Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review最新文献

{"title":"Impact of the Mass Media on the Assessment of Military Threats","authors":"Gintaras Šumskas, I. Matonytė","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract On the grounds of the theories of the use of the mass media, the authors analyse concepts and assessments of military threats. The analysis is based on the data of representative public opinion polls (conducted in spring 2016 by Vilmorus, N = 1004). The research shows that certain qualities of individual political competence strengthen the impact of the media, that the tabloid press, Russian TV and the quality press affect concepts of military threats, and that sets of factors shaping the concepts of various military threats are different. The extent of the mass media impact is influenced mostly by an individual’s ethnic background, education, income, participation in elections, political education, inter-personal communication on political topics as well as a leftist-rightist self-identification.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"425 - 454"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42701601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Deterrence Credibility of NATO and the Readiness of the Baltic States to Employ the Deterrence Instruments","authors":"Viljar Veebel, I. Ploom","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This current study aims to assess the credibility of the deterrence posture provided by NATO in avoiding Russia’s potential aggression against the Baltic countries; what could the aggression scenarios look like; what should be done to increase the credibility of NATO’s deterrence strategy and the ability of the Baltic countries to employ additional deterrence instruments. The focus of the analysis is on four components: capability (both nuclear and conventional military capabilities), communication, cohesion, and interdependence/acceptance of norms. In this way, the authors build-up their own framework to cover both the physical capabilities of potential parties to the conflict and behaviouralethical aspects related to the current security environment. The article demonstrates the challenges for the Alliance’s deterrence strategy and makes several suggestions of how to increase the credibility of NATO’s deterrence strategy to avoid Russia’s potential aggression.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"171 - 200"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48630212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Anatomy of Zapad-2017: Certain Features of Russian Military Planning","authors":"Daivis Petraitis","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract All Zapad exercises which took place after the collapse of the former Soviet Union (in 1999, 2009, 2013 and 2017) attracted the attention of neighboring countries and led to different estimates and conclusions. Every exercise had something particular happening which could not be explained or understood in the West. Step by step, while analyzing Zapad exercises and changes in Russia and its armed forces, sufficient information was gathered allowing for the partial explanation of the behavior of Russian forces during different exercises, and the reasons why they acted in such a manner. Contrary to NATO and a majority of Western countries, the Russian military plans and executes military activities differently. This could be explained by the czarist and Soviet military giving preference to Prussian General Staff (GS) traditions and philosophy. The General Staff, which advocated its own methods, allowed the national leadership to manage and use military instruments more effectively. The recent Russian military tends to keep those traditions alive, while believing that modern technological progress could reduce (if not eliminate) the weaknesses of the Prussian GS philosophy and increase its stronger aspects. The Russian military believes that detailed operation planning in advance, with synchronization of actions in its core and the ability of forces to implement plans and the leadership to control and command an entire operation can turn the military into an effective fighting and foreign policy tool. Zapad exercises have shown that they are used to test the concept and planning of a potential Russian war with a strong opponent in the West (Zapad operation). The concept and plan are both backed up with adequate assumptions. An entire operation (war) is planned to be waged in three stages. The essence of the war (and plan) is a synchronization of military actions in time and space. Since 1999, all of this has been tested, in the earlier years in separate stages, and during Zapad 2017 tests were carried out in a more complex way and covered all three stages. It is worth to note that at least two times (in 2009 and 2017), Russia used Zapad exercises not only to test its plans and troops, but as a deception and strategic communication message as well. It appears that in both cases, some success was achieved.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"229 - 267"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46342619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lithuania‘s Security and Defence in 2017–2018: the International Context and New Research. Preface","authors":"Gediminas Vitkus","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0001","url":null,"abstract":"The Research Centre of the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania, alongside its partners at Vilnius University and Vytautas Magnus University, present their readers with the sixteenth volume of the Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, devoted to the security and defence topicalities of Lithuania and the Baltics in 2017-2018. As is typical each year, the period from fall 2017 to the end of summer 2018 was rich in developments important for the security and defence of Lithuania. The probability of changes at the level of the international system was primarily associated with the change in the USA administration and Donald Trump’s term in office. During the electoral campaign, the future president, contrary to his predecessors, assessed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization rather critically and claimed that the contribution of European allies to the enhancement of the defensive capabilities of the Alliance are too small. Trump’s position had a dual impact on the development of the European security. On one hand, it encouraged Europeans, among them Lithuania, to start increasing defence financing. On the other hand, it served as an additional impulse to make further steps to the European integration in the area of defence. At the end of 2017, the European Union began to implement the provisions of the Lisbon Treaty on Permanent Structured Cooperation. Certainly, it is a small, but nevertheless important, step towards closer European cooperation. This is particularly significant keeping in mind the on-going separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Brexit) and the unclear perspective of this important country. This time, Lithuania, without nagging doubts, also confirmed its intention to participate in the cooperation, and even undertook the initiative, to establish rapid reaction teams for responding to cyberattacks. Meanwhile, during the discussed period, at the level of the international system and within the European security space, dynamic processes were taking place. In the eastern neighbourhoods of Lithuania one could observe the opposite picture, i.e. paraphrasing Erich Maria Remarque “Im Osten Nichts Neues”. The political and military tension between Russia and the Western world was still lingering or, for all we know, Russia’s “hybrid warfare” against","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"11 - 5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42871597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Possibilities to Attract Lithuanian Young People to Permanent Compulsory Primary Military Service","authors":"Aušra Pocienė","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Even though permanent compulsory primary military service is an unquestionable military duty, it is very important that it has the support of the public. The question of what motivates young people to volunteer to do their PCPMS will remain relevant as long as the service is in place. This article attempts to identify ways to attract young people to military service. It analyses the value-based context of the Lithuanian public, specifically highlighting the priorities of the younger generation. This allows us to understand what forms the basis of young people’s decisions and the things they would consider in making up their minds to do PCPMS. The article contrasts the views of conscripts and civil young people towards PCPMS, the army and the defence of the country. It aims to develop an understanding of why the former choose PCPMS voluntarily. The article relies on data from quantitative studies - the opinion polls of young Lithuanians (males aged 15-30) and conscripts - conducted by researchers at the Centre for Strategic Research at the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania in 2015-2017. It also relies on data from the European Values Study performed in Lithuania in 2008.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"373 - 399"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46191953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Interaction between Intelligence Operations and Ethics in the Context of National Security: a Theoretical Review of the Problem","authors":"Audronė Petrauskaitė, Laurynas Šaltenis","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The effectiveness of intelligence operations is directly related to the conduct of intelligence officers and depends on their moral attitudes and system of values. The specifics of intelligence operations may lead to moral dilemmas in the behaviour of the officers. The operating methods of intelligence institutions include both ethical tactical elements and those that run counter to the generally accepted ethical principles that could discredit democracy and the fundamental values that the state advocates. This article analyses the ethical problems that are encountered in the process of using HUMINT, an intelligence method. The authors employ theoretical analysis to construct an initial integral behaviour model of the intelligence officer based on the context of choices and operational implications that could encourage further scientific discussion of the subject.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"401 - 424"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48765236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Organised Crime: New Challenges and Response Addressing Them","authors":"Klaidas Kuchalskis","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract At the political level, organised crime has long been regarded as a threat to national security. However, real urgency of this threat has not been defined. Why is this issue “securitised”? Or, in general, should it be included in the list of the most prominent threats? Maybe this phenomenon should be considered as a typical problem that would be resolved by usual means? The article aims to find answers to these questions. Organised crime is analysed by comparing the perspectives of both Lithuania and the European Union. It is sought to evaluate its impact on economic and social values. In this work, the author examined the European Union and national strategic documents identifying the threats posed by organised crime, assessed organised crime groups, their spheres of activity, impact on social security, the factors determining the peculiarities of organised crime development, and revealed the link between organised crime and other threats. The objectives of this article are: 1) to analyse threats posed by organised crime from the Lithuanian and European Union perspectives; 2) to examine structures of organised criminal groups, areas of illicit activities, so-called ‘engines of crime’, and the main ‘crime enablers’ influencing the evolution of criminality;1 3) to assess new challenges and propose specific measures of response towards organised crime as a threat to national security. The author applies systematic evaluation, comparative methods, and analysis of documents and judicial practice. The information derived from interviews with civil servants and operational officers is presented as well.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"201 - 225"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69228261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contemporary Warfare Discourse in Russia’s Military Thought","authors":"Algirdas Revaitis","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article analyses the Russian concept of contemporary warfare after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and the changes that have occurred in the wake of the 2014 military conflict in Eastern Ukraine. This concept is shaped through a dissection of public texts and speeches by Russian military officers, experts and analysts. The article attempts to measure the impact of Russia’s military practice in Eastern Ukraine in its stance on contemporary warfare and see what new types of warfare (terminologically speaking) are appearing in Russia’s military vocabulary. A vision of the future of types of Russian war is presented, complete with arguments regarding the most plausible case of future local war with respect to Russia. The article furthermore provides a detailed analysis of the interpretations of asymmetrical, network-centric, hybrid warfare, colour revolutions, controlled chaos, and information and electromagnetic warfare in Russia’s military thought, which is understood as forms of realisation of contemporary warfare. A quest for the origin of these warfare ideas shows that Russia tends to emulate the military experience of western powers, the US in particular, instead of doing the opposite and acting adaptively and conceptualising its most recent military experience as a vision of modern warfare.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"269 - 301"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45350438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Kaliningrad in the European Security Architecture after the Annexation of Crimea","authors":"R. Lopata","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Following Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea, there are few who would doubt Moscow’s endeavours to influence the balance of power in the pan-Baltic region as well. As often as not, such endeavours tend to be analysed after they occur. Russia’s potential to exercise this kind of influence using the Kaliningrad factor was recalled as if apropos of nothing. This is cause to suspect that academic research has so far failed to properly consider Kaliningrad as a geostrategic factor. Then there are the questions: What is the course of the transformation of the geopolitical status of the Russian Federation’s Kaliningrad (Konigsberg) region? What is the role that Moscow has earmarked for the exclave within the European security architecture? And is it a merely regional role? One way to find out the answers is by verifying the governance model applied by the parent country to the oblast, which is convincingly grounded on the concept of a geopolitical hostage. Moscow is tightening its grip on the social, economic and political processes in Kaliningrad. By using financial subsidies, infrastructural projects and laws to modify the status of the exclave, it is trying to stabilise the socio-economic situation in the exclave, making every effort to ensure Kaliningrad’s viability under isolation and transit restriction (termination). Political control is assured by Moscow’s direct dummies within the exclave’s administration and United Russia’s dominance at so-called elected institutions. After the war with Georgia, which is to say roughly since 2009, Russia has taken focused steps to rapidly modernise and reorganise its military. As we analyse the measures Russia deploys to develop its military presence in the Western Military District, we can say that in 2015-2016 Moscow attained the complete superiority of conventional weaponry over NATO. The Kaliningrad region played a vital role in that process. Both implicitly and for all practical purposes, the exclave became a factor to perform the function of Russia’s military bastion. Strategically speaking, this is the region’s old role given new life. Kaliningrad has become the heart of Russia’s A2/AD ‘bubble’, raising new challenges for the security of the Scandinavian countries, Finland, the Baltic states and Poland, ergo Western Europe. Kaliningrad has turned into a diminishing factor in terms of Belarus’ geopolitical role. The consistent re-militarisation of Kaliningrad affects the regional states and transatlantic relations alike. Moscow’s goal is for the Kaliningrad factor to be of strategic importance in the balance of power dialogue with the West, and the US in particular. Moscow is being frank that the purpose of a remilitarised Kaliningrad in the Baltic region and the Kuril Islands in the Far East is to reduce the geostrategic influence of the US and increase Russia’s security beyond the perimeter of its borders.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"303 - 328"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45739567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nuclear Matters: Lithuanian Security Culture in the Context of NATO Trends","authors":"Eglė Murauskaitė","doi":"10.2478/lasr-2018-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/lasr-2018-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study traces and contrasts two parallel processes: the development of Lithuanian security culture since the country’s independence in 1990, and the evolution of NATO’s relation to nuclear weapons since the collapse of the Soviet Union. While Lithuania has historically been a vocal advocate for NATO shoring up defences vis-a-vis Russia, the nuclear nature of NATO’s deterrent has largely escaped the public discourse. Lacking historical traditions of open public discussion on matters of defence and security, the gap between Lithuania’s foreign and domestic discourse had only started to close in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukraine conflict. Narratives surrounding this watershed event also differ dramatically: for NATO it marked the end of the non-proliferation and arms reduction era, while Lithuania focused on the role of Russian militias and failed to take note of the changes in NATO’s nuclear stance. As NATO dusts off classical nuclear deterrent doctrines, posturing in the new geopolitical environment, the limited ability of Eastern European member states like Lithuania to adequately participate in these debates risks subsequently undermining the utility of the agreed concepts and eventually - chipping away at alliance unity. A Lithuanian case study offers insights into the security culture challenges common among NATO’s Eastern European members and partners - acknowledging and understanding them can help identify the building blocks needed to get more of these countries on-board as effective creators of a collective security environment.","PeriodicalId":37780,"journal":{"name":"Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review","volume":"16 1","pages":"35 - 58"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46822513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}