{"title":"'Tropical' Real Business Cycles? A Bayesian Exploration","authors":"Andrés Fernández Martin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1944179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1944179","url":null,"abstract":"Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We don't find evidence of it. We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical fiscal policies; terms of trade fluctuations; and perturbations to the foreign interest rate coupled with financial frictions and estimate it using Bayesian methods on high and low frequency data from a developing - and \"tropical\" - country, Colombia. We find interest rate shocks to be crucial and that financial frictions play a central role as propagating mechanisms of transitory technology shocks. These two driving forces alone can account well for the observed properties of the Colombian business cycle. Other structural shocks such as terms of trade fluctuations and level shifts in the technology process do not appear to be relevant in the past decade and a half, but their importance increases when a longer span of data is considered.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125454436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"While the Crisis Proceeds: A World Redistribution of Economic Power?","authors":"R. Flôres","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1942858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1942858","url":null,"abstract":"The crisis has drawn attention to the fact that not only emerging powers but other regions of the world as well may be offering different development models and may constitute into alternative, in some dimensions more positive agents, in the conduct of the present stage of globalisation. Notwithstanding, the traditional western powers have not lost a large amount of control of the world economy. And the crisis proceeds, reallocating world power as in a Hobbesian anarchy. It is difficult to foresee smooth developments in the near future. On the contrary, multilateralism seems to be losing ground to unilateral action or bilateral arrangements. More or less disguised currency wars may lead to serious disequilibria, and turf wars may become more frequent, with motives ranging from securing captive markets to control of specific commodities and energy goods, or targeted regulatory frameworks. As economic policy becomes even more involved with defence and security affairs, the feedbacks from each side to the other seem likely to keep dissent and animosity high, rather than contributing to peaceful and constructive approaches. A more trouble-prone world may be easily expected.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124906473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"New Imported Inputs, New Domestic Products","authors":"Italo Colantone, Rosario Crinó","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1933788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1933788","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of new imported inputs on the entry of new domestic products and their characteristics. To this purpose, we construct a novel, comprehensive and extremely detailed dataset, which contains product-level information on foreign trade and domestic production for 25 EU countries over 1995-2007. Using these data, we identify new domestic goods and new imported inputs, controlling for all changes in commodity classifications over time. We then show that new imported inputs substantially boost the introduction of new domestic products. We also show that this effect is directly proportional to the quality of new imported inputs and inversely related to their price (conditional on quality). Finally, we document that new products are characterized by higher prices and higher quality relative to existing goods, and that such premia are larger the greater is the use of new imported inputs in production.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114773439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"After the Microfinance Crisis: Assessing the Role of Government-Led Microcredit Alternatives","authors":"J. De la torre, X. Giné, T. Vishwanath","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-5808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5808","url":null,"abstract":"In light of the recent microfinance crisis in South India, government-run institutions in general, and primary agricultural credit cooperatives in particular, may end up playing a larger role in the provision of financial services for the poor. Using survey data collected in 2007 from three districts in Andhra Pradesh, this paper assesses the performance of 72 primary agricultural credit cooperatives and finds lack of training among the management. In addition, primary agricultural credit cooperatives tend to be used as political instruments and, as a result, borrowers prioritize all debt obligations (microfinance institutions, informal lenders, etc.) before repaying their primary agricultural credit cooperative loans. The authors suggest that if the performance of primary agricultural credit cooperatives does not improve, a larger government role in the supply of credit may undermine the culture of repayment.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122669400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cecilia Llambí, Silvia Laens, M. Perera, Mery Ferrando
{"title":"Assessing the Impact of the 2007 Tax Reform on Poverty and Inequality in Uruguay","authors":"Cecilia Llambí, Silvia Laens, M. Perera, Mery Ferrando","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1937756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1937756","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of a sharp rise in poverty incidence and increasing inequality since the end of the last decade, a major Tax Reform was enforced by the middle of 2007, with the explicit goals of promoting greater efficiency and equity in the Uruguayan tax system. Overall, the Reform substantially increased direct taxation on personal income with increasing marginal rates, lowered indirect taxes and direct taxes on firms, uniformed the employer contribution to social security across sectors of activity and eliminated some highly distortive taxes. We assess the joint effect of these main changes on macro balances, on labour market and on poverty and inequality using a top-down static CGE – microsimulation approach. We find that the full implementation of the Tax Reform has significant general equilibrium effects, which tend to reinforce the reduction of poverty incidence, poverty gap and severity of poverty exclusively due to the introduction of the personal income tax, without behavioural responses. Regarding poverty, the magnitude of the general equilibrium effects is significantly more important than the direct effect, but concerning inequality indicators, general equilibrium effects provoke a minor additional reduction of Gini indexes.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134208016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Savings Mobilization, Financial Development and Liberalization: The Case of Malaysia","authors":"J. Ang","doi":"10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00411.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00411.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia's remarkable savings performance. Drawing on the life cycle theory, the saving function is estimated by incorporating other relevant structural features and institutional settings of the Malaysian economy into the specification. Particular emphasis has been placed on the roles of financial factors in mobilizing funds in the private sector. The results suggest that financial deepening and increased banking density tend to encourage private savings. Development of insurance markets and liberalization of the financial system, however, tend to exert a dampening effect on private savings.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129251552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unity in Diversity: A Global Consensus on Choosing the IMF’S Managing Director — Evidence from CGD's Online Survey","authors":"D. Wheeler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1931019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1931019","url":null,"abstract":"On May 19, 2011, the Center for Global Development launched an online survey of the global development community on three issues: the selection process for the IMF’s managing director, criteria for rating the candidates, and actual ratings for 15 candidates who had been named by the international media. Between May 19 and June 23, CGD received 790 responses from people whose characteristics reflect the diversity of the international finance and development community. Survey participants represent 81 nations, all world regions, high-, middle-, and low-income countries, and all adult age groups. In this working paper, David Wheeler analyzes the survey results, incorporating the diversity of the respondents by dividing participants into four mutually exclusive assessment groups- Europeans, who have a particular interest in this context; non-European nationals of other high-income countries; and nationals of middle- and low-income countries. Although the participants are diverse, their responses indicate striking unity on all three survey issues. First, both European and non-European participants reject Europe’s traditional selection prerogative by large margins, with equally strong support for an open, transparent, competitive selection process. Second, participants exhibit uniformity in the relative importance they ascribe to CGD’s six criteria for selecting candidates. Third, the participants exhibit striking consistency in rating the fifteen candidates.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"59 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123496360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A General Method for Creating Lorenz Curves","authors":"Zuxiang Wang, Y. Ng, R. Smyth","doi":"10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00425.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00425.x","url":null,"abstract":"A general method to construct parametric Lorenz models of the weighted‐product form is offered in this paper. Initially, a general result to describe the conditions for the weighted‐product model to be a Lorenz curve, created by using several component parametric Lorenz models, is given. We show that the key property for an ideal component model is that the ratio between its second derivative and its first derivative is increasing. Then, a set of Lorenz models, consisting of a basic group of models, along with their convex combinations, is proposed, and it is shown that any model in the set possesses this key property. We introduce the concept of balanced fit, which provides a means of assigning weights, according to the preferences of the practitioner, to two alternative objectives for developing Lorenz curves in practice. These objectives are generating an acceptable Lorenz curve and improving the accuracy of the density estimation. We apply the balanced fit approach to income survey data from China to illustrate the performance of our models. We first show that our models outperform other popular traditional Lorenz models in the literature. Second, we compare the results generated by the balanced fit approach applied to one of the Lorenz models that we develop with those generated by the kernel method to show that the approach proposed in the paper generates plausible density estimates.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115433088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Role of South-South FDI in the Economies of Developing Asia","authors":"R. Lipsey, F. Sjöholm","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1943285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1943285","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to measure the size of South–South foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing East Asia and the trends in it, and the characteristics of the investing countries and the investments themselves. It also summarizes the findings of studies in individual countries of the effects of these investments. The studies of individual countries will be used to try to find some consensus on differences between South–South FDI and North–South FDI. Among the comparisons of the two types of FDI we try to summarize are findings about their industrial composition; their effects on their host countries; and their host-country firms’ productivity, wages, and employment, and explore how these differ across industries. Our analysis shows that the increased presence of South FDI in East and Southeast Asia might have different effects on host economies from those of FDI from the North.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"1 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120926336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Austerity Measures Threaten Children and Poor Households: Recent Evidence in Public Expenditures from 128 Developing Countries","authors":"I. Ortiz, Jingqing Chai, M. Cummins","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1934510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1934510","url":null,"abstract":"In the wake of the food, fuel and financial shocks, a fourth wave of the global economic crisis began to sweep across developing countries in 2010: fiscal austerity. Serving as an update of earlier research by UNICEF, this working paper: (i) examines the latest IMF government spending projections for 128 developing countries, comparing the three periods of 2005-07 (pre-crisis), 2008-09 (crisis phase I: fiscal expansion) and 2010-12 (crisis phase II: fiscal contraction); (ii) discusses the possible risks for social expenditures; (iii) assesses the most common adjustment measures being considered by developing countries in 2010-11 and their potentially adverse impacts on vulnerable populations; and (iv) summarizes a series of alternative policy options that are available to governments to expand fiscal space and ensure a Recovery for All, including children and poor households.","PeriodicalId":355227,"journal":{"name":"Development Economics eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125054388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}