Inferring the Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic with Close Contacts Counting

Q4 Engineering
Suoyi Tan, Z. Cao, Shuo Qin, Saran Chen, B. Sai, S. Guo, Chu Chu Liu, Mengsi Cai, Tao Zhou, Wei Zhang, Xin Lu
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Close contacts with high-risk exposure to COVID-19 cases are more robust in statistics for inferring future development of COVID-19 epidemic In Beijing, the proportion of close contact cases in newly confirmed cases had increased from about 50% at the end of January to nearly 100% in mid-February, indicating that contact tracing and quarantine measures are effective non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the epidemic In addition, we show at the national level that the cumulative number of close contacts was stabilized at about eight times as much as infected individuals, and the growth rate of daily close contacts was consistent with that of daily confirmed cases 5~6 days later Consequently, tracking the daily change of close contacts is beneficial to predict the trend of the epidemic, based on which advanced medical supplies scheduling and effective epidemic prevention can be achieved © 2020, Editorial Board of Journal of the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China All right reserved
用密切接触者计数推断新冠肺炎疫情发展趋势
与新冠肺炎高风险接触者的密切接触者在推断新冠肺炎疫情未来发展的统计数据中更为稳健。在北京,密切接触者病例在新增确诊病例中的比例从1月底的约50%增加到2月中旬的近100%,表明接触者追踪和隔离措施是遏制疫情的有效非药物干预措施。此外,我们在国家层面上表明,密切接触者的累计人数稳定在感染者的8倍左右,5~6天后,每日密切接触者的增长率与每日确诊病例的增长率一致。因此,追踪密切接触者每日的变化有利于预测疫情的趋势,在此基础上可以实现先进的医疗物资调度和有效的防疫©2020,电子科技大学学报编委会版权所有
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
电子科技大学学报
电子科技大学学报 Engineering-Electrical and Electronic Engineering
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
7228
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