Puti k miru i bezopasnosti最新文献_第5页

Time capsule: revisiting American strategies on Afghanistan after theу failed 时间胶囊:在阿富汗战争失败后重新审视美国的阿富汗战略

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-263-275

I. Safranchuk

{"title":"Time capsule: revisiting American strategies on Afghanistan after theу failed","authors":"I. Safranchuk","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-263-275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-263-275","url":null,"abstract":"A plethora of opinions expressed in the U.S. political and expert circles on the intervention in Afghanistan did not produce an answer to the question about the future of the American operation. Amidst this uncertainty, the book by Barnett Rubin and his colleagues revisits some fundamental issues regarding the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The authors’ main idea is that the isolation of Afghanistan impedes its development because the country only partially participates in international division of labor, while lack of development fuels multiple internal contradictions. As a result, the Afghan government lacks the income to provide basic public goods or sustain order. It was argued that the solution is to reintegrate Afghanistan into world economy through development of export industries and to reinforce the central government. In practice, all attempts to strengthen the Afghan government only led to its growing reliance on the United States. However, after the fall of the pro-American regime, the Taliban started to implement the program of reinforcing the central government in Afghanistan, albeit from different ideological positions. The historical paradox will be if the Taliban succeed in this effort where the pro-American regime failed.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Conflicts in the Middle East: prospects for escalation in the context of general regional instability in the 2020s 中东冲突:21世纪20年代地区总体不稳定背景下升级的前景

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-120-132

A. Malashenko

{"title":"Conflicts in the Middle East: prospects for escalation in the context of general regional instability in the 2020s","authors":"A. Malashenko","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-120-132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-120-132","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyses Middle Eastern conflicts in the early 2020s. The main focus is on the situation in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, three Middle Eastern conflicts that are progressing, with no solution in sight. These conflicts motivated by social, economic and political reasons became a progression of those protests that have started in 2011 and have been called “The Arab Spring”. These “revolutions” have been promoted by Islamist movements and groups whose activity became one of key factors of perpetual tensions in the region. So far, attempts by conflict parties to find consensual solutions have remained rather unsuccessful. Positive resolution of actual and potential conflicts in the Greater Middle East to a significant extent still depends on external regional and non-regional actors, such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. However, each actor involved in these conflicts and in conflict management pursues its own goals. These actors try to retain their positions and influence in these Middle Eastern countries and in the region as a whole. According to the forecast made in the article, more conflicts in the region may be foreseen (in Iraq, the Persian Gulf states etc.) that could form the next wave of the “Arab Spring”.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Post-election crisis in Myanmar 缅甸大选后危机

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-89-98

K. Efremova

{"title":"Post-election crisis in Myanmar","authors":"K. Efremova","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-89-98","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-89-98","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the current political situation in Myanmar where the military came back to power in February 2021. The legality of introducing the state of emergency by the military and of transferring the state power to the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is addressed. The situation in Myanmar is also compared with the neighbouring Thailand where military takeovers have become a political routine. The difference between Myanmar’s and Thailand’s coups and their perceptions by the international community is highlighted. The “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi factor” and the political-information campaign against Myanmar in global mass media are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the U.S. policy towards Myanmar as a country that is strategically located at the coast of the Bay of Bengal. The role of U.S.-based charity funds and social networks in organizing mass protests in Myanmar, in reaction to the state of emergency declared by the military, is explored. The Civil Disobedience Movement’s actions, goals and practical results are discussed. Finally, the article outlines scenarios of future developments and focuses on the key role of Myanmar’s military (the Tatmadaw) in peaceful solution of the post-election political crisis in Myanmar.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Afghan marathon: why no one is in a rush at the Doha talks 阿富汗马拉松:为什么没有人急于在多哈谈判

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-99-119

M. Nessar

引用次数: 0

International practices of conflict mediation in the era of digital technologies 数字技术时代冲突调解的国际实践

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-11-28

Y. Nikitina, K. Taran

引用次数: 0

Peace agreements in armed conflicts: focusing on finding a solution to the conflict incompatibility 武装冲突中的和平协定:重点是寻找冲突不相容的解决办法

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-11-23

S. Hogbladh

{"title":"Peace agreements in armed conflicts: focusing on finding a solution to the conflict incompatibility","authors":"S. Hogbladh","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-11-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-11-23","url":null,"abstract":"The Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Peace Agreement Dataset was first published in 2006. Its main goal was to provide the research community with a dataset on peace agreements that was not linked to conflict termination, i. e. included both successful and failed agreements. The latest update of the dataset includes 355 peace agreements concluded in the 1975–2018 period. A number of studies have been based on the dataset over the years. The dataset is unique in its strict connection to the UCDP conflict data and in its focus on the conflict dyad, actors, and the conflict incompatibility. The dataset’s focus on only those agreements that involve the dyadic relationship between primary warring parties – between governments and rebel groups or between two governments – has direct policy implications, as it is exactly these parties who need to change their stances on incompatibilities in order to solve a conflict. Also, the Peace Agreement Dataset’s focus on agreements that address the key incompatibilities contested by the parties allow it to distinguish peace agreements on other negotiated deals, including ceasefires, and to differentiate between full, partial and peace process agreements. Finally, the analysis of key trends in peace agreements is presented. It shows that in contrast to the previous historical peak in the number of armed conflicts back in the early 1990s that corresponded to the peak in annual numbers of peace agreements, the new peak in annual numbers of armed conflicts in the late 2010s was not matched by a similar rise in peace agreements.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards more pragmatic UN peace operations? 更务实的联合国维和行动?

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-186-188

T. Jiang

引用次数: 0

North Africa: comparative counterterrorism 北非:比较反恐

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-197-201

G. Yushvayeva

引用次数: 0

The evolution of relations between resource companies and indigenous peoples in the Russian Arctic 俄罗斯北极地区资源公司与土著人民关系的演变

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-181-196

V. Smorchkova

引用次数: 0

Evolution of the Biden administration’s approach to Iran nuclear deal and prospects for regional peace 拜登政府对伊朗核协议的态度演变与地区和平前景

Puti k miru i bezopasnosti Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-129-138

S. Mousavian, Y. Mahmoudieh

引用次数: 0