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Belt and Road Initiative for Ten Years: Impact and Prospect “一带一路”倡议十年:影响与展望
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167455
Biliang Hu
{"title":"Belt and Road Initiative for Ten Years: Impact and Prospect","authors":"Biliang Hu","doi":"10.1177/09749101231167455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101231167455","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":"15 1","pages":"163 - 164"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41803232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of the Belt and Road Infrastructure Development on the Economic Growth of the Partner Countries “一带一路”基础设施建设对伙伴国经济增长的影响
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167454
Zhihua Chen
{"title":"The Impact of the Belt and Road Infrastructure Development on the Economic Growth of the Partner Countries","authors":"Zhihua Chen","doi":"10.1177/09749101231167454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101231167454","url":null,"abstract":"As of July 2022, China has signed more than 200 cooperation agreements on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with 149 countries and 32 international organizations. This research aims to explore the impact of the infrastructure development of this initiative on the economic growth of countries participating in the BRI. Based on the panel data of 130 participating countries and 46 other countries from 2006 to 2019, the difference-in-difference (DID) model and multiple robustness tests were used for empirical evaluation. We found a positive correlation between BRI and the economic growth of BRI-cooperating countries. The heterogeneity test results show that BRI has a more prominent role in promoting the economic growth of upper-middle-income and high-income countries with relatively good industrial foundations. The impact of improved infrastructure development through BRI accounted for 88.42% of the total mediating effect, which is much more significant than promoting industrial upgrading and enhancing innovation capacity. These results support the view that BRI should continue to advance infrastructure development to boost the economic growth of developing countries.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":"15 1","pages":"254 - 272"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46113288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Belt and Road Initiative: Inclusive Globalization and Poverty Reduction “一带一路”倡议倡议：包容性全球化与减贫
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167448
Pompeo Della Posta
{"title":"The Belt and Road Initiative: Inclusive Globalization and Poverty Reduction","authors":"Pompeo Della Posta","doi":"10.1177/09749101231167448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101231167448","url":null,"abstract":"The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to increase connectivity between regions and countries that market forces excluded from the previous wave of economic globalization. Foreign direct investment (FDI) can create the conditions for the economic takeoff of least-developed countries (LDCs) and developing countries. Although Chinese FDI has nearly doubled since the launch of the BRI in 2013 compared to 2005–2013, it does not seem to be directed toward BRI member countries more than the non-member countries. One exception is South American BRI member countries, which have significantly increased their FDI inflows from China. This is not the case, however, for West Asian countries, where FDI growth has been lower for BRI countries than for the West Asian countries as a whole, and especially for sub-Saharan BRI countries, for which the amount of FDI has even decreased compared to the 2005–2013 period. The BRI’s slow start and the countries’ gradual entry may explain the delay in seeing the positive results expected from it reflected in the data.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":"15 1","pages":"273 - 288"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49579560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation in Host Countries: Evidence from Countries Along the Belt and Road 中国对外直接投资与东道国创新——来自一带一路沿线国家的证据
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167356
Yanyan Sun, Shan Fan
{"title":"Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation in Host Countries: Evidence from Countries Along the Belt and Road","authors":"Yanyan Sun, Shan Fan","doi":"10.1177/09749101231167356","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101231167356","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign direct investment (FDI) can benefit innovation activity in host countries through spillover channels, such as reverse engineering, demonstration effects, and supplier–customer relationships. Using data from 26 countries along the Belt and Road route (BRCs) and 32 non-BRCs, we identified positive causal effects of the Chinese outward FDI on the innovation capacities in technology-intensive industries of both BRCs and non-BRCs. However, this effect varies depending on the host countries’ economic development levels. The impact of Chinese OFDI on the general innovation performance in host countries is absent. Meanwhile, the implementation of the BRI has on the whole, a negative impact on BRCs’ innovation performance.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":"15 1","pages":"234 - 253"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47006505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Inflation and Its Uncertainty: Evidence from Indonesia and the Philippines 通货膨胀及其不确定性：来自印度尼西亚和菲律宾的证据
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2023-04-18 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221149873
H. Kuncoro
{"title":"Inflation and Its Uncertainty: Evidence from Indonesia and the Philippines","authors":"H. Kuncoro","doi":"10.1177/09749101221149873","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221149873","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty under the inflation-targeting regime in Indonesia and the Philippines over 2005(7)–2021(12). The Kernel density function and entropy index applications reveal that the price level in both countries is heterogeneous. The non-linear quantile regression estimation shows that inflation affects inflation uncertainty positively. Inflation more likely induces its uncertainty in higher quantiles. The effect exhibits an inconsistent linearity property. While the symmetric behavior holds in the Philippines, inflation in the case of Indonesia affects the inflation uncertainty differently, not only inter-quantiles but also intra-quantiles. Given that Indonesia and the Philippines have low inflation rates relative to other emerging markets, our findings suggest that announcing higher inflation targets may be costly to provoke higher inflation uncertainty. Accordingly, controlling inflation uncertainty in the inflation-targeting regime can be achieved if monetary policy is credible and independent.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47943050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Indian Experience of Managing Impossible Trinity, Growth and Possible Tradeoff Between FDI and FIIs: Nature of Capital Inflows Matter 印度管理外国直接投资和外国直接投资之间不可能的三位一体、增长和可能的权衡的经验：资本流入的本质
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221129897
S. Padhi
{"title":"Indian Experience of Managing Impossible Trinity, Growth and Possible Tradeoff Between FDI and FIIs: Nature of Capital Inflows Matter","authors":"S. Padhi","doi":"10.1177/09749101221129897","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221129897","url":null,"abstract":"The current focus emphasizes the difficult choices faced by Indian management of the impossible trinity to manage import-led growth. The management highlights two mechanisms by which FDI (foreign direct investment) flows are easily substituted for short-run FII (foreign institutional investment) flows. First, GDP and its growth in an open economy framework and the associated international trade participation can clarify this substitution prospect. Specifically, this study develops reasoning whereby imports under the trilemma management can give some decisive advantage to FII at the cost of FDI to manage Indian import-led growth. Second, it underlines how the related policies, especially the sterilization interventions, constrain the interactions of higher domestic investments (domestic savings), spillover impacts of imports of intermediate and capital goods, and specialized FDI. If so, the Indian economy’s import-led growth can indicate FII and FDI tradeoffs. The study uses the ARDL regression method. The results show that the Indian policy-led macro environment can limit the scope of specialized FDI that aims to induce advanced domestic investment, exports, and FDI interactions. India’s focus on import-led growth thereby underpins how FII substitutes FDI.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46717369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development in Selected MENA Region Countries: Panel ARDL Approach 选定中东和北非地区国家的外国直接投资和金融发展:小组ARDL方法
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221129387
Ahlam El Fakiri, Kenza Cherkaoui
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development in Selected MENA Region Countries: Panel ARDL Approach","authors":"Ahlam El Fakiri, Kenza Cherkaoui","doi":"10.1177/09749101221129387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221129387","url":null,"abstract":"This article empirically examines the linkage between foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development (FD) in 16 selected countries of the MENA region (Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malta, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates) over the period 2000–2018. The research investigates the long- and short-run effects of FD on FDI inflows using panel ARDL. This model is based on the dynamic fixed effect (DFE) estimator. The article employs three proxies of FD as developed by the IMF, namely, the overall financial development (OFD), financial markets’ development (FM), and financial institutions’ development proxy (FI). The purpose was to analyze the impact of FD by covering the depth, efficiency, and access to financial markets and their institutions. The findings suggest that even though no significant relationship is established in the short run, the long-run coefficients of the overall FD proxy and FM proxy are positive and statistically significant. The estimates suggest that a 1% increase in the overall FD proxy and FM proxy results in an increase of 172% and 150% of FDI inflows to MENA region countries, respectively.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44314044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of Free Trade Area on Trade, Revenue and Welfare in Nigeria 自由贸易区对尼日利亚贸易、收入和福利的影响
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221128683
N. Chukwu, A. Omeje, K. Ofoezie, M. O. Ugwu, Augustine Jideofor
{"title":"Impact of Free Trade Area on Trade, Revenue and Welfare in Nigeria","authors":"N. Chukwu, A. Omeje, K. Ofoezie, M. O. Ugwu, Augustine Jideofor","doi":"10.1177/09749101221128683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221128683","url":null,"abstract":"This study offers an analytical evaluation of the effects of Free Trade Area (FTA) agreements on trade, revenue, and welfare in Nigeria. The study applied World-Integrated Trade Solution/Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART), anchored on a partial equilibrium model (PEM) for its simulations. The study simulated 100% tariff elimination on selected products under Harmonized System (HS)-2 classification code sourced from Trade Analysis Information Systems (TRAINS) and Common Format for Transient Data Exchange (COMTRADE). The study’s findings show that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will benefit Nigeria’s economy from trade creation estimated at US$8,860.419 million, including a favorable welfare gain to the value of US$740.571 million. Nevertheless, Nigeria will sustain losses in trade revenue, valued at US$6,142.061 million. The study recommends proficient revenue management and well-diversified revenue collection sources, such as improvement in Value Added Tax and Ad-Valorem duty, to cushion the effects of the revenue loss resulting from tariff elimination in the FTA.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42252146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Effect of Financial Development on Unemployment in Emerging Market Countries 新兴市场国家金融发展对失业的影响
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-10-04 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221116715
I. Raifu, J. Afolabi
{"title":"The Effect of Financial Development on Unemployment in Emerging Market Countries","authors":"I. Raifu, J. Afolabi","doi":"10.1177/09749101221116715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221116715","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the effect of financial development on unemployment in 19 emerging market countries, considering their age groups and gender dichotomy. The data covers the period from 1991–2019. Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Dynamic OLS, and quantile regression via moments were employed as the estimation methods. Robustness was tested with Fully Modified OLS and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) estimation methods. Our results show that financial development has a conditional mean reducing effect on unemployment and a reducing effect on the distribution of unemployment. However, the reducing effect of financial development on the distribution of unemployment varies across the working-age population and youths. Thus, there is a need to formulate and implement a long-term financial policy to ensure economic growth and guarantee employment for the working-age population and the youths irrespective of gender.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":"15 1","pages":"354 - 384"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42367595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
The Empirical Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Episodes 外国直接投资事件的经验决定因素
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221116720
Muhammad Imran, A. Rashid
{"title":"The Empirical Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Episodes","authors":"Muhammad Imran, A. Rashid","doi":"10.1177/09749101221116720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221116720","url":null,"abstract":"This article classifies the extreme gross foreign direct investment (FDI) flow episodes into four types. It empirically investigates the determinants of each type by estimating complementary log-log (Clog–log) and probit regressions for 50 developing economies over the period 1990–2018. We document that domestic GDP growth rate, inflation, institutional quality, and human capital are the major empirical drivers of FDI flows. The world uncertainty index (WUI) is negatively associated with FDI inflows toward developing countries. Moreover, we find that the domestic GDP growth rate is positively associated with the probability of having FDI surge and FDI flight. In contrast, inflation is negatively linked with FDI surge episodes. These findings provide a better understanding of the empirical determinants of FDI flows to and from developing countries. The findings also help to understand the behavior of FDI extreme movements.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":"15 1","pages":"409 - 435"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45434311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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