时间胶囊:在阿富汗战争失败后重新审视美国的阿富汗战略

I. Safranchuk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在美国政界和专家圈子里,对于美国在阿富汗的军事行动的未来,人们表达了大量的意见,但并没有给出一个答案。在这种不确定性中,Barnett Rubin和他的同事们重新审视了美国在阿富汗战争的一些基本问题。作者的主要观点是,阿富汗的孤立阻碍了其发展,因为该国只部分参与国际分工,而缺乏发展则助长了多重内部矛盾。因此,阿富汗政府缺乏收入来提供基本的公共产品或维持秩序。有人主张,通过发展出口产业和强化中央政府,使阿富汗重新融入世界经济是解决之道。实际上,所有加强阿富汗政府的努力只会导致阿富汗越来越依赖美国。然而,在亲美政权倒台后,塔利班开始实施加强阿富汗中央政府的计划,尽管他们的意识形态立场不同。历史悖论将是,如果塔利班在亲美政权失败的情况下取得成功。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Time capsule: revisiting American strategies on Afghanistan after theу failed
A plethora of opinions expressed in the U.S. political and expert circles on the intervention in Afghanistan did not produce an answer to the question about the future of the American operation. Amidst this uncertainty, the book by Barnett Rubin and his colleagues revisits some fundamental issues regarding the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The authors’ main idea is that the isolation of Afghanistan impedes its development because the country only partially participates in international division of labor, while lack of development fuels multiple internal contradictions. As a result, the Afghan government lacks the income to provide basic public goods or sustain order. It was argued that the solution is to reintegrate Afghanistan into world economy through development of export industries and to reinforce the central government. In practice, all attempts to strengthen the Afghan government only led to its growing reliance on the United States. However, after the fall of the pro-American regime, the Taliban started to implement the program of reinforcing the central government in Afghanistan, albeit from different ideological positions. The historical paradox will be if the Taliban succeed in this effort where the pro-American regime failed.
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