The Impact of the Belt and Road Infrastructure Development on the Economic Growth of the Partner Countries

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI:10.1177/09749101231167454

Zhihua Chen

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Abstract

As of July 2022, China has signed more than 200 cooperation agreements on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with 149 countries and 32 international organizations. This research aims to explore the impact of the infrastructure development of this initiative on the economic growth of countries participating in the BRI. Based on the panel data of 130 participating countries and 46 other countries from 2006 to 2019, the difference-in-difference (DID) model and multiple robustness tests were used for empirical evaluation. We found a positive correlation between BRI and the economic growth of BRI-cooperating countries. The heterogeneity test results show that BRI has a more prominent role in promoting the economic growth of upper-middle-income and high-income countries with relatively good industrial foundations. The impact of improved infrastructure development through BRI accounted for 88.42% of the total mediating effect, which is much more significant than promoting industrial upgrading and enhancing innovation capacity. These results support the view that BRI should continue to advance infrastructure development to boost the economic growth of developing countries.

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“一带一路”基础设施建设对伙伴国经济增长的影响

截至2022年7月，中国已与149个国家和32个国际组织签署了200多项“一带一路”合作协议。本研究旨在探讨“一带一路”倡议的基础设施发展对参与国经济增长的影响。基于2006 - 2019年130个参与国和46个其他国家的面板数据，采用差分差分(DID)模型和多重稳健性检验进行实证评价。我们发现，“一带一路”倡议与合作国家经济增长呈正相关。异质性检验结果显示，在工业基础相对较好的中高收入和高收入国家，“一带一路”对经济增长的促进作用更为突出。“一带一路”促进基础设施建设的中介效应占总中介效应的88.42%，远高于促进产业升级和提升创新能力。这些结果支持了“一带一路”应继续推进基础设施建设，促进发展中国家经济增长的观点。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.