电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-30DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.4_2020144
Duanbing Chen, Wei Bai, Yan Wang, Min Wang, Wujuan Yu, Tao Zhou
{"title":"Quantitative Evaluation on the Prevention and Control Efficacy of COVID-19","authors":"Duanbing Chen, Wei Bai, Yan Wang, Min Wang, Wujuan Yu, Tao Zhou","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.4_2020144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.4_2020144","url":null,"abstract":"It is significant to formulate effective measures to contain the spread of serious infectious diseases such as COVID-19, especially in the early stage of spread. Effective reproduction number is one of the key parameters to evaluate the effectiveness. It is difficult to estimate the effective reproduction number due to the incomplete symptom onsets. A model based on Monte Carlo method is proposed to estimate the effective reproduction number by using small number of symptom onsets. The control efficacy of Chinese mainland and some international countries is evaluated by the estimation of effective reproduction number. COVID-19 was effectively suppressed in two weeks after introducing A-level control measure at January 20, 2020. The containment of COVID-19 in Republic of Korea has also achieved some progresses.","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46352140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-30DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.16_2020201
J. Liao, Z. Yang, Tao Zhou
{"title":"Nursing Role Results in Higher Susceptibility of Women: Analyzing Family Clusters during COVID-19 Outbreaks","authors":"J. Liao, Z. Yang, Tao Zhou","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.16_2020201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.16_2020201","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49277717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-30DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.14_2020079
Wen Zheng, Cai Zhao, Z. Li, X. Wu, Tao Hu
{"title":"Epidemiological Characteristics of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Based on Web Data Mining","authors":"Wen Zheng, Cai Zhao, Z. Li, X. Wu, Tao Hu","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.14_2020079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.14_2020079","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the Selenium data mining technology, the epidemiological characteristics of real help cases in Sina Weibo were obtained by the analysis of 690 valid cases posted in the Sina Weibo “Pneumonia Patients Asking for Help” topic from February 4 to February 22, 2020. The research showed that 97.6% of the patients seeking for help came from Wuhan, mainly centralized in Wuchang, Tongkou, Hanyang etc. urban areas, and the proportion is directly proportional to the local medical resources and population density. The cases of Weibo help were mainly distributed from February 4 to February 7, 2020. With the relief of medical resources, the number of cases seeking help through social media decreased significantly. The distribution of patients, whose diagnosed date was mainly from January 16 to February 6, 2020, was basically consistent with the case information released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC). The median age of patients seeking for help was 60 years old, which was much higher than the data released by the CCDC but was roughly coincident with the data of the central hospital of Wuhan. The results of this study indicate that when dealing with major outbreaks of infectious diseases, social media are equally important in epidemiological analysis as well as the role in the dissemination of public opinion. Based on the wide adoption and timeliness nature of social media, it will be helpful for decision-makers to quickly grasp the real-world situation as it is combined with data mining or big data analysis.","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46888535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-01DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.9_2020029
Fan Ruguo, Wang Yi-bo, Luo Ming, Zhang Yingqing, Zhu Chao-ping
{"title":"SEIR-Based COVID-19 Transmission Model and Inflection Point Prediction Analysis","authors":"Fan Ruguo, Wang Yi-bo, Luo Ming, Zhang Yingqing, Zhu Chao-ping","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.9_2020029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.9_2020029","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 has severely affected the country, and people's social and economic lives have been greatly disrupted. Based on the complex network theory, a SEIR dynamic model of the COVID-19 epidemic with a latency period is established in this paper. By setting three scenarios of different incubation periods of the virus, based on national and partial epidemic data, the model parameters are simulated and analyzed for different scenarios. The inflection points of the three cases are predicted, and the results showed that the model analysis is basically consistent with the true performance of the epidemic development. Finally, the paper concludes with specific countermeasures and suggestions for strengthening the prevention and control of the epidemic.","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48856618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-01DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.6_2020067
Liang Kai-hao, Zhang Wen-feng, Zhang Xiao-hua, WU Zhuo-kui, Liu Qin, Zhang Chao-long, Li Zi-long
{"title":"Analysis of Spread Dynamics of Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV","authors":"Liang Kai-hao, Zhang Wen-feng, Zhang Xiao-hua, WU Zhuo-kui, Liu Qin, Zhang Chao-long, Li Zi-long","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.6_2020067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.6_2020067","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread dynamics of COVID-19, SARS and MERS. Based on the growth rate and infection inhibition constant of infectious diseases, the propagation growth model of infectious diseases is established, and then the parameters of the propagation growth model of three coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, are obtained by nonlinear fitting. The analysis shows that the growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 is about twice that of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and the doubling period of SARS-CoV-2 is two to three days. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei province is two orders of magnitude lower than that in other areas, which is consistent with the situation in Hubei.","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43366071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-01DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.13_2020172
Sun Hao-chen, Xu Ming-da, Xu Xiao-ke
{"title":"Infection and Prevention of COVID-19 in Schools Based on Real-Life Interpersonal Contact Data","authors":"Sun Hao-chen, Xu Ming-da, Xu Xiao-ke","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.13_2020172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.13_2020172","url":null,"abstract":"With the stabilization of the COVID-19 in China, the resumption of study has become the hottest issue most concerned by the people. The long-time gathering and face-to-face contact of students and teachers in schools increase the risk of their mutual infection. Although school suspension is generally considered to be the most feasible strategy to alleviate epidemics, large-scale isolation is often accompanied by high socio-economic costs and even social panic. Therefore, when an outbreak occurs in schools, we need to try to use more detailed scientific prevention and control measures. In this study, the spread of the COVID-19 in schools is simulated based on real interpersonal contact data, and the prevention and control measures are formulated by calculating the effective distance among students. This study finds that students have more contact with students in the same class and grade in schools. Therefore, when cases are found in schools, the development of the epidemic can be controlled by closing the patient's class and grade in time, and it will achieve similar or even better results than the closed school. In addition, in the absence of closure and the application of prevention and control measures, the impact of the proportion of asymptomatic patients and the incubation period infectivity in school outbreaks are analyzed, respectively. After the prevention and control measures are applied, the epidemic situation in each case will be controlled, and it will soon usher in a time when the epidemic situation improves. The research in this paper helps schools to select appropriate prevention and control measures, and accurately assess the impact of asymptomatic patients and incubation period infectivity on the epidemic.","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47316880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-01DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.5_2020037
Lin Zhang
{"title":"Fitness of the Generalized Growth to the COVID-19 Data","authors":"Lin Zhang","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.5_2020037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.5_2020037","url":null,"abstract":"A generalized growth model is applied to fit the time series of cumulative confirmed cases between Jan. 15 to Feb. 15, 2020. Moreover, the same formula is also applied to the time series of cumulative susceptive cases and cumulative close contact cases from Jan. 23 to Feb. 15, 2020. The model tallies with data published by the National Health Commission. The sub-exponential and sub-linear growth reflect the time heterogeneity during the transmission of COVID-19, which provide the reference to the prediction of the growth trend of the transmission.","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42997348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
电子科技大学学报Pub Date : 2020-05-01DOI: 10.12178/1001-0548.2_2020033
Xu Xiao-ke, Wen Cheng, Z. Guang-yao, Sun Hao-chen, Liu Bo, Wang Xian-wen
{"title":"The Geographical Destination Distribution and Effect of Outflow Population of Wuhan When the Outbreak of COVID-19","authors":"Xu Xiao-ke, Wen Cheng, Z. Guang-yao, Sun Hao-chen, Liu Bo, Wang Xian-wen","doi":"10.12178/1001-0548.2_2020033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12178/1001-0548.2_2020033","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we provide a statistical analysis of population movements leaving Wuhan based on mass population movement information which is collected by geographic services of Tencent and Baidu. Firstly, we find that the five million people leaving Wuhan before the official announcement that they will close the exits are not much different from the normal population movement during the previous Spring Festival travel rush. However, small portion of the population poured out of Wuhan in the last period before the exits closed. Secondly, according to statistics of the destination cities of the outflow population from Wuhan starting from 2020, we find that the destination distribution of folks in 2020 was basically same as that in previous years. Finally, the influence of the population leaving Wuhan on epidemic spread is analyzed. We find that the role of incubation period must be considered when measuring this influence. This study is helpful for relevant personnel to grasp the speed of epidemic spread, assess the risk of epidemic, and provides reference to predict and stop disease spreading.","PeriodicalId":35864,"journal":{"name":"电子科技大学学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48881599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}