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Clarifying causality and information flows between time series: Particulate air pollution, temperature, and elderly mortality. 澄清时间序列之间的因果关系和信息流:空气颗粒污染、气温和老年人死亡率。
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-11-22 eCollection Date: 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100176
Louis Anthony Cox
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引用次数: 0
Academic performance and associated factors among female university students 女大学生的学习成绩及相关因素
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100175
Tsiyon Birhanu Wube , Solomon Gebremichael Asgedom , Zelalem Mohammed Jemal , Lielt Gebreselassie Gebrekirstos
{"title":"Academic performance and associated factors among female university students","authors":"Tsiyon Birhanu Wube ,&nbsp;Solomon Gebremichael Asgedom ,&nbsp;Zelalem Mohammed Jemal ,&nbsp;Lielt Gebreselassie Gebrekirstos","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100175","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100175","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Education serves as a vital instrument for empowering citizens to engage fully in the development process. However, various factors can impact the quality and competency of female students in higher education. In Ethiopian institutions, the proportion of female students is significantly lower than that of their male counterparts, highlighting the unique challenges faced by females that can hinder their academic success. Understanding these challenges and the factors influencing female academic performance is essential for enhancing educational outcomes and promoting greater equity in higher education.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>An institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted involving 633 female university students, supplemented by a qualitative approach. Participants were selected using a multistage sampling technique. Data were collected via a self-administered questionnaire, while qualitative data were gathered through key informant and in-depth interviews. Qualitative data were transcribed, labeled, and analyzed narratively through content analysis. Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with academic performance.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The study revealed that 11.85 % of female students (95 % CI: 9.43–14.62) experienced poor academic performance. Key factors influencing academic performance included alcohol consumption (AOR = 2.3, 95 % CI: 1.8–4.0), smoking (AOR = 2.9, 95 % CI: 1.1–7.4), working after school (AOR = 1.6, 95 % CI: 1.1–2.8), choice in preferred departments (AOR = 0.6, 95 % CI: 0.3–0.8), poor prior knowledge in English and basic science (AOR = 2.1, 95 % CI: 1.4–4.1), and insufficient parental support (AOR = 2.1, 95 % CI: 1.3–3.7).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The abstract effectively summarizes the key findings and offers relevant insights into the academic challenges faced by female students. More than one in ten female students encounters significant academic obstacles influenced by factors such as substance use, after-school employment, limited department choice, and inadequate foundational knowledge. Addressing these issues is crucial for improving academic performance and reinforcing support systems for female students, thereby providing a solid foundation for future studies in this area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100175"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142654778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring diseases burden in HIV population: Results from the CHAO (Comorbidities in HIV/AIDS outpatients) cross-sectional study in Kenya 探索艾滋病人群的疾病负担:肯尼亚 CHAO(艾滋病毒/艾滋病门诊患者合并症)横断面研究的结果
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100174
Fausto Ciccacci , Benjamin Welu , Harrison Ndoi , Claudia Mosconi , Carolina De Santo , Mariachiara Carestia , Anna Maria Doro Altan , Joseph Murungi , Koome Muthuri , Mariagrazia Cicala , Giovanni Guidotti , Stefano Orlando
{"title":"Exploring diseases burden in HIV population: Results from the CHAO (Comorbidities in HIV/AIDS outpatients) cross-sectional study in Kenya","authors":"Fausto Ciccacci ,&nbsp;Benjamin Welu ,&nbsp;Harrison Ndoi ,&nbsp;Claudia Mosconi ,&nbsp;Carolina De Santo ,&nbsp;Mariachiara Carestia ,&nbsp;Anna Maria Doro Altan ,&nbsp;Joseph Murungi ,&nbsp;Koome Muthuri ,&nbsp;Mariagrazia Cicala ,&nbsp;Giovanni Guidotti ,&nbsp;Stefano Orlando","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100174","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100174","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Africa is the epicenter of the HIV epidemic, with over two-thirds of the global population living with HIV. It is also facing a dramatic increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) amidst its aging population. This necessitates a healthcare approach that addresses both infectious diseases and NCDs in HIV-positive individuals. In Kenya, with 1.4 million HIV-positive people, efforts include widespread ART access and integrating HIV services into the health system. Challenges remain in healthcare infrastructure, particularly in rural areas. The Comorbidities in HIV/AIDS Outpatients (CHAO) Project, funded by the Italian Cooperation Agency, aims to improve understanding and management of comorbidities in HIV patients, highlighting the need for cost-effective healthcare strategies to address this dual burden.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The CHAO (Comorbidities in HIV/AIDS Outpatients) project conducted a cross-sectional epidemiological study across 25 clinics in Meru County, Kenya. The study included comprehensive surveys and screenings for various comorbidities among HIV-positive patients receiving treatment, utilizing both clinical evaluations and laboratory tests to assess the prevalence of infectious diseases and NCDs.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>A total of 1051 HIV-positive individuals were included in the study: 75 % females, 25 % males, median age 47 years, the majority (96 %) on long-term ART, mostly Dolutegravir-based (95 %). 55.4 % had at least one comorbidity, with NCDs such as dyslipidemia (21.22 %) and hypertension (20.17 %) being the most prevalent. The study also noted significant occurrences of communicable diseases, including syphilis (5.23 %), hepatitis B (2.19 %), and hepatitis C (0.29 %). The prevalence of comorbidities varied with age, highlighting the impact of aging on disease burden.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>The high prevalence of comorbidities among HIV-positive patients in Meru County underscores the need for integrated healthcare strategies that address both infectious diseases and NCDs. The findings advocate for systematic screening and management of comorbidities within HIV care programs, emphasizing the need for holistic health approaches to improve outcomes for this population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100174"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What constitutes valid evidence of causation? Gas stoves and childhood asthma revisited 什么是因果关系的有效证据?煤气灶与儿童哮喘再探讨
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100173
Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
{"title":"What constitutes valid evidence of causation? Gas stoves and childhood asthma revisited","authors":"Louis Anthony Cox Jr.","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100173","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100173"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Letter to the editor regarding: “Challenging unverified assumptions in causal claims: Do gas stoves increase risk of pediatric asthma?” 致编辑的信,内容涉及"质疑因果关系声明中未经核实的假设:燃气灶会增加小儿哮喘的风险吗?
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100172
Kari C. Nadeau , Yannai Kashtan , Metta Nicholson , Colin J. Finnegan , Zutao Ouyang , Anchal Garg , Eric D. Lebel , Sebastian T. Rowland , Drew R. Michanowicz , Robert B. Jackson
{"title":"Letter to the editor regarding: “Challenging unverified assumptions in causal claims: Do gas stoves increase risk of pediatric asthma?”","authors":"Kari C. Nadeau ,&nbsp;Yannai Kashtan ,&nbsp;Metta Nicholson ,&nbsp;Colin J. Finnegan ,&nbsp;Zutao Ouyang ,&nbsp;Anchal Garg ,&nbsp;Eric D. Lebel ,&nbsp;Sebastian T. Rowland ,&nbsp;Drew R. Michanowicz ,&nbsp;Robert B. Jackson","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100172","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100172"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identification of population multimorbidity patterns in 3.9 million patients from Bogota in 2018 2018年波哥大390万患者的人群多病模式识别
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100171
Carolina Saavedra-Moreno , Rafael Hurtado , Nubia Velasco , Andrea Ramírez
{"title":"Identification of population multimorbidity patterns in 3.9 million patients from Bogota in 2018","authors":"Carolina Saavedra-Moreno ,&nbsp;Rafael Hurtado ,&nbsp;Nubia Velasco ,&nbsp;Andrea Ramírez","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100171","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Multimorbidity has emerged as a challenge for health systems due to its association with adverse clinical outcomes. Given the limited information available on multimorbidity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, this study characterizes multimorbidity patterns in the population of Bogotá, Colombia in 2018.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In a cross-sectional study, we analyzed 16 million medical consultation records from Bogotá reported in the National Service Delivery Records in 2018. Using network analysis, we quantified the prevalence of multimorbidity in the population and identified the most common associations between diagnoses, with data stratified by age, sex, and socioeconomic status.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The study found that the prevalence of multimorbidity in the population was 44.2 %, increased with age, and was higher in women and in people affiliated to the contributory health scheme. Allergies and vasomotor rhinitis with asthma were common in young people. In women aged 19–39 years, obesity with hypothyroidism was common, while men in the same age group had obesity with dyslipidemia. In people aged 60 years and older, essential hypertension with dyslipidemia was the most common. In addition, some associations between diagnoses showed a higher association in people affiliated to the subsidized health scheme, with notable associations with trauma, especially in men.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Overall, the results provide valuable insights into multimorbidity in the population and highlight inequalities based on sociodemographic factors. Future research should investigate whether the lower prevalence of multimorbidity in vulnerable groups is related to biases in data collection or to underlying inequalities in healthcare access.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100171"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vitamin D deficiency in Ukraine: A multicentre cross-sectional study 乌克兰的维生素 D 缺乏症:多中心横断面研究
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100170
Sofiia Shatylo , Volodymyr Bogomaz , Oleksii Babych
{"title":"Vitamin D deficiency in Ukraine: A multicentre cross-sectional study","authors":"Sofiia Shatylo ,&nbsp;Volodymyr Bogomaz ,&nbsp;Oleksii Babych","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100170","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100170","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Available epidemiological data on vitamin D status in the Ukrainian population are limited.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in Ukraine.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This multicentre cross-sectional study included a total of 11,462 participants: 1530 children with a median age 10 years, (IQR 6–14) and 56.21 % of them were female; 9932 adults with a median age of 36 years (IQR 26–48) and 78.72 % of them were female. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels were measured once by chemiluminescent immunoassay (UniCel DxI 800 Access Immunoassay System, Beckman Coulter Inc., USA) in the period of January–December 2021 in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. The cut-offs were: vitamin D deficiency, &lt;50 nmol/L; moderate deficiency, 25–&lt;50 nmol/L; severe deficiency, &lt;25 nmol/L; vitamin D insufficiency, 50–&lt;75 nmol/L; vitamin D sufficiency, 75–&lt;250 nmol/L; optimal concentration, 75–&lt;125 nmol/L; increased levels, 125–&lt;250 nmol/L; and toxicity, ≥250 nmol/L.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The median 25(OH)D level was 65.4 nmol/L (IQR 49.5–85.6) among all participants, severe vitamin D deficiency was recorded in 2.9 % of participants (95 % CI: 2.6–3.2), moderate deficiency in 23 % (95 % CI: 22–24), and vitamin D insufficiency in 37 % (95 % CI: 36–38).</div><div>Prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in group 1–17 years was 23.5 % (95 % CI: 21–26). We did not find vitamin D deficiency in children aged 1–2 years; however toxic levels were recorded in 4.2 % of the children in this age group (95 % CI: 1.4–9.6). Among the adults (≥18 years old), prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was 26 % (95 % CI: 25–27).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency are common in Ukraine.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100170"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142434056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling the factors associated with quality of life in women with osteoporosis: A cross-sectional study 骨质疏松症女性生活质量相关因素建模:横断面研究
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100169
Rahmatollah Moradzadeh , Maryam Zamanian , Maliheh Taheri
{"title":"Modelling the factors associated with quality of life in women with osteoporosis: A cross-sectional study","authors":"Rahmatollah Moradzadeh ,&nbsp;Maryam Zamanian ,&nbsp;Maliheh Taheri","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Considering the important factors contributing to different health-related quality of life (HRQoL) subscales is essential for implementing preventive measures to increase the HRQoL among women with osteoporosis. We here evaluated the variables related to the mental and physical HRQoL in a sample of Iranian osteoporotic women.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this cross-sectional study, the participants included 111 women with osteoporosis in 2013. Physical and mental of HRQoL were measured by the ECOS-16 questionnaire. Other variables included BMD t-score (Osteoporosis was diagnosed based on bone mineral density (BMD) with BMD t-score &lt; −2.5), age, body mass index, educational level, marital status, duration of the disease, history of bone fracture in the past year, the number of pregnancies, and weekly walking hours. Final regression coefficients were obtained based on the total effects of estimations (decompositions of effects into direct, indirect and total effects) by structural equation model (SEM) analysis.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The mean scores of physical and mental domains of HRQoL were 54(21) and 54(25), respectively. The mean of BMD t-score was −3.2 (0.9). Based on the regression coefficients obtained in the SEM model, weekly walking hours(2.2), number of pregnancies (−1.2), and history of bone fracture in past year(−2.9) were the more important determinants of physical aspect of HRQoL than other included variables of this study. Furthermore, age over than 60 (−9.1), history of bone fracture in past year(−4.8), weekly walking hours(2.3), marital status(−5), and education level (3.9)influenced the mental aspect of HRQoL.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Social and life style factors tend to impact on physical and mental domains of HRQoL, a measure that is influenced by multiple factors among postmenopausal women. In this respect, these obtained factors should be considered for health planning to improve the physical and mental domains of HRQoL among postmenopausal women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100169"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing AI/ML approaches and classical regression for predictive modeling using large population health databases: Applications to COVID-19 case prediction 比较使用大型人口健康数据库进行预测建模的人工智能/ML 方法和经典回归方法:应用于 COVID-19 病例预测
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100168
Lise M. Bjerre , Cayden Peixoto , Rawan Alkurd , Robert Talarico , Rami Abielmona
{"title":"Comparing AI/ML approaches and classical regression for predictive modeling using large population health databases: Applications to COVID-19 case prediction","authors":"Lise M. Bjerre ,&nbsp;Cayden Peixoto ,&nbsp;Rawan Alkurd ,&nbsp;Robert Talarico ,&nbsp;Rami Abielmona","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Research comparing artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods with classical statistical methods applied to large population health databases is limited.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This retrospective cohort study aimed to compare the predictive performance of AI/ML algorithms against conventional multivariate logistic regression models using linked health administrative data.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Using Ontario's population health databases, we created a cohort of residents of the city of Ottawa, Ontario, who underwent a PCR test for COVID-19 between March 10, 2020, and May 13, 2021. Using demographic, socio-economic and health data (including COVID-19 PCR test results and available, symptom data), we developed predictive models for the purpose of COVID-19 case identification using the following approaches: classical multivariate logistic regression (LR); deep neural network (DNN); random forest (RF); and gradient boosting trees (GBT). Model performance comparisons were made using the area under the curve (AUC) swarm plot for 10-fold cross-validation.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The cohort consisted of <em>n</em> = 351,248 Ottawa residents tested for COVID-19 during the study period. Among whom, a total of <em>n</em> = 883,879 unique COVID-19 tests were performed (2.6 % positive test results). Inclusion of COVID-19 symptoms data in the analysis improved model performance and variable predictive value across all tested models (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.0001), with the 10-fold cross-validation AUC increasing to near or over 0.7 in all models when symptoms data were included. In various pairwise comparisons, the GBT method had the highest predictive ability (AUC = 0.796 ± 0.017), significantly outperforming multivariate logistic regression and the other AI/ML approaches.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Conventional multivariate regression-based models are better than some and worse than other machine learning algorithms to provide good predictive accuracy in a moderate dataset with a reasonable number of features. However, whenever possible, the AI/ML GBT approach should be considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100168"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating effects of aging and disease progression in current and former smokers using longitudinal models 利用纵向模型估算当前吸烟者和曾经吸烟者衰老和疾病进展的影响
Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100165
Matthew Strand , Surya Bhatt , Matthew Moll , David Baraghoshi
{"title":"Estimating effects of aging and disease progression in current and former smokers using longitudinal models","authors":"Matthew Strand ,&nbsp;Surya Bhatt ,&nbsp;Matthew Moll ,&nbsp;David Baraghoshi","doi":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100165","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloepi.2024.100165","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>To separate estimates of mean change in a health outcome into components of aging and disease progression for different severity groups of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).</div></div><div><h3>Study design and methods</h3><div>A longitudinal model can be used to estimate mean change in a health outcome over time. Methods to separate this change into portions due to aging and disease progression are discussed, including conditions that allow for accurate estimation. Linear mixed models were used to estimate these changes for <em>forced expiratory volume in 1</em> <em>s</em> (FEV<sub>1</sub>) for various COPD severity and smoking groups using a large cohort (COPDGene) followed for over 10 years.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Based on an analysis of 4967 subjects, age-related loss in FEV<sub>1</sub> was found to be about 1 % per year, consistent with published work. Excess average losses (those beyond natural aging) were significant for all severity groups (except nonsmokers), including those with smoking history but normal lung function. Subjects in higher severity groups tended to have less loss in FEV<sub>1</sub>, but more relative loss, compared to baseline averages. Losses in FEV<sub>1</sub> that included both aging and disease progression ranged from 1 to 3 % over severity groups, with current smokers generally exhibiting greater mean losses in FEV<sub>1</sub> than former smokers.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>Effects of disease progression separate from aging can be estimated in observational studies, although care should be taken in order to make sure assumptions involving this separation are reasonable for a given study. This article demonstrates methods to estimate such effects using temporal changes in lung function for subjects in the COPDGene study.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36311,"journal":{"name":"Global Epidemiology","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100165"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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