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Zero Growth and Long-Run Inequality 零增长和长期不平等
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-09-03 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201511
Daniel R. Carroll, Eric R. Young
{"title":"Zero Growth and Long-Run Inequality","authors":"Daniel R. Carroll, Eric R. Young","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201511","url":null,"abstract":"Using a basic model to study both wealth and income inequality and their relations to long-run economic growth may lead to questionable conclusions. We consider a more complex model that includes realistic variation in the levels of income and wealth across households in addition to a new ingredient, luck in each household’s labor productivity. Using this model,we determine that existing estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor are generally far away from the region where inequality would explode if long-run growth were zero.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116936455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule 预测者是否同意泰勒规则
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-09-02 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201510
Charles T. Carlstrom, M. Jacobson
{"title":"Do Forecasters Agree on a Taylor Rule","authors":"Charles T. Carlstrom, M. Jacobson","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201510","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasters’ projections of interest rates vary a great deal. We use a Taylor rule to investigate two possible reasons why. Namely, do differences arise because forecasters have different projections for output growth or inflation, or do they arise because forecasters follow different guidelines to predict what the Federal Reserve will do with the federal funds rate? We find evidence for both explanations. Forecasters appear to use very different projections for inflation and output growth, but they also seem to use dramatically different Taylor rule coefficients.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123921992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Why Has Consumption Been So Volatile in the New Millennium 为什么新千年的消费如此不稳定
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-07-09 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201509
Yuliya Demyanyk, Dmytro Hryshko, Daniel Kolliner, Bent E. Sørensen
{"title":"Why Has Consumption Been So Volatile in the New Millennium","authors":"Yuliya Demyanyk, Dmytro Hryshko, Daniel Kolliner, Bent E. Sørensen","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201509","url":null,"abstract":"U.S. consumption has gone through steep ups and downs since the turn of the millennium, but the causes of these fluctuations are still imperfectly identified. We describe research that quantifies the relative impact of nine significant determinants of consumption growth. The explanatory power of these factors varies by period, implying that successful modelling of this decade poses many challenges","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121336361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Income Growth and the Impact of Relative Price Changes on Age-based Consumption Patterns 收入增长和相对价格变化对年龄消费模式的影响
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-07-09 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201508
L. Henry
{"title":"Income Growth and the Impact of Relative Price Changes on Age-based Consumption Patterns","authors":"L. Henry","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201508","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis shows that age-based consumption profiles have been affected by differences in the growth rates of real income and prices since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. In particular, it shows that the recession caused changes in both the absolute level of households’ consumption as well as the relative shares of income going to purchase necessities and luxuries, and that these changes differed by age group. It also shows that this shift occurred in spite of higher rates of price inflation for necessity goods relative to luxury items.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116358412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures and Inflation Expectations 非常规货币政策措施与通胀预期
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-05-27 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201507
Mehmet Pasaogullari
{"title":"Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures and Inflation Expectations","authors":"Mehmet Pasaogullari","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201507","url":null,"abstract":"After its conventional monetary policy tool, the federal funds rate, hit the zero lower bound, the Federal Reserve implemented a number of new tools, including large-scale asset purchases, to provide stimulus to the economy in the Great Recession and the subsequent slow recovery. Such measures caused an unprecedented increase in the Fed’s balance sheet and led some to fear that high inflation would soon follow. In this Economic Commentary, we argue that historical data for various measures of expected inflation did not provide any support for those fears. In addition, a look at the past six years shows that these fears have not materialized.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123074120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Paper Money and Inflation in Colonial America 美国殖民地时期的纸币与通货膨胀
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-05-13 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201506
Owen F. Humpage
{"title":"Paper Money and Inflation in Colonial America","authors":"Owen F. Humpage","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201506","url":null,"abstract":"Inflation is often thought to be the result of excessive money creation—too many dollars chasing too few goods. While in principle this is true, in practice there can be a lot of leeway, so long as trust in the monetary authority’s ability to keep things under control remains high. The American colonists’ experience with paper money illustrates how and why this is so and offers lessons for the modern day.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127686218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Interest Rate Forecasts in Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Periods 传统与非常规货币政策时期的利率预测
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-05-07 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201505
N. Oliver, Mehmet Pasaogullari
{"title":"Interest Rate Forecasts in Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Periods","authors":"N. Oliver, Mehmet Pasaogullari","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201505","url":null,"abstract":"Monetary policy has been conducted with a different set of tools since the fi nancial crisis, and we investigate whether the change has affected the accuracy of professionals’ interest-rate forecasts. We analyze the accuracy of federal funds rate and nominal Treasury yield forecasts in the periods before and after the introduction of new policy tools and find that,in general, forecast accuracy improved in the latter policy period.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114035835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Neighborhood Poverty and Quality in the Moving to Opportunity Experiment 向机会转移实验中的社区贫困与质量
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-04-16 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201504
Dionissi Aliprantis, Daniel Kolliner
{"title":"Neighborhood Poverty and Quality in the Moving to Opportunity Experiment","authors":"Dionissi Aliprantis, Daniel Kolliner","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201504","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers suspect that some of the disparities that exist in such outcomes as health, employment, and education might be attributable to inequality of opportunity as determined by neighborhood environments. We study census data to identify neighborhood characteristics in addition to poverty that might help to explain these disparities. We focus on the Moving to Opportunity housing-relocation experiment and show that because program participants typically moved from one predominately black neighborhood to another, their new low-poverty neighborhoods may have provided little to no change in neighborhood quality. These circumstances are helpful in understanding how results from the Moving to Opportunity program should inform views of neighborhood effects.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116941035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty 衡量通胀预测的不确定性
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-03-20 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201503
Todd E. Clark, Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty","authors":"Todd E. Clark, Edward S. Knotek, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201503","url":null,"abstract":"Looking across a range of statistical models, we consider the likely path of future inflation and the uncertainty surrounding the models' predictions. The models suggest that inflation is on a rising path, and while inflation forecast uncertainty is somewhat elevated relative to the norms of the last 20 years, core inflation uncertainty is relatively low. For both inflation rates, forecast uncertainty is much lower as of the first quarter of 2015 than it was around the Great Recession.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116192100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Excess Reserves: Oceans of Cash 超额储备:现金的海洋
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2015-02-12 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201502
Ben R. Craig, M. Koepke
{"title":"Excess Reserves: Oceans of Cash","authors":"Ben R. Craig, M. Koepke","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201502","url":null,"abstract":"Excess reserves—cash funds held by banks over and above the Federal Reserve's requirements—have grown dramatically since the financial crisis. Holding excess reserves is now much more attractive to banks because the cost of doing so is lower now that the Federal Reserve pays interest on those reserves. The fact that banks are holding excess reserves in response to the risks and interest rates that they face suggests that the reserves are not likely to cause large, unexpected increases in bank loan portfolios. However, it is not clear what banks are likely to do in the future when the perceived conditions change.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116722689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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