of both sides are meaningful by themselves. In other words, exchanges between security forces – intelligence services, military or police forces – will have strategic significance not simply because of the aspirations of national leaders, but because of technical criteria: the readiness and interoperability of their personnel; the frequency of their interactions with the other side; and the scope of the exchanges all inform the level of operation for a bilateral security cooperation. This is why, in the case of Gulf–Asian relations, this cooperation has to be understood in the broader context of the evolution of both Asian and Gulf security politics. During the past decade, while Gulf energy exports have leaned towards the Asia-Pacific region, national armed forces in the peninsula have undergone an ambitious modernisation process. The traditional reliance on US protection through military bases operated by US armed forces in the region remains valid, but its extent has lessened compared to the 1990s. This is the result of changes in terms of capabilities, training and strategic ambitions of Gulf states. The massive arms sales of the past two decades and the rise of a new generation of officers educated since the 1991 Gulf War are now turning the militaries of countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE into major regional players. At the same time, Gulf leaders have become more strategically ambitious. The UAE and Qatar contributed to NATO air operations in Libya in 2011 as well as to","PeriodicalId":37791,"journal":{"name":"Whitehall Papers","volume":"92 1","pages":"46 - 62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499258","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41892728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

About the Author 关于作者

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2018.1508947

Jean-Loup Samaan

引用次数: 0

I. The End of the Post-Gulf War Order 一、海湾战争后秩序的终结

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2018.1499255

Jean-Loup Samaan

引用次数: 0

Introduction 介绍

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2018.1499254

Jean-Loup Samaan

{"title":"Introduction","authors":"Jean-Loup Samaan","doi":"10.1080/02681307.2018.1499254","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499254","url":null,"abstract":"In 2017, commentators on Gulf politics focused most of their attention on the effects of US President Donald Trump’s presidency on the region, while in fact diplomatic events in the peninsula were pointing in a different direction, demonstrating the growing strategic ties between Gulf and Asian countries. First, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, crown prince of Abu Dhabi, travelled to Delhi at the end of January, where he was invited as guest of honour to the celebration of India’s Republic Day, a privilege given in the recent past to the former US and French presidents, Barack Obama and François Hollande. The event was followed by the signing of a strategic global partnership between India and the UAE, including over a dozen bilateral agreements ranging from military cooperation to investment in Indian infrastructure. Four weeks later, the ruler of Saudi Arabia, King Salman, embarked on a historical month-long Asia tour that brought him to Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Japan and China. If economic deals were at the top of the agenda – with, for instance, $25 billion in investments contemplated in Indonesia – strategic considerations were also on the table, as Riyadh is eager to increase its counterterrorism cooperation with Muslim countries in Southeast Asia and to reinforce its Islamic Military Alliance (also known as the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition) formed on 15 December 2015. Last, in June 2017, Saudi Arabia, alongside five other countries, announced the cessation of diplomatic relations with Qatar over claims that the small emirate had been sponsoring terrorist organisations. As all eyes turned towards the US, the strongest partner of all the parties involved, the position of the US government soon appeared confused between the Department of State expressing neutrality and President Trump","PeriodicalId":37791,"journal":{"name":"Whitehall Papers","volume":"92 1","pages":"1 - 8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499254","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48112455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Acknowledgements 致谢

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2018.1499253

Jean-Loup Samaan

{"title":"Acknowledgements","authors":"Jean-Loup Samaan","doi":"10.1080/02681307.2018.1499253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499253","url":null,"abstract":"This Whitehall Paper examines the ongoing rapprochement between Gulf and Asian states, explaining how this current trend can be characterised as a case of strategic hedging. The initial idea behind this research came to me in spring 2012 when I flew for the first time to Abu Dhabi as a NATO official. It is only then, when confronted with the physical reality of the Asian presence in the Gulf, that I started investigating the topic and writing several publications. Later, the perplexity and bewilderment with which NATO decision-makers usually responded when I made the case for a better understanding of Gulf–Asian relations definitely convinced me that there was an urgent need for a strategic analysis of the topic. Throughout the process of writing this paper, I have been fortunate to receive support and advice from many scholars and practitioners based in the Gulf, Asia, Europe and the US. Specifically, I would like to express my gratitude to Frederic Grare, Fatiha Dazi-Heni and Jonathan Fulton, who generously took the time to review earlier drafts of the manuscripts and provided precious comments that enabled me to clarify and strengthen my argument. Finally, I am deeply grateful for the support of the Royal United Services Institute. Malcolm Chalmers and Emma De Angelis believed in the initial proposal and supported me to turn it into a Whitehall Paper. I thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments that greatly contributed to improving this final version. Obviously, the shortcomings of this paper are my own. The views expressed here are strictly mine and do not reflect the views of the UAE National Defense College.","PeriodicalId":37791,"journal":{"name":"Whitehall Papers","volume":"92 1","pages":"v - v"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499253","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44941924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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II. The Rise of Gulf–Asian Common Strategic Interests 2海湾-亚洲共同战略利益的崛起

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2018.1499257

Jean-Loup Samaan

{"title":"II. The Rise of Gulf–Asian Common Strategic Interests","authors":"Jean-Loup Samaan","doi":"10.1080/02681307.2018.1499257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499257","url":null,"abstract":"While the relationship between the GCC and Western countries began to decrease economically and politically, the region increasingly attracted energy-hungry Asian powers – primarily China, India, Japan and South Korea – looking for oil and gas resources required to sustain their growth. Researchers have acknowledged this shift of energy markets towards Asian economies, but so far have tended to downplay its political meaning by focusing on its purely economic logic and modest strategic dimension. Two legitimate arguments are highlighted in the scholarship. First, as the previous chapter underlined, in the near future the network of US military bases in the Gulf is unlikely to be dismantled, and defence agreements with Washington will continue to shape the security policies of GCC members. Second, Asian countries appear reluctant to develop a geopolitical posture far from their territories. Although strategic thinkers in Washington continue to support the political gain of US global commitments, there is no such ambition in India or China. The former remains trapped in its local conflict with Pakistan and seems unable to project power at the global level, while the latter insisted until recently on the purely economic nature of its diplomacy – the so-called ‘China’s peaceful rise’ – to tone down speculation of Chinese hegemonic aspirations. Because of their inability or their unwillingness to play a global role, those countries were therefore portrayed as ‘free riders’,","PeriodicalId":37791,"journal":{"name":"Whitehall Papers","volume":"92 1","pages":"24 - 45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02681307.2018.1499257","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44981998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Security Interests 安全利益

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2017-10-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3046869

P. Paech

引用次数: 3

V. Hargeisa’s Modest Experiment 五、哈尔格萨的适度实验

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2017-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2017.1462556

A. Hills

{"title":"V. Hargeisa’s Modest Experiment","authors":"A. Hills","doi":"10.1080/02681307.2017.1462556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02681307.2017.1462556","url":null,"abstract":"Police–community engagement in Mogadishu’s districts varies according to clan dynamics, personalities and security issues. Expectations are low on both sides, but the physical vulnerability of police officers and their stations means that some form of working relationship must be developed; it may be based on avoidance or acquiescence, rather than trust, but it must represent a locally acceptable form of engagement. This suggests that the key to understanding police–community engagement is in the knowledge, skills and resources police need to fulfil local, rather than international, expectations regarding the management of low-level security. This interpretation helps to move the debate about police–community relations forward from the now standard assertion that public trust is the key variable influencing police effectiveness and the legitimacy of police actions. Contrary to Boateng, collaborative relationships do not depend on institutional legitimacy, trust or procedural justice. Rather, it depends on a range of context-specific variables. Mogadishu’s environment is unique, so its experience of mobiles providing a two-way technology capable of reaching low-income or marginalised populations and affecting their response to crime does not necessarily transfer to more remote Somali cities, such as Baidoa and Kismayo (140 and 250 miles by air to the west and south respectively). Nevertheless, Mogadishu’s experience raises general questions about the","PeriodicalId":37791,"journal":{"name":"Whitehall Papers","volume":"91 1","pages":"84 - 98"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02681307.2017.1462556","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43407892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

II. Policing Mogadishu 2摩加迪沙警察

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2017-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2017.1462553

A. Hills

{"title":"II. Policing Mogadishu","authors":"A. Hills","doi":"10.1080/02681307.2017.1462553","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02681307.2017.1462553","url":null,"abstract":"At first glance, Mogadishu’s security governance is organised conventionally. The coastal city was formally recognised as the capital of the federal republic when the internationally acknowledged FGS was established in 2012, and it hosts Somalia’s parliament, supreme court, prime minister’s office and the presidential palace, known as Villa Somalia. Located in Benadir region, it also acts as the capital of the Benadir Regional Administration (BRA) which, headed by the mayor of Mogadishu, covers the same area as the city and plays a significant role in the politics and decision-making of its seventeen districts (it receives 15 per cent of the federal budget). Benadir is the smallest administrative region in Somalia, but has the largest population, which in 2014 the UN estimated as approximately 1.65 million. This figure includes approximately 369,000 IDPs. Mogadishu’s security is officially managed by the SPF and less officially by NISA and its military counterterrorism force, Gaashaan (‘Shield’), essentially the regional administration’s intelligence agency. The Somali National Army is not operating formally in Mogadishu, its head having agreed in March 2017 to pull all military personnel from the city (4,000 had been present, most of whom had not been paid for months). However, this situation may yet change as a result of three decisions taken in April and May 2017.","PeriodicalId":37791,"journal":{"name":"Whitehall Papers","volume":"91 1","pages":"24 - 48"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/02681307.2017.1462553","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44043908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Preface 前言

Whitehall Papers Pub Date : 2017-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/02681307.2017.1462550

A. Hills

引用次数: 0