Journal of University Medical Dental College最新文献

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Role of HRCT in detection and characterization of pulmonary abnormalities in pediatric patient’s undergone bone marrow transplant HRCT在小儿骨髓移植患者肺部异常的检测和表征中的作用
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v14i2.798
None Tahir Mehmood, None Sidra Tahir, None Sohail Shahzad, None Muhammad Arslan Farooq, None Syed Shayan Gilani
{"title":"Role of HRCT in detection and characterization of pulmonary abnormalities in pediatric patient’s undergone bone marrow transplant","authors":"None Tahir Mehmood, None Sidra Tahir, None Sohail Shahzad, None Muhammad Arslan Farooq, None Syed Shayan Gilani","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v14i2.798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v14i2.798","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Advancements in transplant regimens, alternative grafts, and new indications have improved bone marrow transplant activity with time. Our objective is to determine the pattern of pulmonary abnormalities using High resolution computed tomography (HRCT) chest scan and to determine the diagnostic accuracy (pulmonary abnormalities) and efficacy (in terms of radiation burden) of HRCT and X-rays after bone marrow transplant.
 METHODOLOGY: It was a descriptive case series conducted at the department of Radiology, POF Hospital, Wah Cantt over a duration of 8 months (January 2021-Augest 2021). A sample size of 20 patients was calculated using the WHO calculator. Patients were recruited through non-probability consecutive sampling. Patients were undergone through HRCT and chest X-rays for diagnostic accuracy and radiation burden measurement. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 24. Fisher exact test, Receiver Operating characteristic (ROC) Curve analysis and t-test was applied for statistical analysis. p-value ≤0.05 was considered significant.
 RESULTS: A total of 20 patient’s undergone bone marrow transplants were included in the study. The mean age of patients was 5. 25years.There were 11(55%) male and 9(45%) female in study. Pattern of pulmonary abnormalities was pleural effusion 2(10%) following nodules 1(5%), pneumonia patches 1(5%), ground glass opacities 1(5%) and septal thickening 1(5%). The diagnostic accuracy of HRCT was found to be high as compared to X-rays (88% vs 57% respectively). The mean radiation dose in HRCT and mean radiation dose in X-rays’ indicate a high radiation burden in HRCT (p≤0.001).
 CONCLUSION: Despite of high radiation burden in HRCT, it had high diagnostic accuracy as compared to X-rays.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135016688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Barriers in use of colostrum, Breast milk, and supplemental feed: assessing maternal Knowledge & practices 使用初乳、母乳和补充饲料的障碍:评估孕产妇的知识和做法
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-22 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.657
Hina Jawaid, Marriam Sheraz, Khudija Amna Arif, Zia Ul Hassan, Hina Akhter
{"title":"Barriers in use of colostrum, Breast milk, and supplemental feed: assessing maternal Knowledge & practices","authors":"Hina Jawaid, Marriam Sheraz, Khudija Amna Arif, Zia Ul Hassan, Hina Akhter","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.657","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Colostrum and breast milk are not only highly nutritious but also a source of maternal antibodies for infants. We explore maternal awareness and barriers in use of colostrum and breast milk. \u0000METHODOLOGY: This cross-sectional study included mothers of children aged 3 years or less who visited primary care centers in urban and peri-urban areas of Lahore, Pakistan, between December 2020 to March 2021. \u0000RESULTS: A total of 384 mothers were included in the study, mean age was 28 years. 47% (n=179) had primary or secondary school education. Higher maternal education (p=0.05) and age were associated with better knowledge about the benefits of colostrum. Reasons for not giving colostrum among mothers without formal education (42%) were “it’s not clean milk”, while 38% of mothers with higher education give a reason they could not feed because find it difficult due to C-section. Use of supplemental feed was noted across all educational levels, 60% mothers with no educational background preferred bovine milk, whereas 79% of highly qualified ones preferred formula milk (p=0.00). The use of formula milk was more frequently observed in families with 100,000 PKR per month and above (p=0.00). 80% of mothers were unaware that bovine milk in infants can lead to anemia. \u0000CONCLUSION: There is inadequate knowledge, among mothers of all educational levels with reference to colostrum use and the relationship between consumption of bovine milk by infants and iron deficiency. Measures to improving maternal nutritional awareness and optimize infant feeding practices during antenatal visits are needed.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41722577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Listeriosis in pregnancy: a common yet underdiagnosed cause of febrile illness. 妊娠期李斯特菌病:发热性疾病的一种常见但未被确诊的病因。
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-22 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.709
Rubab Riaz, Rubina Shaheen
{"title":"Listeriosis in pregnancy: a common yet underdiagnosed cause of febrile illness.","authors":"Rubab Riaz, Rubina Shaheen","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.709","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract \u0000Food borne listeria infection is common in pregnancy as compared to general population because of the reduced immune defense mechanism in pregnancy. It may cause maternal morbidity and fetal mortality if not treated on time. Precooked meat and milk products are the main source of listeria.  The diagnosis is confirmed by blood culture and the infection is cured with ampicillin. This case report is of a patient presenting with febrile illness in second trimester of pregnancy. She gets promptly investigated for possible differential diagnosis, bacterial, viral and protozoal. Maternal complication increased till definitive management is offered.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43809173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research trends in polio during the last 50 years: a bibliometric analysis 过去50年小儿麻痹症的研究趋势:文献计量学分析
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.672
Muhammad Khan, Tauseef Ahmad, Muhammad Khan, M. Murad, M. Baig, Asmat Ali, Abdur Rehman
{"title":"Research trends in polio during the last 50 years: a bibliometric analysis","authors":"Muhammad Khan, Tauseef Ahmad, Muhammad Khan, M. Murad, M. Baig, Asmat Ali, Abdur Rehman","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.672","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Many polio cases have been reported in recent years, which strongly affect the Global Polio Eradication Initiative campaign. This study aimed to determine the global trends in polio research during the last fifty years. \u0000METHODOLOGY: An online search was conducted utilizing the Web of Science Core Collection database. The key term used was “Polio*\" and the retrieved documents were assessed for several attributes. The required graphs were generated using OriginPro 2018. Furthermore, the data were plotted for co-authorship organizations, co-authorship countries, and co-occurrence author keywords network visualization mapping using VOSviewer software for windows. \u0000RESULTS: A total of 2,345 publications were included, cited 22,872 times. The year 2017 was the most frequent year with 162 (6.91%) publications. The paper authored by Nomoto and colleagues published in 1977 was the leading paper with 237 citations. In total, Vaccine was the leading journal with 168 (7.16%) publications, followed by Journal of Infectious Diseases 106 (4.52%), and Lancet 77 (3.28%). The included publications were published from 132 countries, of which 44 countries contributed ≥10 publications. The United States of America was the leading country with the highest number of publications (n=740, 31.56%), followed by India (n=215, 9.17%), and England (n=180, 7.68%). \u0000CONCLUSION: This study provide researchers and policy makers with a comprehensive list of the key bibliometric characteristics and major contribution in polio research. Majority of the studies were published in developed countries. The developing countries need to make strong research collaborations with developed countries.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45002292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Time to rationalize the use of antibiotics 是时候合理使用抗生素了
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.721
Aisha Sajid
{"title":"Time to rationalize the use of antibiotics","authors":"Aisha Sajid","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.721","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47299392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COVID-19 pandemic and the use of tele-health by pediatricians and pediatric post graduate residents COVID-19大流行与儿科医生和儿科研究生住院医师远程医疗的使用
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.637
Tehreem Fatima, Zaib Nasir, AbdulAhad Jamshaid, Hina Ayesha
{"title":"COVID-19 pandemic and the use of tele-health by pediatricians and pediatric post graduate residents","authors":"Tehreem Fatima, Zaib Nasir, AbdulAhad Jamshaid, Hina Ayesha","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.637","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, burden on healthcare facilities has increased worldwide; which has led to acceptance of the ‘telehealth services’ by the pediatricians. Objective of this study was to determine the impact on frequency of use of tele-health services by pediatricians during the COVID-19 pandemic; and to determine the factors promoting and preventing the use of tele-health services by pediatricians. \u0000METHODOLOGY: This descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out from August 2020 to January 2021 among the pediatricians of Children Hospital Faisalabad and other affiliated hospitals of Faisalabad Medical University, Pakistan. An e-questionnaire was circulated among 357 pediatricians, which was filled and submitted by 114 pediatricians online. Demographic details and other data were collected and analyzed by SPSS v.20. P-value <0.05 was taken as significant. \u0000RESULTS: Out of 114 participants, 29(25.4%) paediatricians were already using Telehealth before the COVID-19 pandemic. Whereas, 101(88.6%) participants used Telehealth during the pandemic. There was an increase in frequency of telehealth use during the pandemic by 72(63.2%) paediatricians (p-value= 0.037). Most common factor promoting the use of telehealth during pandemic was ‘decreased chance of cross infection and maintenance of social distancing’. Most frequent factor preventing its use was ‘lack of confidence on virtual examination findings’. \u0000CONCLUSION: Telehealth provided an effective means of practicing social distancing by the paediatricians without any breach in healthcare provision. However, there are a few factors contributing to hesitancy towards it. Therefore, more platforms must be provided and incentives to be given to paediatricians to promote the use of telehealth.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48072850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding, Oral Hygiene Practices, Behaviors and Myths to deal with Toothache in Rural Areas 农村地区应对牙痛的认识、口腔卫生习惯、行为和误区
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.575
Sarang Suresh Hotchandani, Priya Rani Harjani, Suneel Kumar Punjabi, Mowaffaq Abdullmomen Al Absi, Hafiz Mahmood Azam, Aswad Ahmed
{"title":"Understanding, Oral Hygiene Practices, Behaviors and Myths to deal with Toothache in Rural Areas","authors":"Sarang Suresh Hotchandani, Priya Rani Harjani, Suneel Kumar Punjabi, Mowaffaq Abdullmomen Al Absi, Hafiz Mahmood Azam, Aswad Ahmed","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.575","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: In Pakistan, there is lack of awareness to maintain oral hygiene and cleaning of oral structures. The current study aims to unveil homemade remedies and self-care methods followed by a majority of the rural population to cure dental pain in Sindh, Pakistan. \u0000 METHODOLOGY: This cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted at dental OPD of the Secondary Health Care Facility of Sindh, Pakistan, by following a random sample selection approach.  Patients from both genders representing oro-dental problems of ages ≥ 5 year were included in the study. Patient’s clinical and demographic data was collected, and further descriptive data analysis was done by using Microsoft Excel 2016. \u0000RESULTS: A total of 1627 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria of the study. The highest number of cases (73.81%) were belonging to the age group 15-49 years, affirming that adults are at greater risk of developing toothache and dental pain. Surprisingly, about 78.97% patients had never visited any physician for seeking the clinical services. Similarly, 37.18 % of patients did not use any cleaning substance while 22.12 % patients preferred miswak for cleaning of their teeth. Only 2.95 % of patients visited dentists for proper care. \u0000CONCLUSION: Current research report concludes that from all the confirmed toothache cases, 22.13 % of patients sought care from general physicians in parallel with 22.34 % patients were preferring religious spells to manage their dental pain, which further multiplied the disease rate. However, general physicians at primary healthcare settings have limited knowledge and training in managing dental pain.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46230948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
A comparative study of postoperative airway management between traditional nasal packing and modified nasal airway after nasal surgeries 传统鼻填塞与改良鼻气道术后气道管理的比较研究
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.659
Muhammad Saleem, Baber Rafiq Khan, Sarwat Bibi, Humaira Ahmad, Muhammad Hamza Rana
{"title":"A comparative study of postoperative airway management between traditional nasal packing and modified nasal airway after nasal surgeries","authors":"Muhammad Saleem, Baber Rafiq Khan, Sarwat Bibi, Humaira Ahmad, Muhammad Hamza Rana","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.659","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: One of the most common challenging complications after nasal surgeries is maintaining airways. The study aimed to use an alternative technique instead of nasal packing in the immediate postoperative period undergoing different nasal surgery under general anesthesia regarding airway management. \u0000METHODOLOGY: An interventional study was conducted at Aziz Fatimah Trust Hospital, Faisalabad, from  March 20, 2018, to January 31, 2019. A total of 100 participants were enrolled in the study divided into two groups (A & B), 50 each. Group A patients were treated postoperatively with a modified nasal airway devised with a Nelton catheter and Group B patients with traditional nasal packing. The participants were assessed on different parameters which were statistically compared and analyzed. \u0000RESULTS: Group Descriptive statistics revealed that the Mean±SD of the age of group A and group B patients was 24.28±9.72 and 26.68±11.09 respectively, which had no significant difference between them {p-value (0.008)}. The postoperative parameters such as patient's comfort and sleep, surgeon satisfaction, ease of suction through Nelton catheter, and oxygen saturation were evaluated as significant variables in the evaluation of the study. p-value ≤0.05 and ≤0.005 were considered as significant and highly significant respectively. \u0000CONCLUSION: This modified nasal airway has proven to be easily replicable and reliable, and a cost-effective measure elucidated as a potential and exclusive outcome of the present study.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46240753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Association between artificially sweetened beverages consumption and changes in body mass index among children 儿童饮用人工加糖饮料与体重指数变化之间的关系
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.685
Muhammad Bilal Arshad, Muhammad Usman Sheikh, Muhammad Afzal, Aneela Amjad, Shahzeb Patoli, Muhammad Behzad Salahuddin
{"title":"Association between artificially sweetened beverages consumption and changes in body mass index among children","authors":"Muhammad Bilal Arshad, Muhammad Usman Sheikh, Muhammad Afzal, Aneela Amjad, Shahzeb Patoli, Muhammad Behzad Salahuddin","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.685","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Poor food quality and choices are a major concern in the modern life style and increased consumption of sweetened and artificially sweetened beverages have been implicated as contributing factors for obesity. The objective of this study is to determine the association between the consumption of artificially sweetened beverages and changes in body mass index among children. \u0000METHODOLOGY: Data on the consumption of artificially sweetened beverages consumption and BMI for 13,287 children was analyzed for exposure and outcome from Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). The association between frequency of ASB consumption and BMI was quantified using demographics and linear regression analysis. The linear regression analysis was done adjusting demographic, socioeconomic variables and confounding factors of frequency of physical activity. Regression analysis was conducted using survey weights to account for the complex sampling design. \u0000RESULTS:  Adjusted linear regression for demographical and socioeconomic variables showed that more frequent consumption of ASB was associated with a significant increase in BMI. As the frequency of ASB increased, BMI significantly increased by 0.69-1.06 units in categories (p<0.01). Regression analysis adjusted for frequency of physical activity also showed an increase of BMI by 0.36 units (p<0.01) with the highest frequency of ASB consumption. \u0000CONCLUSION: Higher consumption of artificially sweetened beverages causes an increase in BMI among UK children.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42126440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Trend analysis of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan 巴基斯坦新冠肺炎病例趋势分析
Journal of University Medical Dental College Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.655
Sumera Shareef, Shumiala Akhtar, Naima Tufail, Fiaz Ahmad, Muhammad Imran shakoor
{"title":"Trend analysis of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan","authors":"Sumera Shareef, Shumiala Akhtar, Naima Tufail, Fiaz Ahmad, Muhammad Imran shakoor","doi":"10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.37723/jumdc.v13i1.655","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Statistical models play a significant role in understanding the trend, level and trajectory of infectious diseases and provide the foundation to formulate effective policies and timely intervention, so that the morbidity and mortality due to these diseases can be declined. This study aimed to uncover the trend and proposing a forecasting model for daily expected outbreaks due to COVID-19 of fourth spike in Pakistan.  \u0000METHODOLOGY: This study is primarily based on a secondary data of COVID-19 daily confirmed outbreaks. The two-month (1st June to 31st July 2021) time series data is recorded and available from COVID-19 health advisory platform by Ministry of National Health Services Regulation and Coordination official website. Descriptive and time series analysis (ARIMA, exponential smoothing models) were applied. The analysis was carried out using R programming language. \u0000RESULTS: The highest (5026) and the lowest (663), COVID-19 confirm cases reported on 31 July 2021 and 21 June 2021 respective, whereas the average confirmed cases were 1830 [762-2898] per day. Four different time series models are executed namely ARIMA, Brown, Holt and Winter.  Among competitive models, ARIMA (0, 2, 1) is found to be an optimum forecasting model, selected by using auto ARIMA function with least root mean square error. A day ahead forecast is obtained under the selected ARIMA model and yielded that COVID-19 confirmed outbreaks is expected to increase about 3.1% per day. \u0000CONCLUSION: COVID-19 outbreaks are expected to rise in Pakistan and ARIMA (0, 2, 1) is an optimum forecasting model for daily COVID-19 outbreaks.","PeriodicalId":33713,"journal":{"name":"Journal of University Medical Dental College","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48270297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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