HSE Economic Journal最新文献_第10页

Energy Taxes and Their Contribution to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction 能源税及其对减少温室气体排放的贡献

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-290-313

I. Stepanov

{"title":"Energy Taxes and Their Contribution to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction","authors":"I. Stepanov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-290-313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-290-313","url":null,"abstract":"Traditionally, carbon tax and cap-and-trade system are considered to be the main incentive-based instruments to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, scientific and political discussions often neglect the role of other energy taxes that restrict the use of fossil fuels and implicitly put the price on carbon. However, the impact of any fiscal instrument on emissions does not solely depend on value and quality of the price signal (tax rate and tax base) but is subject to the scale of its application, i.e. the coverage of emissions. In most countries, other energy taxes (e.g. excises for motor fuels) historically have a wider institutional basis, cover a larger number of polluting entities in comparison to carbon tax or cap-and-trade, which started to develop rapidly only recently.The objective of the present research is to compare the contribution of «direct» price signals (carbon tax and cap-and-trade) to greenhouse gas emissions reduction against the backdrop of «indirect» ones (other energy taxes). On the basis of data for 30 European countries in 1995-2016, several fixed-effects panel regressions were estimated. The results indicate that the impact of other energy taxes on carbon intensity is twice as high as the impact of «direct» price signals. However, the impact of the «direct» price signals tends to increase with the time. The estimation made for 2005-2016 shows that even though both «direct» and «indirect» price signals had significant negative impact on carbon intensity, neither of them was stronger than the other.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67832418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Constructing a Financial Stress Index for Russia: New Approaches 构建俄罗斯金融压力指数的新途径

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-32-60

M. Stolbov

{"title":"Constructing a Financial Stress Index for Russia: New Approaches","authors":"M. Stolbov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-32-60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-32-60","url":null,"abstract":"The paper introduces a new monthly index of financial stress for Russia for the March 2008 – March 2018 period. The index is based on 12 well-established and mostly publicly available standalone metrics of financial instability, including credit-to-GDP gap, debt-service-ratio and real estate price index, provided by the BIS. I seek an optimal method to aggregate the metrics to derive a composite index. Based on the local projections technique [Jorda, 2005, 2009] and Bayesian model averaging, I show that conventional aggregation methods such as principal component analysis (PCA) can be outperformed by the approaches, better capturing the nonlinear and non-Gaussian nature of the standalone indicators of financial instability. Namely, the dynamic factor model with a single factor fares best of all the considered methods. The composite index based on the dynamic factor model accurately captures the dynamics of financial instability in the Russian financial sector, with the peaks occurring in the late 2008 and the late 2014 – early 2015. I also show that the financial stress index exerts an adverse effect on industrial production alongside the VIX index, explicitly accounting for oil prices, global and domestic indices of economic policy uncertainty as well as geopolitical risk. This negative effect of financial stress exhibits persistence in the medium run.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67831166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Survival of the Fittest? Measuring the Strength of Market Selection on the Example of the Urals Federal District 适者生存?市场选择力度的测度——以乌拉尔联邦区为例

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-90-117

I. Savin, O. Mariev, A. Pushkarev

{"title":"Survival of the Fittest? Measuring the Strength of Market Selection on the Example of the Urals Federal District","authors":"I. Savin, O. Mariev, A. Pushkarev","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-90-117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-90-117","url":null,"abstract":"It this article we analyze the strength of market selection for a wide range of industries in the Urals Federal District (UFD) and compare it with the results for several foreign countries. The empirical analysis is based on the Ruslana database provided by Bureau van Dijk (BvD) for the period from 2006 to 2015. For the first stage of the analysis, we resort to the well-discussed method of aggregated labor productivity decomposition at the industry level into two main processes, namely, the growth of productivity within the firm and the redistribution of market shares between firms on the market. The results obtained show that the industrial productivity growth is almost entirely explained by the increase in productivity at the level of the firms, while the role of market selection is negligible. However, due to a number of limitations of this approach, it would be incorrect to deny the significance of the competition as a whole. For this reason, at the second stage we consider the relationship between the growth of firms’ revenues and their productivity directly. Our results show that the role of market selection in explaining firm growth is small in Russia and is lower in comparison with developed countries. This result holds if instead of labour productivity one uses total factor productivity. The revealed weak interrelation indicates the need to improve industrial policy in the direction of increasing the efficiency of competition.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67831407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

The Balance of Payments and Russian Economic Growth 国际收支与俄罗斯经济增长

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-524-541

Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, C. A. Carrasco

{"title":"The Balance of Payments and Russian Economic Growth","authors":"Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, C. A. Carrasco","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-524-541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-524-541","url":null,"abstract":"Based on a demand-side approach, Thirlwall’s law claims that, in the long-run, economic growth is constrained by the balance of payments. Income elasticity of demand for exports should be greater than income elasticity of demand for imports in order to grow faster than the limit imposed by export demand. Accordingly, accurate estimations of income elasticities are necessary to identify these bounds. This research estimates export and import functions using bilateral trade data between Russia and 53 of its major partners. Then, we empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s law over the years 1996–2016, generalizing Thirlwall’s model in a bilateral panel framework. In addition, export and import functions are estimated taking into account export and import composition, controlling for key sectoral effects on aggregate elasticities. Using dynamic panel data models, the findings suggest that, on average, the Russian economy has been growing faster than what Thirlwall’s law predicts. The sectoral composition of the Russian external sector has eased the external constraint to growth. Russian exports still significantly consist of oil and gas, price inelastic goods, with positive effects on trade balance over the period of study. However, in a transition toward green energies, the allocation and investment of exports revenues is a key factor to address future scenarios where carbon-based resources lose relevance.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67832240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Efficiency Modeling of Russian Universities 俄罗斯大学效率模型研究

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-143-172

Зинченко Дарья, Егоров Алексей Алексеевич

引用次数: 0

On Wavelet Transform for Stock Price Modeling by Fuzzy Systems 小波变换在模糊系统股票价格建模中的应用

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-444-464

A. Brychykova, Elena Mogilevich, A. Shvedov

{"title":"On Wavelet Transform for Stock Price Modeling by Fuzzy Systems","authors":"A. Brychykova, Elena Mogilevich, A. Shvedov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-444-464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-444-464","url":null,"abstract":"Models for time series are very important for the stock market. Fuzzy Takagi – Sugeno models (functional fuzzy systems) are a promising and already common approach, in which different regression dependencies are used for different areas of variation of certain parameters, and soft switching is performed using the fuzzy logic rules. This is the advantage of this approach over conventional stochastic models. Each Takagi-Sugeno model is based on its set of fuzzy rules. These models can be viewed as a generalization of classical econometric models, if one such model corresponds to one fuzzy rule. This paper studies the possibility of using the wavelet transform and fuzzy Takagi – Sugeno model to analyze the dynamics of stock prices for the following Russian companies: Gazprom, Sberbank, Magnit, Yandex and Aeroflot; this approach was previously used to study some foreign stock markets. Wavelet analysis quite often acts as a tool for signal processing, including time series, as it allows for a multi-level approximation. In this paper, the Takagi – Sugeno model is based on untransformed data as well as data transformed using Haar wavelets. Fuzzy clustering is used to construct membership functions. Calculations show that the use of wavelets often improves the predictive characteristics of the model.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67832444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the Consequences of the Pension Reform in Russia in a Global CGE-OLG Model 基于全球CGE-OLG模型的俄罗斯养老金改革后果评估

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-384-417

A. Zubarev, K. Nesterova

{"title":"Assessing the Consequences of the Pension Reform in Russia in a Global CGE-OLG Model","authors":"A. Zubarev, K. Nesterova","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-384-417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-384-417","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims at modeling the proposed 5-year rise in retirement age for Russian economy. The primary goal of the paper is to analyze the effect of this pension reform on the major macroeconomic features of the Russian economy as well as benefits and losses of different age group of agents. The problem is solved by making simulations in the setting of a global CGE-OLG model. The proposed model takes into account the long-run demographic trends forecasted by the UN as well as the budget structure of each of the 17 regions included: consumption taxes, income tax, payroll tax, corporate tax and natural revenues and expenditures on education, healthcare, pensions and other spending. Having overlapping generation is the model allows us to estimate changes in welfare of different age groups of agents from any economic policy. The results of the simulations show that the effect of raising the retirement age on economic growth appears to be limited. However, we observe an increase in the level of consumption and welfare for all the generation except for those that are close to reaching the retirement age when the reform is implemented. A more pronounced effect of raising the retirement age is that it helps keeping the government budget balanced in the long run. As an alternative a gradual pension system capitalization scenario is considered.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67832361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

The Determinants of Private Investment in Russia: The Role of Corporate Income Tax 俄罗斯私人投资的决定因素:企业所得税的作用

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-542-561

A. Votinov, M. Elkina, I. Nikonov

引用次数: 2

Age and Wage: Stylized Facts and Russian Evidence 年龄和工资:程式化的事实和俄罗斯的证据

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-185-237

Гимпельсон Владимир Ефимович

{"title":"Age and Wage: Stylized Facts and Russian Evidence","authors":"Гимпельсон Владимир Ефимович","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-185-237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-185-237","url":null,"abstract":"Данное исследование посвящено различиям в заработной плате между возрастными группами российских работников. Существуют многочисленные эмпирические свидетельства того, что в развитых странах зарплата растет монотонно, хотя и с затухающим темпом, на протяжении почти всей трудовой жизни. Такая форма профиля считается стилизованным фактом и получила свое объяснение в ряде влиятельных экономических теорий, среди которых особое место принадлежит теории человеческого капитала. Однако недавние исследования в менее развитых странах не подтверждают универсальность подобных выводов. Исследования, проведенные в России, также сеют сомнения в том, что заработная плата всегда растет монотонно.В данной статье с использованием разных российских источников массовых данных за 2005-2015 гг. рассматриваются различия в зарплате между возрастными группами. Согласно им, повозрастной профиль выглядит «нестандартно». Это проявляется в том, что зарплата растет у 20-летних и 30- летних, после чего она начинает быстро снижаться. В статье предлагается объяснение этого явления через анализ повозрастных изменений в различных компонентах человеческого капитала. Среди последних выделяются уровень формального образования, интенсивность обучения и переобучения после завершения формального образования, развитость когнитивных и некогнитивных навыков, степень использования полученных знаний и навыков в повседневной трудовой деятельности. Ни один из этих компонентов не показывает такого монотонного роста с возрастом, который мог бы сделать профиль заработка более «стандартным». Наблюдаемая «нестандартность» профиля может быть связана не с возрастом, а с принадлежностью индивидов к определенным возрастным когортам. Хотя строгое разделение эффектов возраста, поколения и периода наблюдения требует специального исследования, приводимые в статье свидетельства позволяют предположить, что эффект возраста сохраняется.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67831023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Transformation of Pricing in the Gas Industry As a Way to Stimulate Russia's Economic Development 天然气行业价格改革是刺激俄罗斯经济发展的一种方式

HSE Economic Journal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-562-584

A. Makarov, V. Kulagin, A. Galkina, T. Mitrova

引用次数: 1