Applied Economic Analysis最新文献

{"title":"An investigation of demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism sector","authors":"K. Bozkurt, H. Tekin, Zeliha Can Ergün","doi":"10.1108/AEA-05-2020-0051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-05-2020-0051","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to measure the relationship between demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism industry.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000A panel data set is constructed covering the period between 1995 and 2017, and the data set includes the top 26 countries that host 10 million tourists and above in the world as of 2017. The standard errors of the series are used as an indicator of shocks. First, the cross-sectional dependency, stationarity and the homogeneity of the series are examined; second, a panel cointegration analysis is implemented; third, long-term panel cointegration coefficients are analyzed with Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) approach; and, finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test is used to detect the causality.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The preliminary analyses show that the variables are cross-sectional dependent and heterogeneous and are stationary in their first difference; hence, the effects of the shocks are temporary. On the other hand, as a result of the panel cointegration analysis, it is found that both series are cointegrated over the long-term. However, the long-term coefficients estimated with the DCCE approach are found not to be statistically significant. Finally, as a result of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test, it is concluded that there is a causality running from exchange rate shocks to demand shocks.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the cointegration between the tourism demand shocks and exchange rates shocks has not been investigated before, and therefore, this study is considered to be a pioneering study that will contribute to the literature.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49415687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does a Clarke-Groves type tax prevent free riding when implementing Eurobonds?","authors":"C. Contreras, Julio Angulo","doi":"10.1108/AEA-03-2020-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-03-2020-0020","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to propose a Clarke-Groves Tax (CGT) type as a remedy to the criticism that the implementation of Eurobonds has raised regarding the risk of undermining fiscal discipline. In this model, a government minimizes its sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio in a given period and decides whether to join a common sovereign debt club. In doing so, it exposes itself to a positive or negative tax burden while benefiting from the liquidity premium involved in creating a secure asset. The authors found that the introduction of this tax may prevent free riding behaviours if Eurobonds were to be implemented. To illustrate this, the authors provide some numerical simulations for the Eurozone.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000In the model presented, a government which optimizes a social utility function decides whether to join the common debt club.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The adoption of the proposed tax could prevent free-riding behaviours and, therefore, encourages participation by those countries with lower debt levels that would have not otherwise taken part in this common debt mechanism. Under certain circumstances, we can expect the utility of all members of this club to improve. The bias in the distribution of gains might be mitigated by regulating the tax rule determining the magnitude of payment/reward. The proportion of the liquidity premium, arising from the implementation of a sovereign safe asset, has a decisive impact on the degree of the governments’ utility enhancement.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The adoption of a CGT would require Eurobonds club members to reach an agreement on “the” theoretical model for determining the sovereign debt yield. One of the limitations of this model is considering the debt-to-GDP ratio as the sole determinant of public debt yields. Moreover, the authors assumed the relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and funding costs to be identical for all countries. Any progress in the implementation of the proposed transfer scheme would require a more realistic and in-depth analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000A new fiscal rule based on compensating countries with lower public debt levels could be a way to mitigate free-riding problems if a Eurobond mechanism is to be established.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This fiscal rule has not been proposed or analysed before in a context such as that considered by this paper.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48389999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial","authors":"M. Camacho, M. Dolores Gadea","doi":"10.1108/aea-04-2021-166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-04-2021-166","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47151027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The economic consequences of Covid in Spain and how to deal with them","authors":"Á. D. L. Fuente, Anna Balletbó, J. L. Bonet, J. E. Boscá, S. Carbó, J. I. Conde-Ruiz, G. D. Rus, Juan del Alcázar, José Ramón Díez, R. Doménech, F. Felgueroso, E. Fernández, María Ascensión Blanco Fernández, J. Ferri, J. I. G. Perez, Marcel Jansen, J. Jimeno, Alejandra Kindelán, Julio López Laborda, José María Marín Vigueras, Clara Eugenia Núñez, Jorge Onrubia, L. Puch, J. Riesgo, Diego Rodríguez, Sofía Rodríguez, J. Santillán, Jorge Sicilia, Eva Valle, Javier Vega de Seoane, X. Vives","doi":"10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0158","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to review the economic impact of Covid in Spain and propose policies to deal with them.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Not relevant.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The pandemic is having a very severe effect, which varies across sectors and regions. Given the severity of the problem, a comprehensive policy strategy is needed. Specific proposals about such a strategy are made, distinguishing between the short and the long run.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000You tell me.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47774499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spanish non-financial corporations and the COVID pandemic: vulnerability, resilience and transformation","authors":"V. Salas-Fumás","doi":"10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0157","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the Spanish non-financial corporations (NFC) to the shock from the COVID pandemic with consolidated income accounts data, and shows comparative labor productivity and endowment of organizational capital of Spanish firms, as indicators of their capabilities at the outset of the new digital transformation wave proposed by the next generation EU program.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The paper first describes the recent evolution (quarterly 2020 data) of the Spanish non-financial corporate sector (gross value added, labor cost, capital formation, profits) in the assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of the sector to the shock of the COVID pandemic. Then second, it estimates a probit model to evaluate the EU country effects in the explanation of the different propensity firms in the European Company Survey database to adopt innovative management and organization practices.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000In the Spring of 2020, the Spanish NFC were still recovering from the great recession (low resilience), and the severe contraction in value-added and profits of the corporate sector in the first three quarters of the year evidences its high vulnerability. The proved complementarity between organizational and information related assets implies that the low endowment of organizational capital of Spanish firms, could be a severe limitation for the advancement toward digitalization.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000The aggregate corporate sector data used in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of Spanish firms does not account for the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic across economic sectors (manufacturing and services, for example) and across firms (large versus small ones).\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The paper complements the country-level analysis of the impact of the COVID pandemic in the Spanish economy with the analysis of the impact of the pandemic in the performance of the corporate sector. It provides one of the first analysis of the current endowment of organization capital of Spanish firms and highlights its relevance for productivity growth.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41642245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The costs of COVID-19 and the cost-effectiveness of testing","authors":"B. López-Valcárcel, L. Vallejo-Torres","doi":"10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0162","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to provide an estimation of the costs of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with a special focus on Spain. Costs include macroeconomic costs of foregone gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to the pandemic and the direct and indirect costs of prevention, treatment and lost productivity. This study also analyzes the cost-effectiveness of the test-tracking-quarantine (TTQ) strategy in Spain.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The macroeconomic costs of foregone GDP attributable to the pandemic are estimated for different countries and areas by comparing the present GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021 with counterfactuals estimated before the COVID-19 crisis aftermath. The total cost of the COVID-19 for Spain in 2020 was obtained using the cost of illness approach with a bottom-up process. A cost-effectiveness analysis of the TTQ strategy in Spain is based on the estimation of the total costs of TTQ and the health gains and avoided health-care costs associated with the TTQ strategy. A sensitivity analysis explores the consequences of uncertainty in key parameters.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The GDP cost of the COVID-19 is by far larger than all the other components of the cost. The global cost of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020–2021 is estimated at 14% of 2019 GDP (around 12,206 mm$). In the specific case of Spain, it amounts to 24% of the 2019 GDP; which is 397.3 m €. Spain is and will be by far the European country most economically affected by the pandemic. In Spain 2020, the GDP cost accounts for 94.7% of the total cost of the COVID-19 and health-care direct costs are only 2.14%. TTQ is a dominant strategy in Spain. For each euro spent on it, 7 euros will be recovered only in terms of saved health-care resources.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Given the large degree of uncertainty and the fast-evolving nature of the epidemic, a number of assumptions are required to arrive at the estimates provided in this study. The results were found to be robust to the assumptions applied.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000TTQ is a key strategy for the contention of the epidemy and it is justified from the economic perspective.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This is the first estimation of the cost of the COVID-19 and the cost-effectiveness of the TTQ strategy for Spain.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43137565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the impacts of global economic policy uncertainty and the long-term bond yields on oil prices","authors":"Oguzhan Ozcelebi","doi":"10.1108/AEA-05-2020-0046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-05-2020-0046","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Might the impact of the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the long-term bond yields on oil prices be asymmetric? This paper aims to consider the effects of the GEPU and the US long-term government bond yields on oil prices using quantile-based analysis and nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) model. The author hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the GEPU and the long-term bond yields of the USA have different effects on oil prices.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To address this question, the author uses quantile cointegration model and the impulse response functions (IRFs) of the censored variable approach of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The quantile cointegration test showed the existence of non-linear cointegration relationship, whereas Granger-causality analysis revealed that positive/negative variations in GEPU will have opposite effects on oil prices. This result was supported by the quantile regression model’s coefficients and nonlinear VAR model’s IRFs; more specifically, it was stressed that increasing/decreasing GEPU will deaccelerate/accelerate global economic activity and thus lead to a fall/rise in oil prices. On the other hand, the empirical models indicated that the impact of US 10-year government bond yields on oil prices is asymmetrical, while it was found that deterioration in the borrowing conditions in the USA may have an impact on oil prices by slowing down the global economic activity.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000As a robustness check of the quantile-based analysis results, the slope-based Mork test is used.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41483825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Past, present and future of the Spanish labour market: when the pandemic meets the megatrends","authors":"J. Dolado, F. Felgueroso, J. Jimeno","doi":"10.1108/aea-11-2020-0154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-11-2020-0154","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to review the experience so far of the Spanish labour market during the Covid-19 crisis in the light of the existing institutions, its performance during past recessions and the policy measures adopted during the pandemic. Emphasis is placed on the role of worldwide trends in labour markets because of automation and artificial intelligence, in shaping a potential recovery of this (hopefully) transitory shock through a big reallocation process of employment and economic activity. It also highlights some innovations to employment and social policies needed to smooth the reallocation process and lessen the rise in inequality associated to technological trends.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Theory and empirics.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The Spanish labour market will subject to a great reallocation shock as a result of Covid-19 and secular technological changes. Reforms need to be undertaken.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000An overview and some new results.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41536039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain","authors":"Asier Minondo","doi":"10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-11-2020-0156","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper uses monthly trade data at the product, region and firm level.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The COVID-19 crisis has led to the sharpest collapse in the Spanish trade of goods and services in recent decades. The containment measures adopted to arrest the spread of the virus have caused an especially intense fall of trade in services. The large share of transport equipment, capital goods, products that are consumed outdoors (i.e., outdoor goods) and tourism in Spanish exports has made the COVID-19 trade crisis more intense in Spain than in the rest of the European Union.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The nature of the collapse suggests that trade in goods can recover swiftly when the health crisis ends. However, COVID-19 may have a long-term negative impact on the trade of services that rely on the movement of people.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000It contributes to understand how COVID-19 has affected the trade in goods and services in Spain.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41677147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of volatility of foreign direct investment inflows on corporate income tax revenue volatility","authors":"S. Gnangnon","doi":"10.1108/aea-04-2020-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/aea-04-2020-0030","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to examine how the volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows affects the volatility of corporate income tax revenue.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study has used an unbalanced panel data set of 129 countries over the period 1981–2016 and the two-step system generalized methods of moment approach to perform the empirical analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The main findings are that FDI volatility enhances the volatility of corporate income tax revenue in less advanced economies, but reduces it in relatively advanced countries. The positive corporate income tax revenue volatility effect of FDI inflows is far higher in non-tax haven countries than in tax haven countries. Additionally, FDI volatility exerts a higher positive effect on corporate income tax revenue volatility as countries experience greater dependence on natural resources. Finally, the positive effect of FDI volatility on corporate income tax revenue volatility is further amplified by higher FDI volatility.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000One important limitation of the present analysis is the use of aggregate FDI inflows because of the lack of data over a long period on greenfield FDI inflows and cross-border mergers and acquisitions FDI inflows. Therefore, an avenue for future research could be to explore separately the effect of the volatility greenfield FDI inflows and the volatility of cross-border mergers and acquisitions FDI inflows on the volatility of corporate income tax revenue, when long-time series data (covering many countries) would be available.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000These outcomes particularly shed light on the role of FDI volatility on the volatility of corporate income tax revenue, particularly in countries that are highly dependent on natural resources. Foreign capital flows, notably FDI flows, play an essential role for countries’ economic development through, inter alia, technology transfer, jobs creation and economic growth. Policymakers should aim to attract FDI, while also reducing their volatility, by designing and implementing policies and measures (such as those in favor of business environment improvement, property rights enforcement and political stability) that would assure foreign investors of the continuous high returns of their investments.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first time this topic is being addressed empirically in the literature.\u0000","PeriodicalId":36191,"journal":{"name":"Applied Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2020-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41649319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}