Communication in Biomathematical Sciences最新文献_第5页

Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia 登革热在低地和高地地区传播的比较:以印度尼西亚三宝垄和玛琅为例

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2019-06-17 DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.3

I. Fauzi, M. Fakhruddin, N. Nuraini, Karunia Putra Wijaya

{"title":"Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia","authors":"I. Fauzi, M. Fakhruddin, N. Nuraini, Karunia Putra Wijaya","doi":"10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.3","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue is a potentially lethal mosquito-borne disease, regarded as the most dangerous disease in the world. It is also a major health issue in tropical and subtropical countries. Environmental characteristics and sociocultural are factors which play a role in the spread of dengue. Different landscape structure such as lowland and highland areas are possible to give different infection rate on dengue transmission. Semarang and Malang are densely populated areas in Java, which are selected to be our study areas. A mathematical model (SIR-UV) is adapted to describe dengue transmission. Spiral dynamic optimization is applied to convert monthly data to weekly in Malang and estimate the infection rate that minimized the deviation between dengue data and simulation. This method produces a good fitting to the data. We compare the pattern of dengue cases from the simulation in both cities. Furthermore, we identify seasonal variations of the cases via Fourier series of the infection rate. We also investigate the correlation between humidity, infection rate, and dengue cases in Semarang and Malang. It reveals that humidity influences infection rate in 1-3 weeks later and the infection rate produces dengue cases in the next four weeks.","PeriodicalId":33129,"journal":{"name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48948991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Biological and Mechanical Transmission Models of Dengue Fever 登革热的生物和机械传播模型

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2019-05-17 DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.2

Laura Laura, Asep K. Supriatna, Mia Siti Khumaeroh, N. Anggriani

{"title":"Biological and Mechanical Transmission Models of Dengue Fever","authors":"Laura Laura, Asep K. Supriatna, Mia Siti Khumaeroh, N. Anggriani","doi":"10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue fever disease is caused by the dengue virus and transmitted primarily by the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. There is no vaccine available to prevent transmission of the disease until recently which makes 30% of the worlds population is at risk of the disease. The Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are known as multiplebiters during their blood meal periods. There are two possible transmissions of the dengue virus from the mosquitoes to humans. First, infectious mosquitoes may transmit the virus through the bite to a susceptible human after the virus experiencing the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) in the body of the mosquitoes. Second, the transmission happens directly through the transfer of virus carried in the saliva of a mosquito to a susceptible human at the second bite without waiting for the EIP. The later is known as a mechanical transmission, which occurs when a susceptible mosquito bites an infectious human and almost at the same time it transmits the virus to a healthy human. Only a few literature consider this kind of dengue transmission. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for dengue transmission by modifying the standard dengue transmission model with the presence of mechanical transmission. We show that the spreading behavior of the disease can be described by the basic reproduction number (BRN), R0. The disease will die out if R0 1. The analysis shows that the ratio of the BRN in the presence and absence of the mechanical transmission increases as the mechanical transmission rate increases. There is also a significant change in the outbreak intensity especially when the mechanical transmission rate is greater than the biological transmission rate.","PeriodicalId":33129,"journal":{"name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46211180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Dynamical Behavior of Secondary Dengue Infection Model 登革热继发感染模型的动力学行为

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2019-04-05 DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.1

C. J. Tay

{"title":"Dynamical Behavior of Secondary Dengue Infection Model","authors":"C. J. Tay","doi":"10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5614/CBMS.2019.2.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"With the increase of dengue cases in the last decades, efforts on controlling the dengue disease have been carried out. Dengvaxia, the first dengue vaccine developed by Sanofi Pasteur, was recommended by WHO for trial. The long-term safety follow-up indicates that the vaccine efficacy is higher in seropositive human population and there is an increase risk of severe dengue in vaccinated seronegative human. It is important to understand the dynamical behavior of dengue that includes both the seronegative and seropositive human population before performing vaccination. For such purpose, a secondary dengue infection model is developed and investigated in this paper. The basic reproduction number, Ro is derived and sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the most sensitive parameter in the model. The results indicate that Ro is the most sensitive to the ratio of mosquito to human, dengue transmission from human to mosquito, dengue transmission from mosquito to human and natural mortality of mosquito. It is also found that the ratio of seropositive to seronegative human population is 1.52 for a given set of parameter values at dengue endemic state. This would assist the authorities in deciding the proportion of seropositive and seronegative human population to be vaccinated. Numerical simulation results show that a decline in primary dengue infection is not associated with a decrease in secondary dengue infection. Therefore, the dengue control strategies should produce high efficacy in transmissibility reduction and ultimately reduce the DHF.","PeriodicalId":33129,"journal":{"name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47613502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Modeling CD4+ T cells and CTL response in HIV-1 infection with antiretroviral therapy 用抗逆转录病毒疗法模拟HIV-1感染中CD4+T细胞和CTL反应

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-28 DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2018.1.2.3

Sutimin Sutimin, S. Sunarsih, R. H. Tjahjana

引用次数: 2

Comparison of the differential transformation method and non standard finite difference scheme for solving plant disease mathematical model 求解植物病害数学模型的微分变换法和非标准有限差分格式的比较

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-28 DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2018.1.2.4

M. Z. Ndii, N. Anggriani, Asep K. Supriatna

引用次数: 5

A new modified logistic growth model for empirical use 一种新的修正的logistic增长模型

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2018-12-28 DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2018.1.2.5

Windarto Windarto, Eridani Eridani, U. D. Purwati

引用次数: 6

A Dynamical Model of ’Invisible Wall’ in Mosquito Control 蚊子控制中“隐形墙”的动力学模型

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2018-11-21 DOI: 10.5614/CBMS.2018.1.2.2

Mia Siti Khumaeroh, E. Soewono, N. Nuraini

{"title":"A Dynamical Model of ’Invisible Wall’ in Mosquito Control","authors":"Mia Siti Khumaeroh, E. Soewono, N. Nuraini","doi":"10.5614/CBMS.2018.1.2.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5614/CBMS.2018.1.2.2","url":null,"abstract":"A concept of an ’invisible wall’ is used here as a control mechanism to separate the human population from mosquitoes in the hope that mosquitoes gradually change their preference to other blood resources. Although mosquitoes carry inherent traits in host preference, in a situation in which regular blood resource is less available, and there are abundant other blood resources, mosquitoes may adapt to the existing new blood resource. Here we construct a model of mosquitoes preference alteration involving anthropophilic, opportunistic, and zoophilic, based on the application of repellent clothing usage and the effects of fumigation. The coexistence equilibrium is shown to be stable when the rate of mosquito ovulation, which is successfully hatching into larvae, is greater than the total of mosquito natural death rate and mosquito death rate due to fumigation. Numerical simulation is performed after the reduction of unobservable parameters is done with Human Blood Index (HBI) data. Global sensitivity analysis is then performed to determine the parameters that provide the dominant alteration effect on the mosquito population. The simulation results show that a proper selection of the fumigation rate and repellent clothing rate should be carefully done in order to reduce the mosquito population as well as to increase the zoophilic ratio.","PeriodicalId":33129,"journal":{"name":"Communication in Biomathematical Sciences","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48756561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

A multiscale approach for spatially inhomogeneous disease dynamics 空间非均匀疾病动力学的多尺度方法

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2016-02-18 DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2018.1.2.1

M. Schmidtchen, O. Tse, Stephan Wackerle

引用次数: 5