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Predicting Disaggregated Tourist Arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA Model 利用ARIMA模型预测塞拉利昂分类游客入境人数
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-09-09 DOI: 10.20944/preprints201909.0102.v1
Emerson Abraham Jackson, Edmund Tamuke
{"title":"Predicting Disaggregated Tourist Arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA Model","authors":"Emerson Abraham Jackson, Edmund Tamuke","doi":"10.20944/preprints201909.0102.v1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints201909.0102.v1","url":null,"abstract":"This study have uniquely mad use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the threes objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research have testify the achievements of this through successful nine months out-of-sample forecasts produced from the program codes, with indicating best model choices from the empirical estimation. In addition, the results also provide description of risks produced from the uncertainty Fan Chart, which clearly outlined possible downside and upside risks to tourist visitations in the country. In the conclusion, it was suggested that downside risks to the low level tourist arrival can be managed through collaboration between authorities concerned with the management of tourist arrivals in the country.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117028619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
THE CLASSICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: CRITICISM AND CONTROVERSY AROUND THE MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY 古典政治经济学:十九世纪中期前后的批评与争议
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).01
A. Morselli
{"title":"THE CLASSICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: CRITICISM AND CONTROVERSY AROUND THE MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY","authors":"A. Morselli","doi":"10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).01","url":null,"abstract":"The present work highlights the insufficiency of classical methodology to explain economic phenomena. The classical formulation left the notion of value unspecified, so there is room for the marginalist current, which abandons the classic value-work theory of the and replaces it with a theory of value based on marginal utility. The scenario changes and the attention is no longer paid to the classical social aggregates, but to individuals and economic subjects, passing from objectivity to the subjectivity of individual choices. From the marginalist principles, which still have an important influence today, the neoclassical school is constituted, which sets itself the objective of highlighting the advantages of economic liberalism, already highlighted by classical authors, but through different instruments compared to those used in the past. In this way we will have the opportunity to observe how the study of economics becomes more scientific, general and universal.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114752213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
THE IMPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND ECONOMIC COHESION 区域竞争力对区域发展政策和经济凝聚力的影响
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).04
R. Pîrvu, Ionuţ Rădoi
{"title":"THE IMPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND ECONOMIC COHESION","authors":"R. Pîrvu, Ionuţ Rădoi","doi":"10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).04","url":null,"abstract":"Starting from the calculation pattern of the regional competitiveness in Romania, proposed by GEA in 2007, we proposed to draft a hard matrix where we could draft a comparative analysis of the evolution of the competitiveness of the regions in Romania regarding the values registers in 2017 as opposed to 2007. The research presented takes into consideration the available regional indicators on the level of Romania as well as: the GDP per capita, the growth rate of the gross added value, the share of the gross GDP, the employment rate, the index of the life expectancy, the population with the risk of poverty or social exclusion, research-development expenses in GSP, employees in research-development from the total employed population, tertiary education in research-development, innovative enterprises in total enterprises and so on. We also selected a linear pattern based on 3 factors according to which the regional competitiveness will be analysed that is the economic factors, the social factor and the technologic factor. The data used were collected from the existing database on the level of the national Statistics Institute and on the international Eurostat level.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116882972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREATIVITY, BUSINESS NETWORK AND INDEPENDENCE IN ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF ACEH YOUTH 亚齐青年创业中创造力、商业网络与独立性的关系
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).08
Badaruddin Badaruddin, N. Azis, H. Sofyan, H. Basri
{"title":"RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREATIVITY, BUSINESS NETWORK AND INDEPENDENCE IN ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF ACEH YOUTH","authors":"Badaruddin Badaruddin, N. Azis, H. Sofyan, H. Basri","doi":"10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).08","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of creativity, business Networks and entrepreneurial independence among young people in Aceh. The location of this study was conducted on young and medium-sized business actors in Aceh, the sampling method used non-probability sampling method with purposive sampling technique so that the number of respondents obtained were 170 young entrepreneurs in Aceh. The analytical tool used is Structural Equation Modeling in the model and testing hypotheses and testing a series of relatively complex relationships simultaneously. The results showed that creativity support, business network support, and independence support had a significant influence on entrepreneurship among young people in Aceh. From the results of this study it can be seen that each indicator that forms a latent variable shows the results that meet the criteria, namely the CR value above 1.96 with P-value  that is smaller than 0.05.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"183 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114836684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
INSURANCE-MARKETS EQUILIBRIUM WITH A NON-CONVEX LABOR SUPPLY DECISION, UNOBSERVABLE EFFORT, AND EFFICIENCY WAGES OF THE “NO-SHIRKING” TYPE 具有非凸劳动力供给决策、不可观察努力和“无逃避”型效率工资的保险市场均衡
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).03
Aleksandar Vasilev
{"title":"INSURANCE-MARKETS EQUILIBRIUM WITH A NON-CONVEX LABOR SUPPLY DECISION, UNOBSERVABLE EFFORT, AND EFFICIENCY WAGES OF THE “NO-SHIRKING” TYPE","authors":"Aleksandar Vasilev","doi":"10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).03","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to describe the lottery and insurance-market equilibrium in an economy with non-convex labor supply decision, unobservable effort, and efficiency wages of the no-shirking type a la Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984). The presence of indivisible labor creates a market incompleteness, which requires that an insurance market for (un) employment be put in operation to \"complete\" the market.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114136525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION 尼日利亚人口变化与经济表现:一项实证调查
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).02
A. Orji, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, D. U. Nwanosike, Onyinye I. Anthony‐Orji
{"title":"DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION","authors":"A. Orji, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, D. U. Nwanosike, Onyinye I. Anthony‐Orji","doi":"10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).02","url":null,"abstract":"Demographic changes in Nigeria are associated with divers’ outcomes. This ranges from unemployment with figures ranging from 14 percent per annum for the entire population to 30 percent for the youth, coupled with stagnating economic performance. Ordinarily the growth of population could be to the advantage of a country in terms of the sheer size of its domestic market, better division of labour, and increased productivity through improvement in the ratio of labour force to population etc but the story may not always be the same for every economy. This study therefore investigated the extent to which demographic changes in Nigeria impact on economic performance in the country, as well as the direction of interaction between population changes and economic performance in Nigeria from 1970-2016. To achieve this, the study adopted Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Model (VAR) and found that fertility levels remain moderately high while the death rate drops especially infant mortality, leading to a larger population in Nigeria. Following the research findings, this study recommends that government should enact strict laws prohibiting early sex and marriage among youths. This early engagement on sex and marriage, the paper argued, will increase the mortality rate in Nigeria as a result of sexual infection, unwanted pregnancy as well as reduction in economic performance of the country. Also, serious public enlightenment campaigns should be mounted by government agencies, the mass media, radio, television, chiefs, churches, schools, mosques, home videos, etc. to send across the message that emphasizes the need and importance of family planning, healthy and improved living conditions for the people through population control.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"33 11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133552777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
UNDERSTANDING CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DYNAMICS IN CANADA 了解加拿大消费者价格指数的动态
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI: 10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).06
Thabani Nyoni
{"title":"UNDERSTANDING CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DYNAMICS IN CANADA","authors":"Thabani Nyoni","doi":"10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v10.1(19).06","url":null,"abstract":"This research uses annual time series data on Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the C series is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model for predicting CPI in Canada. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Canada is likely to continue on a sharp upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Canada.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"124 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133615724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
WHERE IS KENYA BEING HEADED TO? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH 肯尼亚将走向何方?来自box-jenkins arima方法的经验证据
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2019-01-08 DOI: 10.14505//TPREF.V10.2(20).01
Thabani Nyoni
{"title":"WHERE IS KENYA BEING HEADED TO? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH","authors":"Thabani Nyoni","doi":"10.14505//TPREF.V10.2(20).01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505//TPREF.V10.2(20).01","url":null,"abstract":"Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in Kenya from 1960 to 2017, the study analyzes GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Kenyan GDP per capita data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable and reliable. The results of the study indicate that living standards in Kenya will improve over the next decade, as long as the prudent macroeconomic management continues in Kenya. Indeed, Kenya’s economy is growing. The study offers 3 policy prescriptions in an effort to help policy makers in Kenya on how to promote and maintain the much-needed growth.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115099353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AGGREGATION WITH A NON-CONVEX LABOR SUPPLY DECISION, UNOBSERVABLE EFFORT, AND INCENTIVE (“FAIR”) WAGES 具有非凸劳动力供给决策、不可观察的努力和激励(“公平”)工资的聚合
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.14505//TPREF.V9.2(18).03
Aleksandar Vasilev
{"title":"AGGREGATION WITH A NON-CONVEX LABOR SUPPLY DECISION, UNOBSERVABLE EFFORT, AND INCENTIVE (“FAIR”) WAGES","authors":"Aleksandar Vasilev","doi":"10.14505//TPREF.V9.2(18).03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505//TPREF.V9.2(18).03","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this note is to explore the problem of a non-convex labor supply decision in an economy with unobservable e_ort and incentive (\"fair\") wages a la Danthine and Kurmann (2004), and explicitly perform the aggregation presented there without a formal proof, and thus provide - starting from micro-foundations - the derivation of the expected utility functions used for the aggregate household. We show how lotteries as in Rogerson (1988) can be used to convexify consumption sets, and aggregate over individual preferences. With a discrete labor supply decisions, the elasticity of aggregate labor supply becomes a function of effort","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122493125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
EXTERNAL DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN GHANA: A CO-INTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS 加纳外债与经济增长:协整与向量误差修正分析
Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields Pub Date : 2018-12-10 DOI: 10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).05
A. Matuka, S. Asafo
{"title":"EXTERNAL DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN GHANA: A CO-INTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS","authors":"A. Matuka, S. Asafo","doi":"10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14505//TPREF.V10.1(19).05","url":null,"abstract":"This paper employed a co-integration analysis and an error correction methodology to examine the impact of external debt on economic growth in Ghana using annual time series for the period 1970-2017. We found that external debt inflows spur growth in Ghana both in the long-run and short-run. Secondly, our study also confirmed the crowding out effect and the non-linear effect of external debt in the long run and short-run. However, Debt overhang was only confirmed in the short-run. \u0000We advocate for a judicious allocation of the debt resources so that the cost of servicing the debt will not outweigh the benefit of the borrowed funds.","PeriodicalId":362173,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134279077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
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