{"title":"Covid-19 and Food Protectionism: The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets","authors":"A. Espitia, N. Rocha, M. Ruta","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9253","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the impact of Covid-19 and uncooperative trade policies on world food markets. It quantifies the initial shock due to the pandemic under the assumption that products that are more labor intensive in production are more affected through workers' morbidity and containment policies. It then estimates how escalating export restrictions to shield domestic food markets could magnify the initial shock. The analysis shows that, in the quarter following the outbreak of the pandemic, the global export supply of food could decrease between 6 and 20 percent and global prices increase between 2 and 6 percent on average. Escalating export restrictions would multiply the initial shock by a factor of 3, with world food prices rising by up to 18 percent on average. Import food dependent countries, which are in large majority developing and least developed countries, would be most affected.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"125 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127630383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xavier Espinet Alegre, Z. Stanton-Geddes, Sadig Aliyev
{"title":"Analyzing Flooding Impacts on Rural Access to Hospitals and Other Critical Services in Rural Cambodia Using Geo-Spatial Information and Network Analysis","authors":"Xavier Espinet Alegre, Z. Stanton-Geddes, Sadig Aliyev","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9262","url":null,"abstract":"Transport connectivity in Cambodia is challenged by its geography and exposure to recurrent flooding. Flood events create severe disruptions in segments of the transport network that undermine access to health, education, and work opportunities as well as create barriers to economic growth. Rural accessibility to emergency health facilities and delivery of medicines and basic food supplies is particularly critical in times of major health crises, such as the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. This paper provides a method to quantify the impact of flooding on hospital access and other critical facilities, aiming to support governments on setting up health emergency mitigation plans for rural transport in an environment with high flood risk. The method was piloted in three provinces in rural Cambodia, estimating that for 37 percent of the people on those provinces, it takes more than 60 minutes to reach an emergency health facility. During floods, 27 percent lose all access and 18 percent experience an increase of 30 minutes in travel time. In conclusion, this method introduces transparency and evidence-based support for prioritization of rural transport investment, identifies the social benefits (health and education) of rural infrastructure investments, and supports policy dialogue on rural development and resilience.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"475 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116188565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muthukumara S. Mani, Zekarias Hussein, G. Narayanan, Deepika Wadhwa
{"title":"Paris Climate Agreement and the Global Economy: Winners and Losers","authors":"Muthukumara S. Mani, Zekarias Hussein, G. Narayanan, Deepika Wadhwa","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8392","url":null,"abstract":"The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement was the first instance of countries adhering to take a collective action against global warming. More than 190 countries came forward and submitted their contributions in the form of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, reflective of their ability and capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as each country set its own targets and actions. For some countries, it meant a significant decline in their emissions by 2030, while others, like China, the United States, and India, decided on a more gradual phasing out extending beyond 2030. This paper estimates the economic impacts of implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement in terms of its implications for welfare, gross domestic product, investments, and trade for major countries and regions. It uses a computable general equilibrium framework to model global, regional, and country impacts. The analysis suggests that the economic impacts will be mostly felt in the European Union if the Paris Agreement is fully implemented. The European Union is likely to suffer a welfare loss of 1.0 to 1.5 percent by 2030. Among non-European countries, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico will also be affected, with an expected welfare loss of about 1.5 percent. Some of the major emitters, such as China and India, will experience minimal impacts to their welfare, and the United States will experience a welfare loss of only about 0.7 by 2030. The sectoral analysis of production and trade suggests a significant loss to fossil fuel–based sectors, while clean energy sectors can experience significant gains.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125110875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Remittances on Rural Poverty and Inequality in China","authors":"Xubei Luo","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4637","url":null,"abstract":"Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This paper examines the impact of rural-to-urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in the case of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since remittances are a potential substitute for farm income, the paper presents counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. The results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest the increasing share of non-farm income in total income widens inequality, this paper offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (i) migration is rational self-selection - farmers with higher agricultural productivities choose to remain in local agricultural production while those with higher expected return in urban non-farm sectors migrate; (ii) poorer households facing binding constraints of land shortage are more likely to migrate; and (iii) the poorest poor benefit disproportionately from remittances.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122213156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Poverty and Inequality: A Review of the Evidence","authors":"Francisco H. G. Ferreira, M. Ravallion","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4623","url":null,"abstract":"Drawing on a compilation of data from household surveys representing 130 countries, many over a period of 25 years, this paper reviews the evidence on levels and recent trends in global poverty and income inequality. It documents the negative correlations between both poverty and inequality indices, on the one hand, and mean income per capita on the other. It points to the dominant role of Asia in accounting for the bulk of the world's poverty reduction since 1981. The evolution of global inequality in the last decades is also described, with special emphasis on the different trends of inequality within and between countries. The statistical relationships between growth, inequality and poverty are discussed, as is the correlation between inequality and the growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Some of the recent literature on the drivers of distributional change in developing countries is also reviewed.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"607 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116394800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Price Subsidies on Child Health Care Use: Evaluation of the Indonesian Healthcard","authors":"A. Somanathan","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4622","url":null,"abstract":"Financial barriers to seeking care are frequently cited as one of the main causes of underutilization of child health care services. This paper estimates the impact of Indonesia's healthcard on health care use by children. Evaluation of the healthcard effect is complicated by the fact that card allocation was non-random. The analysis uses propensity score matching to control for systematic differences between treatment and control groups. A second potential source of bias is related to contemporaneous, exogenous influences on health care use unrelated to the healthcard itself. Using panel data collected prior to and after the introduction of the healthcard, a difference-in-differences estimator is constructed to eliminate the effects of exogenous changes over time. The author finds that although health care use declined for all children during the crisis years of 1997-2000, use of public sector outpatient services declined much less for children with healthcards. The protective effect of the healthcard on public sector use was concentrated among children aged 0-5 years. The healthcard had no significant impact on use of private sector services. The results highlight the need to provide adequate protection against the financial burden of health care costs, particularly during economic crises.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126308157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Earnings Inequality within and across Gender, Racial, and Ethnic Groups in Four Latin American Countries","authors":"W. Cunningham, J. Jacobsen","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4591","url":null,"abstract":"Latin American countries are generally characterized as displaying high income and earnings inequality overall along with high inequality by gender, race, and ethnicity. However, the latter phenomenon is not a major contributor to the former phenomenon. Using household survey data from four Latin American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Guatemala, and Guyana) for which stratification by race or ethnicity is possible, this paper demonstrates (using Theil index decompositions as well as Gini indices, and 90/10 and 50/10 percentile comparisons) that within-group earnings inequality rather than between-group earnings inequality is the main contributor to overall earnings inequality. Simulations in which the relatively disadvantaged gender and/or racial/ethnic group is treated as if it were the relatively advantaged group tend to reduce overall earnings inequality measures only slightly and in some cases have the effect of increasing earnings inequality measures.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"131 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134233003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Seo, R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, P. Kurukulasuriya, R. Hassan
{"title":"Long-Term Adaptation: Selecting Farm Types Across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa","authors":"S. Seo, R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, P. Kurukulasuriya, R. Hassan","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4602","url":null,"abstract":"Using economic data from more than 8,500 household surveys across 10 African countries, this paper examines whether the choice of farm type depends on the climate and agro-ecological zone of each farm. The paper also studies how farm type choice varies across farmers in each zone, using a multinomial logit choice model. Farmers are observed to choose from one of the following five types of farms: rainfed crop-only, irrigated crop-only, mixed rainfed (crop and livestock), mixed irrigated, and livestock-only farming. The authors compare current decisions against future decisions as if the only change were climate change. They focus on two climate scenarios from existing climate models: the Canadian Climate Centre scenario, which is hot and dry, and the Parallel Climate Model scenario, which is mild and wet. The results indicate that the change in farm types varies dramatically by climate scenario but also by agro-ecological zone. Policy makers must be careful to encourage the appropriate suite of measures to promote the most adapted farm type to each location.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125860485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A General Equilibrium Analysis of Demand Side Management Programs Under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol","authors":"G. Timilsina","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4563","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the economic and environmental consequences of a potential demand side management program in Thailand using a general equilibrium model. The program considers replacement of less efficient electrical appliances in the household sector with more efficient counterparts. The study further examines changes in the economic and environmental effects of the program if it is implemented under the clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, which provides carbon subsidies to the program. The study finds that the demand side management program would increase economic welfare if the ratio of unit cost of electricity savings to price of electricity is 0.4 or lower even in the absence of the clean development mechanism. If the program's ratio of unit cost of electricity savings to price of electricity is greater than 0.4, registration of the program under the clean development mechanism would be needed to achieve positive welfare impacts. The level of welfare impacts would, however, depend on the price of carbon credits the program generates. For a given level of welfare impacts, the registration of the demand side management program under the clean development mechanism would increase the volume of emission reductions.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"117 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131304293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Productivity Growth and Economic Reform: Evidence from Rwanda","authors":"K. Coulibaly, Kene Ezemenari, Neal E. Duffy","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-4552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4552","url":null,"abstract":"Trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms are shown to have exerted a positive impact on the growth of total factor productivity in Rwanda during the period 1995-2003. Based on a constant returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper regresses total factor productivity on indices of trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms. The analysis determines that trade reforms and financial reforms each contributed positively to improvements in total factor productivity. The data also suggest that the allocation of official development assistance to human capital made a significant contribution to productivity. In contrast, the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the late 1980's hindered productivity or the growth of TFP. Taken together, the findings for Rwanda presented in this paper show that the strong growth of the past decade has not just been due to a\"bounce back\"effect following the genocide. The results support the notion that policies favorable to trade development, a deepening of the financial sector, and formation of human capital have been effective for increasing aggregate productivity of the economy and stimulating growth in Rwanda. For sustained growth, the Rwandan authorities should continue to build on these policies, while also taking care to maintain an appropriate exchange rate.","PeriodicalId":348271,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: Rural Development (Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123274945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}