Fitness of the Generalized Growth to the COVID-19 Data

Abstract

A generalized growth model is applied to fit the time series of cumulative confirmed cases between Jan. 15 to Feb. 15, 2020. Moreover, the same formula is also applied to the time series of cumulative susceptive cases and cumulative close contact cases from Jan. 23 to Feb. 15, 2020. The model tallies with data published by the National Health Commission. The sub-exponential and sub-linear growth reflect the time heterogeneity during the transmission of COVID-19, which provide the reference to the prediction of the growth trend of the transmission.