HSE Economic Journal最新文献

{"title":"Method for Analyzing Economic Processes in Conditions of Instability (on the Example of Analyzing the Dynamics of Revenue of Russian Companies)","authors":"Yu. A. Polunin, A. Yudanov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-622-649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-622-649","url":null,"abstract":"New methods are proposed that allow using the properties of nonlinear dynamics models to analyze the dynamics of real socio-economic processes. For this, a complex of models has been developed in the form of connected nonlinear one-dimensional and multidimensional map pings that meet the general laws of socio-economic processes - development in a rapidly changing environment under resource constraints. The proposed set of models allows you to analyze the dynamics of processes under the assumptions of both their independence and interconnection with each other. The definition of interrelated processes is introduced as processes developing under conditions of general constraints. Three criteria are proposed for identifying interrelated processes based on empirical data. In the case of interrelation of processes, the parameters of one-dimensional and multidimensional models are also interrelated, which allows a deeper analysis of the situations under consideration. The use of the proposed method is demonstrated by the example of analyzing the dynamics of revenue of Russian companies in the pe­riod from 2006 to 2015 (38 thousand companies in total). All companies were divided into four groups, depending on the rate of revenue growth from 2010 to 2015. The hypothesis of a possible relationship between the decline of one and the parallel strengthening of another group of Russian firms after the crisis of 2008-2009 is investigated and rejected. Innovative firms that boosted their revenue growth potential after the crisis were targeting markets other than con ser­vative firms whose revenue growth potential was exhausted after the crisis. The peculiarities of the dynamics of revenue of groups of companies are visually presented in the form of normalized values, when the median estimates of each of the groups in 2007 are taken as a unit.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67834630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soft Budget Constraints and Investment Support in Estonian Agriculture","authors":"O. Aleksandrova","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-1-85-100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-1-85-100","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the question of the financial constraints in Estonian dairy and crop farms in the transition period, and there are also identified the farms that have been mostly affected by these imperfections. For that, an investment accelerator model augmented with a cash flow variable was used. The empirical analysis is based on the unbalanced panel data containing 2263 dairy and 1762 crop farms in the period between 2000 and 2014. We have three periods of 5 years each: 2000-2004 (the pre-EU accession), 2005-2009 (being an EU member before the economic crisis), 2010-2014 (after the economic crisis). We used these periods to construct the fixed effect and random effect models for different types of farm: dairy and crop farms. In addition to the full sample estimate, we use farms characteristics to classify crop farms by area, and dairy farms by the average number of cows per year. The estimations of the standard augmented model obtained by different econometric methods for several subsamples have revealed a dissimilar level of the financial constraints. The obtained results clearly imply that the farm investment behavior is driven by the competitive output market conditions and the farm abilities to sell output and invest in such a market environment. Moreover, except for all farms farm the gross investment is positively and significantly associated with the cash flow, confirming for any farms the absence of the soft budget constraints for the farms. The results confirm that the financial variables significantly influence the farms’ investment subsidy, providing an empirical evidence of an imperfect capital market in the Estonian agriculture.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67833523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Greenfield-FDI on Socio-Economic Development of Pakistan","authors":"A. Raza, M. Azam, M. Tariq","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-3-415-433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-3-415-433","url":null,"abstract":"A multinational corporation usually invests in foreign countries in two modes of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) encompasses, Greenfield-FDI (GFDI) and Merger & Acquisition (M&A). Mostly Asian countries have experienced improved economic growth from the incoming Green­ field-FDI. The existing studies reveal that GFDI plays undeniably a very important role in the process of economic growth and economic development of a host country's economic performance. Thus, the goal of this study is to know the effect of GFDI inflow on education, health, living standard, and economic development for Pakistan, while using data set from 1990-2018. This study used the Correlation matrix, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and Philips Peron (PP) tests for unit root, Auto Distributive Lag model (ARDL), and Error Correction Model (ECM) as estimation techniques. The empirical results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between GFDI, health, and economic development by Human Development Index (HDI) only. In the long-run GFDI, remittances, and foreign trade have positive, while foreign aid by Official Development Assistance (ODA) and inflation rate negatively affect the life expectancy index, which might mean negative health effects. These findings suggest some important policy measures can be adopted to take more benefits of FDI and stimulate economic growth and socio-economic development.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67834415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"«An Imaginary Patient» or What Should Be the Financing of Patronized Goods","authors":"A. Rubinstein","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-3-434-464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-3-434-464","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67834427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russia’s Budgetary System: How Much Sustainable?","authors":"А. Mikhaylova, E. Timushev","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-572-597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-572-597","url":null,"abstract":"The article clarifies the concept of fiscal sustainability and its main indicators and assesses fiscal sustainability of Russian regions. The topic is chosen due to importance of managing the risks of the budgetary system ceasing to perform its functions. Academic research and regulatory documents are reviewed, and the IMF data are analyzed. The paper distinguishes between fiscal and debt sustainability. It is established that fiscal sustainability means a functioning of the budgetary system when achievement of its goals in the present does not reduce achievability of the goals in the future. Debt sustainability provides the conditions for countercyclical fiscal policy, an essential element of fiscal sustainability. Thus, fiscal sustainability depends not so much on the amount of debt, but on the fiscal and public administration institutions. Russia's fiscal sustainability risks are highest at the regional level, where the authorities have a small amount of powers, including the regulation of debt parameters. New federal governmental methodology for assessing the regional debt sustainability (article 107.1 of the Bud­get code) reflects creditworthiness, provides flexibility and correctly differentiates regulatory measures based on the amount of debt. However, it does not fully reflect the institutional and economic aspects (which we propose to include in our fiscal sustainability index (FSI)), but further restricts fiscal independence of lagging regions. We conclude that it is more effective to limit only the debt powers of those regions without additional restrictions on spending.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88148829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lending to Russian Small Businesses: From a Traditional to a Partnership-based Banking Model","authors":"N. Egorova, E. Koroleva","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-191-214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-191-214","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67833332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Income Inequality in Russia. Measurement Based on Equivalent Income","authors":"A. Surinov, A. Luppov","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-539-571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-539-571","url":null,"abstract":"The relevance of the research, the results of which are presented in this article, is conditioned by the attention in society that is given today to the development of effective policy in the field of poverty eradication and inequality reduction at the global and national levels.The purpose of the article is to analyze the acceptability of using the equivalence scalesused in the EU and OECD in Russia, based on the characteristics of consumption of its population and to obtain the additional consistent to international practice indictors which assess poverty and inequality based on official statistics which are available to users. Equivalent income research on inequality and poverty is a widespread experience international organizations and national agencies abroad. However, in Russia, it has not received proper application. The only example is the estimation of the risk of poverty and social exclusion, by Rosstat which has implemented the Eurostat methodology.The study revealed that the use of the value of the equivalent income as a criteria of households significantly changes the composition of population groups in the social hierarchy. Thus, the poorest strata of the population with the minimum values of the equivalent incomelevels are more likely to include older people and to a lesser extent children compared to the groups of households according to the nominal income per capita. At the same time, the characteristics of income distribution, such as the Gini Index and Palma Ratio, practically do not change their values. Therefore, the inclusion of an equivalent income in the analysis of inequality and poverty makes it possible to identify additional characteristics and socially significant aspects of these phenomena and take them into account accordingly when developing policy measures and targeted support for needy groups of the population.The framework of the calculations that were performed in the study was the files of anonymized microdata available from a sample survey of population income and social programs participation, which were taken from the website of the Federal State Statistics Service.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67834525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial Repression in a DSGE Model with Financial Frictions","authors":"M. Elkina, S. Pekarski","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-475-502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-4-475-502","url":null,"abstract":"To explore the role of financial frictions for macroeconomic policy transmission, this paper compares macroeconomic effects of tightening financial repression in the standard medium-scale DSGE model which assumes perfect capital markets and the one with financial frictions. Introducing financial frictions into the model deepens negative impact of financial repression on private investment, it but leads to weaker initial negative response in output. This result is driven by two effects. Firstly, in the model with financial frictions, investment is more sensitive to changes in the economic activity because negative shock worsens financial health of entrepreneurs and leads to tighter borrowing conditions. Secondly, in the model with financial frictions, the problem of households who consume and save and that of entrepreneurs who invest in capital are considered separately. Financial repression reduces return on capital, which further worsens financial stance of entrepreneurs, but does not impact return received by creditors because it is fixed in the contract. Hence, the impact of financial repression on households and their consumption is smaller in the model with financial frictions. In the consumption-led economy the overall effect on output is less prominent if we model financial market explicitly. Quantitatively, this effect can be quite substantial, so we conclude that analysis of financial repression effects calls for explicit modeling of financial market and its specific characteristics despite possible benefits of a simpler model. Furthermore, when compared to various distortionary taxation measures as a way to finance an increase in government purchases, financial repression produces lower fiscal multipliers.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72440506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Fatherhood Wage Premium in Russia","authors":"Ощепков Алексей Юрьевич","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-157-190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-157-190","url":null,"abstract":"Положение и поведение взрослых индивидов на рынке труда тесно взаимосвязано с наличием у них детей. Исследования традиционно показывают, что у женщин дети вызывают сокращение предложения труда и заработков. Менее исследованный вопрос - как дети влияют на мужчин? В данной работе анализируется связь между заработной платой и детьми у российских мужчин с использованием панельных микроданных РМЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ за 2010-2018 гг. В среднем за рассматриваемый период мужчины, имеющие детей, получали примерно на 25% больше, чем мужчины без детей, что указывает на заметную «премию» за отцовство. Оценивая уравнения заработной платы с учетом индивидуальных фиксированных эффектов, мы показываем, что после контроля различий между отцами и не отцами в наблюдаемых социально-демографических и ненаблюдаемых индивидуальных характеристиках преимущество отцов в оплате труда полностью исчезает. Это говорит о том, что оно полностью объясняется (само)отбором изначально более производительных мужчин в отцы, а как таковой «премии» за отцовство в России не существует. Однако оценивание моделей, учитывающих возраст и количество детей, а также их биологическое родство с мужчиной, все же позволяет выявить небольшую - в размере 2,5-3%, - но статистически значимую зарплатную «премию» за одного биологически родного ребенка в возрасте до трех лет. Мы показываем, что эта «премия» не связана с возможным обратным влиянием роста заработной платы мужчины на решение завести ребенка и может частично объясняться усилением гендерной специализации труда внутри домохозяйства после появления ребенка. Дополнительно мы находим у российских мужчин, состоящих в официальном браке, супружескую «премию» в размере около 3%.","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67833582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Russian Electricity Reform: Achievements and Unresolved Issues","authors":"Jakov Urinson, Igor Kozhukhovski, I. Sorokin, Russian Energy Agency","doi":"10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-3-323-339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-3-323-339","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37657,"journal":{"name":"HSE Economic Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67834594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}