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Representativity and Networked Interference in Data-Rich Field Experiments: A Large-Scale RCT in Rural Mexico 代表性和网络干扰在数据丰富的现场实验:墨西哥农村的大规模随机对照试验
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-24 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz038
Alejandro Noriega, A. Pentland
{"title":"Representativity and Networked Interference in Data-Rich Field Experiments: A Large-Scale RCT in Rural Mexico","authors":"Alejandro Noriega, A. Pentland","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz038","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Modern availability of rich geospatial datasets and analysis tools can provide insight germane to the design of field experiments. Design of field experiments, and in particular the choice of sampling strategy, requires careful consideration of its consequences on the external representativity and interference (SUTVA violations) of the experimental sample. This paper presents a methodology for a) modeling the geospatial and social interaction factors that drive interference in rural field experiments; and b) eliciting a set of nondominated sample options that approximate the Pareto-optimal tradeoff between interference and external representativity, as functions of sample choice. The study develops and tests the methodology in the context of a large-scale health experiment in rural Mexico, involving more than 3,000 pregnant women and 600 health clinics across 5 states. Relevant for the practitioner, the methodology is computationally tractable and can be implemented leveraging open sourced geo-spatial data and software tools.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133244908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is There a Cost-Effective Means of Training Microenterprises? 有成本效益高的培训微型企业的方法吗?
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-23 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz031
W. Brooks, Kevin F. Donovan, Terence R. Johnson
{"title":"Is There a Cost-Effective Means of Training Microenterprises?","authors":"W. Brooks, Kevin F. Donovan, Terence R. Johnson","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz031","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Despite billions of dollars spent by policy institutions and academics, very few programs designed to increase managerial skills among microenterprises are cost-effective. This short paper highlights a mentorship program designed to provide managerial skills to Kenyan microenterprises, and it provides a detailed cost-benefit analysis. For each dollar spent on a treated firm, average profit increases by 1.63 USD; the result stems from both a higher program impact and lower cost relative to existing training programs. Motivated by this increased cost-effectiveness, the study then compares the program to the large literature focusing on “supply-side” interventions designed to increase managerial capacity in small firms, and it highlights particular margins on which mentorship improves on classroom training and also where training should focus.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122903888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Minimum Age Regulation and Child Labor: New Evidence from Brazil 最低年龄法规和童工:来自巴西的新证据
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/WBER/LHZ047
O. Bargain, D. Boutin
{"title":"Minimum Age Regulation and Child Labor: New Evidence from Brazil","authors":"O. Bargain, D. Boutin","doi":"10.1093/WBER/LHZ047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBER/LHZ047","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study presents new evidence on the effects of minimum age regulations obtained from a natural experiment. In 1998, a constitutional reform in Brazil changed the minimum working age from 14 to 16. The reform was the legislative counterpart of a broad set of measures taken by a government strongly committed to eliminating child labor. This article investigates the role of the minimum working age in this context. The setting allows for improvements upon past approaches based on comparing employment rates of children at different ages. A discontinuity in treatment is exploited, namely the fact that only children who turned 14 after the enactment date (mid-December 1998) are banned from work. According to regression discontinuity and difference-in-discontinuity designs, the null hypothesis of no overall effect of the ban cannot be rejected. Throughout the methods and specifications, an employment effect in a confidence interval of $[-0.06, , 0.03]$ (in percentage points) is found. A detailed heterogeneity analysis is performed and provides suggestive evidence of diminishing child labor trends in regions characterized by higher labor inspection intensity, which is interpreted as a trace of there being a law. However, contrary to what has been claimed in recent studies, the law seems not to have produced sizeable effects overall, at least in the short run. Power calculations and extensive sensitivity checks support these conclusions.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114385618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Booms, Busts, and Household Enterprise: Evidence from Coffee Farmers in Tanzania 繁荣、萧条和家庭企业:来自坦桑尼亚咖啡农的证据
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-17 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz044
Achyuta R. Adhvaryu, N. Kala, Anant Nyshadham
{"title":"Booms, Busts, and Household Enterprise: Evidence from Coffee Farmers in Tanzania","authors":"Achyuta R. Adhvaryu, N. Kala, Anant Nyshadham","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz044","url":null,"abstract":"We test the long-standing hypothesis that agricultural households in low-income contexts engage in intermittent enterprise activity as a way to mitigate shocks. We link panel data on smallholder coffee farmers in Tanzania with a time series of global coffee prices. We first verify that global coffee prices matter for these households, through their effects on farmgate prices, quantity of coffee sold, farm revenues and, consequently, household expenditures. We then show that enterprise ownership increases by 5 percentage points (22 percent) during coffee price busts. Surprisingly, “persistent” entrepreneurs–those households whose businesses stay open during booms and busts–increase input intensity when the coffee price is high, and reap large rewards in terms of profits and business survival. Our results suggest that policymakers should 1) encourage smoothing mechanisms like savings, commodity storage, and price floors to better insulate households from global commodity market fluctuations; and 2) help intermittent household enterprises by reducing geographical and informational barriers to trade during busts.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122883402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Estimating Treatment Effects with Big Data When Take-up is Low: An Application to Financial Education 利用大数据估计低吸纳的治疗效果:在金融教育中的应用
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-14 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz045
Gabriel Lara Ibarra, David McKenzie, Claudia Ruiz-Ortega
{"title":"Estimating Treatment Effects with Big Data When Take-up is Low: An Application to Financial Education","authors":"Gabriel Lara Ibarra, David McKenzie, Claudia Ruiz-Ortega","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz045","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Low take-up of interventions is a common problem faced by evaluations of development programs. A leading case is financial education programs, which are increasingly offered by governments, nonprofits, and financial institutions, but which often have very low voluntary participation rates. This poses a severe challenge for randomized experiments attempting to measure their impact. This study uses a large experiment on more than 100,000 credit card clients in Mexico. The study shows how the richness of financial data allows combining matching and difference-in-difference methods with the experiment to yield credible measures of impact, even with take-up rates below 1 percent. The findings show that a financial education workshop and personalized coaching result in a higher likelihood of paying credit cards on time, and of making more than the minimum payment, but do not reduce spending, resulting in higher profitability for the bank.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"17 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114041934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Changing Pedagogy to Improve Skills in Preschools: Experimental Evidence from Peru 改变教学方法提高学龄前儿童的技能:来自秘鲁的实验证据
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-11 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz022
Francisco A. Gallego, Emma Näslund-Hadley, M. Alfonso
{"title":"Changing Pedagogy to Improve Skills in Preschools: Experimental Evidence from Peru","authors":"Francisco A. Gallego, Emma Näslund-Hadley, M. Alfonso","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz022","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Changing pedagogical practices is a promising, cost-effective avenue for improving education in developing countries, especially when done without changing current inputs such as teachers and instruction time. This article presents the results of a randomized evaluation of a program that aimed at changing the pedagogical approach used to teach the existing national mathematics curriculum. The program provides tools to regular preschool teachers to use an inquiry- and problem-based learning approach to tailor instruction to preschoolers in Peru. The results show an improvement of overall mathematics outcomes, which persist for some content areas even one year after the program ended. In contrast to results from previous research that suggest mathematics programs are biased along gender and socioeconomic lines, there is no evidence of differential effects by gender, language spoken at home, or proxies for socioeconomic status. Results also imply persistent stronger impacts on students whose teachers have university degrees.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129675810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Comparing Costs of Living across World Cities 比较世界各城市的生活成本
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-10 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz037
Shohei Nakamura, Rawaa Harati, S. Lall, Y. Dikhanov, Nada Hamadeh, W. Oliver, M. Rissanen, M. Yamanaka
{"title":"Comparing Costs of Living across World Cities","authors":"Shohei Nakamura, Rawaa Harati, S. Lall, Y. Dikhanov, Nada Hamadeh, W. Oliver, M. Rissanen, M. Yamanaka","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz037","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper compares costs of living across world cities. The International Comparison Program (ICP) reports price levels across world economies in its calculation of purchasing power parity through an extensive scale of price data collection and rigorous methodology. While the price levels are reported only at the national level, some modification makes it possible to compare the cost of living across a group of world cities. In addition, various agencies report costs of living rankings for world cities on a regular basis, and some of them, such as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)’s World Cost of Living Survey, systematically collect a wide variety of items from a host of cities, even covering low-income countries. This article's application of the ICP method to the EIU price data yields an overall reasonable result: richer cities have higher price levels, and the rankings of cities based on their price levels are similar when using the ICP and EIU data. Nevertheless, the results based on the EIU data differ from the ICP data relatively widely in some nonfood items and among cities with low price levels. This result highlights important issues regarding the data and methodology required to measure costs of living for development purposes.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130697057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Understanding Nonresponse Rates: Insights from 600,000 Opinion Surveys 了解无回复率:来自60万份民意调查的见解
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-04 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz040
G. Reyes
{"title":"Understanding Nonresponse Rates: Insights from 600,000 Opinion Surveys","authors":"G. Reyes","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz040","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Despite the central role of surveys in empirical research, academics have not paid enough attention to the factors that affect response rates. This is especially concerning since survey response rates—of both household and opinion surveys—have been declining over time (Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan, 2015), which might lead to distorted survey results. This paper explores how the underlying design of each survey—such as its length and the day of the week in which the survey was conducted—affects the response rates of the survey.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126175124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The ABCDE of Big Data: Assessing Biases in Call-Detail Records for Development Estimates 大数据的ABCDE:评估开发评估呼叫详细记录中的偏差
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-12-03 DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhz039
G. Pestre, E. Letouzé, E. Zagheni
{"title":"The ABCDE of Big Data: Assessing Biases in Call-Detail Records for Development Estimates","authors":"G. Pestre, E. Letouzé, E. Zagheni","doi":"10.1093/wber/lhz039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhz039","url":null,"abstract":"This article contributes to improving our understanding of biases in estimates of demographic indicators, in the developing world, based on Call Detail Records (CDRs). CDRs represent an important and largely untapped source of data for the developing world. However, they are not representative of the underlying population. We combine CDRs and census data for Senegal in 2013 to evaluate biases related to estimates of population density. We show that: (i) there are systematic relationships between cell-phone use and socio-economic and geographic characteristics that can be leveraged to improve estimates of population density; (ii) when no ‘ground truth’ data is available, a difference-in-difference approach can be used to reduce bias and infer relative changes over time in population size at the subnational level; (iii) indicators of development, including urbanization and internal, circular, and temporary migration, can be monitored by integrating census data and CDRs. The paper is intended to offer a methodological contribution and examples of applications related to combining new and traditional data sources to improve our ability to monitor development indicators over time and space.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128294458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Purchase Patterns, Socioeconomic Status, and Political Inclination 购买模式、社会经济地位和政治倾向
The World Bank Economic Review Pub Date : 2019-11-30 DOI: 10.1093/WBER/LHZ008
Xiaowen Dong, E. Jahani, A. Morales, B. Bozkaya, B. Lepri, A. Pentland
{"title":"Purchase Patterns, Socioeconomic Status, and Political Inclination","authors":"Xiaowen Dong, E. Jahani, A. Morales, B. Bozkaya, B. Lepri, A. Pentland","doi":"10.1093/WBER/LHZ008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBER/LHZ008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper analyzes millions of credit card transaction records during several months for tens of thousands of individuals from two different countries. The study shows that, purchase patterns are strongly correlated with important societal indices such as socioeconomic status and political inclination. The results suggest the possibility of understanding and predicting the evolution of such societal indices from purchase behavioral patterns, potentially at high temporal and spatial resolutions.","PeriodicalId":361118,"journal":{"name":"The World Bank Economic Review","volume":"61 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116270559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
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