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Monetary Policy and Inequality 货币政策与不平等
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2017-01-10 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201701
Pedro S. Amaral
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Inequality","authors":"Pedro S. Amaral","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201701","url":null,"abstract":"This Commentary examines the link between monetary policy and income and wealth inequality by reviewing the theoretical channels that have been proposed and examining the empirical evidence on their importance. The analysis suggests that the magnitude of any redistributive consequences of conventional monetary policy seems to be small. Evidence that unconventional monetary policies have led to increases in inequality is still inconclusive.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125527833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity 新常态还是实时噪音?重新审视最近的劳动生产率数据
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-12-21 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201616
Mark Bognanni, John Zito
{"title":"New Normal or Real-Time Noise? Revisiting the Recent Data on Labor Productivity","authors":"Mark Bognanni, John Zito","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201616","url":null,"abstract":"Some economic observers have argued that the weakness of recent productivity data indicates we have entered a new era of low economic growth. To investigate that claim, we study labor productivity between 1968 and 2016 and compare recent productivity growth to its past behavior. We find that though recent productivity data are unambiguously weak, they are not greatly out of line with the variation of productivity over the historical record. We find that when labor productivity has been weak in the past, it did not persist at those levels. In addition, we find a systematic tendency to understate growth in real time, suggesting that the average rate of the past six years will likely be revised up in future.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123862386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years 未来三年2%通货膨胀的可能性
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-11-29 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201614
E. Tallman, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years","authors":"E. Tallman, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201614","url":null,"abstract":"This Commentary examines inflation forecasts generated from a range of statistical models that historically have performed well at forecasting inflation. For each model, we look at the most likely future forecast path and the distribution of forecasts around that path. We show that the models project generally rising inflation, but, in contrast to other forecasts, five out of six models assign a less than 50 percent probability to inflation’s being 2 percent or higher over the next three years.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126084816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Fed’s Yield-Curve-Control Policy 美联储的收益率曲线控制政策
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-11-29 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201615
Owen F. Humpage
{"title":"The Fed’s Yield-Curve-Control Policy","authors":"Owen F. Humpage","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201615","url":null,"abstract":"The recent global financial crisis left governments in many advanced countries with very heavy debt burdens and their central banks with huge portfolios of government bonds. With many central banks today still facing policy rates that are uncomfortably close to zero, some may follow the example of Japan, which recently added a new long-term interest-rate target to its short-term target to give itself \"yield-curve control.\" The Federal Reserve's foray into similar territory around the Second World War suggests that combining yield-curve control with quantitative easing when government borrowing needs are substantial can create constraints on monetary policy that are not easily removed.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125571612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Geographic Mobility and Consumer Financial Health: Evidence from Oil Production Boom Towns 地理流动性和消费者金融健康:来自石油生产繁荣城镇的证据
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-11-16 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201613
Rawley Z. Heimer, Timothy Stehulak, Caitlin Treanor
{"title":"Geographic Mobility and Consumer Financial Health: Evidence from Oil Production Boom Towns","authors":"Rawley Z. Heimer, Timothy Stehulak, Caitlin Treanor","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201613","url":null,"abstract":"One way a household might handle financial distress is to relocate to another area that offers greater income opportunities. This article examines the impact of geographic mobility on consumer finances by focusing on the residents of “boom towns”—areas that saw a surge of growth in oil-drilling activity around 2010 and a bust thereafter. We find that residents who move after the bust experience stronger consumer financial health than residents who stay put.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130984986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees? 制造业或学位密集型劳动力市场:非大学毕业生的子女在哪里获得更多学位?
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-10-06 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201612
S. Whitaker
{"title":"Manufacturing or Degree-Intensive Labor Markets: Where Do the Children of Non-College Graduates Earn More Degrees?","authors":"S. Whitaker","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201612","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201612","url":null,"abstract":"Manufacturing employment has declined since the 1970s, while the number of jobs requiring a college degree has risen. The shift has reshaped the environment in which many young people grow up and pursue their educations, potentially affecting the level of education they attain. This analysis uses the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth to investigate the relationship between industrial composition and the educational attainment of children whose parents have only a high school education or less. The results show that the educational attainment of these youths is correlated with their region’s industrial mix, though in ways that may seem somewhat surprising.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125973908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations 深入研究消费者通胀预期的下行趋势
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-09-27 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201611
Randal J. Verbrugge, C. Binder
{"title":"Digging into the Downward Trend in Consumer Inflation Expectations","authors":"Randal J. Verbrugge, C. Binder","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201611","url":null,"abstract":"Since mid-2014, the long-run inflation expectations of consumers have been declining. Many commentators blame the decline on gasoline prices, which have also been falling since that time, but we argue that this explanation is incomplete. We analyze University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers microdata and find that a decline in uncertainty about future inflation is a modest part of the story over this period—but it represents the entire story when considering changes in expectations since 2012.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"322 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122865491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Trends in Expenditures by US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013 美国高校支出趋势，1987-2013
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-09-14 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201610
Peter L. Hinrichs
{"title":"Trends in Expenditures by US Colleges and Universities, 1987-2013","authors":"Peter L. Hinrichs","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201610","url":null,"abstract":"This Economic Commentary studies trends in spending by US colleges and universities in broad expenditure categories between 1987 and 2013. The results reveal that spending per student has risen in most major spending categories. This is true for both public institutions and private institutions. However, spending has risen more dramatically in some categories than others. For example, research is one category that has witnessed among the highest spending growth, and in percentage terms, there has also been a large increase in student services spending.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122653572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Does Fiscal Stimulus Work When Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt 当经济衰退由过多的私人债务引起时，财政刺激是否有效
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-08-10 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201608
Yuliya Demyanyk, Elena Loutskina, Daniel Murphy
{"title":"Does Fiscal Stimulus Work When Recessions Are Caused by Too Much Private Debt","authors":"Yuliya Demyanyk, Elena Loutskina, Daniel Murphy","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201608","url":null,"abstract":"We argue that fiscal stimulus funded by public debt is effective for increasing economic activity and employment even in recessions that are caused by overborrowing in the private sector. We analyze the impact of government spending on local economies between 2007 and 2009 and find evidence that the fiscal multiplier is higher in geographical areas characterized by higher individual household debt. The higher multiplier in those areas might be attributed to a direct increase in both household consumption and local economic slack.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133193291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules 基于七项简单货币政策规则的联邦基金利率
Economic commentary Pub Date : 2016-07-11 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-201607
Edward S. Knotek, Randal J. Verbrugge, Christian L. Garciga, Caitlin Treanor, Saeed Zaman
{"title":"Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Randal J. Verbrugge, Christian L. Garciga, Caitlin Treanor, Saeed Zaman","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-201607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-201607","url":null,"abstract":"Monetary policymakers often use simple monetary policy rules, like the Taylor rule, as an input into their decision-making. However, there are many different simple rules, and there is no agreement on a single \"best\" rule. We look at the federal funds rates coming from seven simple rules and three economic forecasts to investigate the range of results that can be produced. While there are some commonalities, we document that the differences in the federal funds rates suggested by the rules can be quite pronounced.","PeriodicalId":368681,"journal":{"name":"Economic commentary","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115819148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
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