HSE Economic Journal最新文献

{"title":"A Nexus Among Technology Input, Research Activity, Innovation, and Economic Growth: A vis-à-vis Analysis between Asia and Europe","authors":"M. Pandey, K. Shekhawat, I. Sergeeva, O. Orlova","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-1-122-147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-1-122-147","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67840491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors Affecting the Intention to Use Digital Banking Services: A Case Study on Elderly Customers in Vietnam","authors":"Tran Thị Thanh Nga","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-270-289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-270-289","url":null,"abstract":"Based on Technology Acceptance Theory (TAM) and Linear Structural Model (SEM), the author predicts factors affecting the intention to use digital banking of customers from 50 years old in Vietnam. For this study, 350 valid responses out of 398 survey participants have been collected and utilized for data analysis, digital banking are found easy to use, helpful, reliable, and less risky for elderly customers, which might increase the elderly’s demands and intentions to use them. Regarding the behaviors of elderly customers, this study will provide an insight into elderly customers’ expectations accessing digital banking services during the COVID-19 pandemic in emerging markets. Furthermore, the researcher proposes an integrated model to predict behaviors and examines main.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136367669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"RCEP Impact on Economic Links between PRC and Japan","authors":"V. Zuev, E. Ostrovskaya, M. Kuznetsov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-248-269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-248-269","url":null,"abstract":"The growing economic potential and the size of the market have turned China into the main trading partner of many countries, including Japan. Japan, in turn, provides a leading rolein the technological and investment cooperation of the Asia-Pacific countries, including China. However, until recently, the two leading Asian economies were not linked by an FTA Agreement, even though such agreements dominate international trade. The situation is being changed by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), which entered into force in January 2022, creating new conditions for the development of foreign economic relations in the region. Prerequisites are being formed for a radical change in the situation, fundamentally re­versing the decades-long predominance of trade with the EU and the US in fast-growing Asian markets. The leading Asian countries are forming a space for the growth of mutual trade due to the promotion of preferential market access. By becoming part of the world's largest free trade zone, China and Japan are creating new growth points, primarily in trade for Japan and in expan­ding access to innovation and investment for China, which is of particular importance in a period of global instability and recession, trade wars, and geopolitical transformations.The purpose of the article is to determine the significance of the RCEP Agreement in trade and economic cooperation between China and Japan.The study hypothesizes that the participation of the two largest economies of the region in the RCEP is based on the deep mutual strategic interest of the partners: On the part of Japan, it is projected in a significant increase in exports to the capacious market of the People's Republic of China while on the part of the People's Republic of China, it is expressed in the possibility of pro­viding additional investment inflows and accelerating innovative development in key in dustries.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136371412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is There a Weekend Effect? Russian Stock Market Research Based on Fuzzy Systems","authors":"V. Sviyazov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-412-434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-412-434","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of volatility forecasting with and without consideration of weekly seasonality effect (the weekend effect) is examined in this research. The question of the seasonality existence is understood in the following sense: do models, which incorporate seasonality, feature better forecasts? The fuzzy GARCH model, which accounts for a weekly seasonality effect is presented in the paper. This model is based on the ordinary GARCH model but allows for the use different dependences in different clusters (both of volatility and seasonality), as well as for the so-called soft switching between the clusters. The suggested method is applied to two indices, which can be deemed as indicators of the Russian stock market condition. The indices are the MOEX Russia Index and the RTS Index. The proposed model is challenged against a fuzzy model without seasonality and a classic GARCH model. The conducted calculations suggest that there is no significant improvement of a forecast if a seasonality is embedded into the fuzzy GARCH model. Fuzzy models show comparable results with regards to the conventional autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. Thus, fuzzy models can be used along with traditional models, however day of the week consideration doesn’t yield a greater quality of volatility forecasts, at least on the samples used. The fuzzy GARCH model may be useful for financial risks estimation and for evaluation of the Value at Risk metric in particular.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135157060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing an OLG Model with Heterogeneous Preferences and Learning Abilities for Higher Education Policy Analysis","authors":"A. Shpilevaya, A. Polbin, S. Sinelnikov-Murylev","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-449-469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-449-469","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a model of overlapping generations with heterogeneous preferences and higher education sector for a representative country where the Unified State Examination (USE) is taken. Unlike other models that study the accumulation of human capital based on the assumption of homogeneity of the parameters of individuals' preferences, in the proposed model heterogeneity is introduced when describing the abilities of individuals, approximated by Unified State Exam scores, risk aversion and intertemporal discounting under conditions of uncertainty. The purpose of this work is to develop and construct a model on which a methodology for as ses-sing strategies (rather than specific options) for the development of the education system can be based in the ideology of general equilibrium models. This article has developed an apparatus for analyzing strategies for the development of the education sector, which can be refined and finalized to analyze specific detailed options for transformations in the field of education.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135157982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macrofinance: The Sigmoidal Dynamics of Money, Debt and Wealth","authors":"A. Smirnov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-317-363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-3-317-363","url":null,"abstract":"The compact model of an integrated macro-financial system, proposed in the paper, represents the dynamics of money, debt and wealth. Aristotle had observed the contradictory nature of these economic indicators, which is also evident in the current phase of global financialization, particularly in the use of “deferred” assets accounts by central banks.In the model, macrofinancial assets, liabilities and real wealth are balanced by considering the dual attributes of money, defined as standard for either “deferred” or current payments. The circulation of liquidity between the financial and real segments of the money market links the accumulation of genuine wealth with the formation of macrodebt, representing the expected but unrealized wealth. The volume of financial contracts is measured in the model by the system’s characteristic time, which determines the repayment dates of obligations. Since the financial subsystem does not produce tangible goods, wealth accumulation occurs in the aggregated real market over calendar time. The dynamics of money, debt and wealth dynamics are modeled using logistic ordinary differential equations, resulting in three-dimensional surfaces representing macrofinancial indices such as total, financial and real wealth, as well as credit and “marginal” wealth calculated under full repayment of obligations.The model is parametrized using empirical data and illustrated with numerical examples. The system’s behavior is studied based on initial values of real resources, liquidity, rates of return and money issuance, and average liability maturities. The model demonstrates that finance can indeed multiply social wealth, thereby enhancing the efficiency of money transformation into capital (real resources). Excess liquidity in the financial market can coexist with a deficit in the real segment of the money market, and vice versa. The intersection of surfaces representing general and financial wealth indices corresponds to a state of “money neutrality” characterized by zero growth in real resources. Different combinations of interest rates and money emission ratios can lead to deviations from a balanced trajectory, potentially generating various critical phenomena, including resonance-like effects. The model allows for evaluating some negative consequences of financialization, such as the appearance of a “hump” on the surface of long- term liabilities caused by excessive borrowing.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135157988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Stochastic Forecasting in the Deterministic Model of the Russian Banking System","authors":"S. Radionov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-1-33-48","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-1-33-48","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67840502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of Central Counterparty Risk Assessment Approaches","authors":"A. Potapov, M. Kurbangaleev","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-196-219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-196-219","url":null,"abstract":"The exchange uses statistical risk models to estimate derivatives' margin requirements. These models may use rough simplifications to speed up and simplify the calculation of margin requirements for open positions. Such simplifications include: limitation of the set of risk factors taken into account, use of simple distribution functions and assumption of zero or fixed correlation between risk factors. The paper assesses the impact of these simplifications on the assignned margin level. To achieve this, several models of varying complexity have been built to esti­mate the risk of positions in futures and options. The list of models includes those used in practice (the Moscow Exchange model, the Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk), as well as stochastic ones. The confidence level of the models’ results measured by the share of realized losses exceeding the level of margin requirements. The burden on the exchange participants estimated by using different models and compared by the distribution and the average value of the margin requirements. The results of the study show that simplifications proposed in practice can lead to an underestimation of the risk of changes in the value of instruments, not allowed by Principle 7 of paragraph 3 of the CPSS - IOSCO 2012. No systematic underestimation occurs when using the stochastic model, consideration of the correlation of risk factors in this case is critical. It is also found that, in average, margin estimates based on the stochastic model lower than those of the Moscow Exchange, which can be interpreted as a lower burden on the exchange's clients.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136372657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Income Inequality and Natural Resource Endowment in the Russia's Regions","authors":"T. Ivakhnenko","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-220-247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-220-247","url":null,"abstract":"This article evaluates the impact of natural resources on income inequality in the Russia’s regions using the relative indicator of natural resource endowment - the share of the extractive sector in the GVA of the region, which is interpreted as a dependence of the region's economy on the extraction of natural resources. The results of the evaluation of panel models with region and time fixed effects show that there was a nonlinear relationship between natural resource endowment and within-region income inequality in 79 Russia’s regions for the period 2004-2020: natural resources contributed to the mitigation of income inequality when their share in the structure of the economy was less than 30%, but with further growth of the resource sector, the effect changed to the opposite. Estimates from the subsamples showed that for 10 regions where the average share of employment in the extractive sector for the period exceeded 4%, natural resources contributed to the growth of income inequality. The probable reason for this result is the polarization of the labor market in resource-rich regions. At the same time, for the remaining 69 regions, the effect of natural resource endowment was significant and negative for income inequality. For groups of regions engaged in the extraction of certain types of resour­ces - coal, oil and gas, metal ores, a nonlinear effect was maintained. Thus, we can talk about the mitigating effect of natural resources for income inequality in those regions where the economy is not heavily dependent on the resource extraction. The results of the study can be used to deve­lop economic policy in different regions of Russia.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136372653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"About Scientometric Rankings and Journal BACchanalia","authors":"A. Rubinstein","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-290-305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2023-27-2-290-305","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the results of historical and methodological research into the formation of special lists of economic journals of RSCI and VAK, and a comparative analysis of these lists. It is shown that each of them is based on Scientometric indicators and almost identical methods of calculating journal rankings. However, the goals pursued, and the nature of such lists are quite different: in one case the journal lists of RSCI are strictly informative in nature, in the other case they are formed by the Ministry of Education and Science and the Higher Attestation Commission as an obligatory norm for candidates for a Ph. At the same time, the widely divergent results of the ranking of journals raise the most serious doubts about their adequacy to scientific realities. It is shown that these doubts relate to the correctness of the information resource application: an unreasonably expansive interpretation of the indicators themselves and, most im­portantly, the use of a combination of objective Scientometric indicators and subjective expert evaluations when constructing the rankings. It is not an easy task to combine two different types of information in a single integral rating. Its solution, first of all, requires the involvement of competent and independent experts. Perhaps an open democratic procedure of selecting such a group of experts or defining a representative sample from a large array of specialists is needed. It is necessary to use an adequate algorithm of aggregation of two different types of information. Arbitrary selection of weights is simply unacceptable here. One of the final conclusions of the article is related to the recommendation to abolish VAK requirements to any journal lists or to transfer these functions to their own Academic Councils of universities and academic institutions.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136367662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}