HSE Economic Journal最新文献_第9页

International Experience of Taxation of Crypto-assets 加密资产征税的国际经验

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-1-53-84

D. Kochergin, N. Pokrovskaia

引用次数: 4

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in Russian Economy 估算俄罗斯经济中的财政乘数

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-268-294

Ilya Zyablitskiy

{"title":"Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in Russian Economy","authors":"Ilya Zyablitskiy","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-268-294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-268-294","url":null,"abstract":"The paper estimates fiscal multipliers based on models of structural vector autoregression, identified by sign and narrative restrictions. Narrative restrictions enhanced the identification procedure, having narrowed the set of models in line with the fiscal multipliers’ theoretical inference. The models that were predominantly associated with positive impulse responses of output to government expenditures shocks and negative impulse responses to government revenues shocks were chosen. Narrative sign restrictions only slightly changed the median impulse responses however wiped off outlier models induced by the randomicity of sign restrictions identification. This fostered the more accurate intervals of impulse responses and improved the estimates. In result, point estimate of revenue multiplier is lower in absolute value (–0,38) than the point estimate of expenditure multiplier (0,42). Nevertheless, taking into account, the multiplier of oil and gas revenues is greater than non-oil and gas revenues. Economic expenditures have the greatest impact on GDP during the first year whereas the least have social expenditures. The contribution of national projects to GDP was evaluated using estimated multipliers given the near-2019 economic conditions. It turned out to be slightly positive in 2019 (0,4%), then it grows and raises GDP on 4,0% in 2024 against the scenario with the absence of national projects. Thus, the average uplift to GDP growth rates is 0,67 p.p.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67833403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Socio-economic Efficiency of the Leasing in Renewable Energy 可再生能源租赁的社会经济效率

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-238-263

V. Gazman

引用次数: 2

Value Relevance of Government Ownership of Equity (Evidence from Russian Listed Companies) 政府股权的价值相关性(来自俄罗斯上市公司的证据)

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-314-330

A. Maga, E. Baranova, Zhargal Tumunbayarova

{"title":"Value Relevance of Government Ownership of Equity (Evidence from Russian Listed Companies)","authors":"A. Maga, E. Baranova, Zhargal Tumunbayarova","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-314-330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-314-330","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of government ownership of a firm’s equity has generated much discussion in finance, economics, and politics. Extant literature provides evidence of both positive and negative effect of government ownership on the market value of firms with multiple reasons in favor of both effects. There has also been re search on how such effects may differ in different markets. This paper aims to explore value-relevance in Russian financial markets. We are exploring the relationship between government ownership of a firm’s equity on its market value in Russia with the view of answering the research question of how investors in Russia perceive the fact and degree of government ownership on equity measured through the market value of equity. We are using a sample of 159 Russian listed companies to identify relationships between market value and government ownership of equity. Previous studies support a positive relationship between such variables, however evidence from Russian listed firms proves otherwise. We find little statistically significant evidence of such association in the market in general, how ever the industry effect proved to be significant; we find that government control is severely penalized in manufacturing, while rewarded in service sectors; this effect also depends on the concentration of government ownership. This research connects to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67832531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Theoretical Approach and a Numerical Method for Finding a Quasi-Optimal Solution to a Nonlinear High-Dimensional Discrete Problem 求非线性高维离散问题准最优解的理论方法和数值方法

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-465-482

M. Gorskiy, GK Rest-Group

引用次数: 2

Why Are Some Theories Not Recognized, While Others Are Succesful? «Meritorious Paternalism» of R. Musgrave and «Libertarian Paternalism» of R. Thaler 为什么有些理论不被认可，而另一些却很成功?马斯格雷夫的《值得表扬的家长制》和塞勒的《自由意志家长制》

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-345-364

A. Rubinstein

{"title":"Why Are Some Theories Not Recognized, While Others Are Succesful? «Meritorious Paternalism» of R. Musgrave and «Libertarian Paternalism» of R. Thaler","authors":"A. Rubinstein","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-345-364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-345-364","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers two theories that are half a century apart from each other, justifying state intervention in market relations – Richard Musgrave's «Theory of Meritorious Goods» and Richard Thaler's «Libertarian Paternalism». Within the framework of a comparative methodological study, the sources and prerequisites of these theoretical constructions, the design of state intervention characteristic of each of them, as well as criticism of the meritorious and libertarian paternalism, are discussed. The thesis that both theories are based on the same initial assumptions is substantiated, they assume the same goals of state intervention and the conclusion is formulated – in these theories there is more in common than different. They are distinguished only by the institutional design of «pushing»: in one case, it is about creating economic incentives for the right individual choice, in the other – the manipulation of the «default option», which uses an arsenal of psychological tools. It is shown that with all the novelty, «new paternalism» is, in fact, a «new meritorics», based not only on the assumption of irrationality of individuals, but its psychological explanation, created by behavioral economists and which has become part of the mainstream, which determines the answer to the question of article. At the same time, this answer does not create a holistic picture, and the negative connotation of paternalism is still preserved in economic science. The article formulates an additional consideration, revealing another side of the success of libertarian paternalism: the «language game», inherent in Musgrave’s theory was outdated in the early 1950s, and, therefore, this theory was among the «forgotten» ones, and the concept of Thaler and his colleagues corresponds to the new «language game», the key elements of which are the word «liberalism» and speech constructions, corresponding to the modern language and terminology of the mainstream of economic theory.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67832678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Modeling the Probability of Credit Default of Clients of Microfinance Organizations: The Case of One MFI 小额信贷机构客户信用违约概率建模:以一家小额信贷机构为例

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-497-523

K. Polyakov, Liudmila Zhukova

{"title":"Modeling the Probability of Credit Default of Clients of Microfinance Organizations: The Case of One MFI","authors":"K. Polyakov, Liudmila Zhukova","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-497-523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-497-523","url":null,"abstract":"Microfinance organizations have become widespread in the crisis years, issuing microloans (up to 100000 rubles) at high interest rates almost without documents. Today, the Central Bank of Russia actively regulates this market, more and more tightening requirements, limiting rates and pennies on loans. This necessitates the formation of a new strategy for assessing the risk of non-repayment of a loan or loan, based on the prevention of delinquency on the part of customers. To do this, first, it is necessary to obtain more informative data about customers, without complicating the relationship with them. Secondly, it is necessary to have a good understanding of the possibilities of certain methods of classification in solving various problems of evaluating potential customers. The authors of this study analyze the importance for the clients classification quality of those indicators that are traditionally collected by MFIs, as well as the importance of some new indicators based on data from social networks. In this case, the importance of indicators is interpreted in the context of specific classification algorithms (methods).To model credit default (delay of more than 30 days), the authors use several algorithms for constructing classification trees – CART and C 4.5 algorithms, logistic regression and Random Forest algorithm. Modeling is carried out based on a sample of customer profiles of real MFI. Ambiguous results were obtained. Depending on the formulation of the problem of classification of customers have advantage different algorithms descriptive analysis (CART, C4.5, Logit). At the same time, as you might expect, the non-interpreted predictive algorithm “Random Forest” provides the best quality of forecasts. According to the results of the analysis, it was revealed that the credit history of the borrower, as well as his age, is of great importance for the classification of MFI clients. Gender had no impact on the classification results. In addition, data from social networks turned out to be unimportant.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67832710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the Impact of News Tonality in International Media on the Russian Ruble Exchange Rate: Textual Analysis 国际媒体新闻调性对俄罗斯卢布汇率的影响:文本分析

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-264-289

D. Afanasyev, Jsc Greenatom, E. Fedorova, O. Rogov

{"title":"On the Impact of News Tonality in International Media on the Russian Ruble Exchange Rate: Textual Analysis","authors":"D. Afanasyev, Jsc Greenatom, E. Fedorova, O. Rogov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-264-289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-264-289","url":null,"abstract":"Economic, technological, ecological changes significantly adjust structure of power. Based on a regression analysis on 215 projects, solar and wind energy is defined of density of the relationship between factors influencing the investment (construction time and power stations, the number of households, that received electricity, emission of carbon gas power plants location on land, offshore). As a result of the determined significance per kilowatt capacity input; reduction of gas emissions per kilowatt; decrease due to the investments of the emission of one ton of CO2. Based on a comparison of actual data refuted the prevailing stereotype and proved that the subsidies per ton of oil equivalent consumption of fossil energy sources exceed renew able energy grant. Leasing, being one of the most complex financial instruments, successfully established itself in many sectors of the economy. The article presents a new methodology for determining the socio-economic efficiency of leasing in renewable energy. Leasing renewable energy statistics is generated in Europe and the calculations saved lives, spending on health and the environment related to the replacement of fossil energy with renewable sources and emissions into the atmosphere harmful substances. Used in article database includes data on renewable energy projects; analytical and statistical reports BP Statistical Review of World Energy; Renewables Global Status Report (REN21); Bloomberg New Energy Finance – New Energy Outlook; World Leasing Yearbook; Leaseurope Annual Reports; International Energy Agency; the results of the authors' surveys of the leasing market in Russia.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67831297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Barriers of the EAEU Common Market for Foreign Activity of Enterprises 欧亚经济联盟对外企业活动共同市场的壁垒

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-61-89

R. Volkov, Short-Term Forecasting, E. Sabelnikova, V. Salnikov, Marat Idrisov, S. Zhumabekova, Peter Piakucka

{"title":"Barriers of the EAEU Common Market for Foreign Activity of Enterprises","authors":"R. Volkov, Short-Term Forecasting, E. Sabelnikova, V. Salnikov, Marat Idrisov, S. Zhumabekova, Peter Piakucka","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-61-89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-61-89","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the results of EAEU key manufacturing enterprises survey aimed at identifying barriers for trade and economic cooperation within EAEU common market elimination of which is one of the key tasks for further integration in EAEU. The study focuses on issues of general availability of EAEU markets and specific barriers and obstacles on the EAEU common market.The approach of the study differs from previous ones in the following ways. Firstly we considered both exporting and not exporting enterprises. Secondly the UNCTAD non-tariff barriers classification being employed for survey external barriers list was strongly modified to simplify the interpretation of barriers by enterprises. Besides two quasi-barriers of high competition and lack of information were added.The survey results showed high availability and the absence of any crucial barriers within the EAEU common market: from 70 to 90% of them considered EAEU common market to be generally available despite two thirds out of them have indicated some or another barriers on the common market.The key barriers of the common market are quasi-barriers of hard competition and lack of information along with such non-tariff barriers as restrictions of competition, technical barriers and barriers and obstacles related to finance regulation.Given the survey results some recommendations are proposed to reduce the identified obstacles for EAEU industrial enterprises on the EAEU common market.The results of the study will be helpful in developing measures for boosting foreign trade activities and cooperation of both industrial enterprises and the EAEU member states on the whole.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67831339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Russian Food Market Transformation: Income and Substitution Effects 俄罗斯食品市场转型:收入与替代效应

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-605-623

E. Berendeeva

引用次数: 4