International Econometric Review最新文献_第3页

Using Numbers to Persuade: Hidden Rhetoric of Statistics 用数字说服:统计的隐藏修辞

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.747554

Sıdıka Başçı, Nadia Hassan

{"title":"Using Numbers to Persuade: Hidden Rhetoric of Statistics","authors":"Sıdıka Başçı, Nadia Hassan","doi":"10.33818/ier.747554","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.747554","url":null,"abstract":"Philosophy of current knowledge distinguishes facts from values. It maintains that facts are objective, indisputable, universally verifiable and do not require to persuade. Since rhetoric is persuasion it is assumed to be deceptive and overlook reality. Therefore, statistics in its current form disregards rhetoric and emphasizes only numbers. It ignores meanings and interpretation of numbers that involve subjectivity and value judgements. In real world, numbers and values are entangled in a way that it becomes impossible to avoid subjectivity. So, it is used with an appearance of objectivity. We illustrate how apparently objective statistics conceal subjective choices. Most of real-world experiences cannot be reduced to numbers, but scientific approach compels us to measure everything. In the attempt to measure the unmeasurables like trust, intelligence and wealth etc.it is inevitable make subjective choices. There is no objective way to reduce multiple measures into one. In the field of economics values are involved even in seemingly indisputable numbers like GDP. It is value laden for the choice of factors, weights and their signs. Making comparisons on such measures without awareness have harmful implications for policy development. Moreover, it is also desirable to understand hidden values to avoid deception.","PeriodicalId":32692,"journal":{"name":"International Econometric Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48352141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

New Directions in Macroeceonomics 宏观经济学的新方向

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.747603

Sıdıka Başçı, A. Zaman

引用次数: 0

Models and Reality: How Did Models Divorced from Reality Become Epistemologically Acceptable? 模型与现实：脱离现实的模型是如何在认识论上被接受的？

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.748128

A. Zaman

引用次数: 3

Causality, Confounding, and Simpson’s Paradox 因果关系、困惑与辛普森悖论

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.33818/ier.687042

A. Zaman, Taseer Salahuddin

{"title":"Causality, Confounding, and Simpson’s Paradox","authors":"A. Zaman, Taseer Salahuddin","doi":"10.33818/ier.687042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.687042","url":null,"abstract":"Bitter fighting among Christian factions and immoral behavior among Church leaders led to a transition to secular thought in Europe (see Zaman (2018) for details). One of the consequences of rejection of religion was the rejection of all unobservables. Empiricists like David Hume rejected all knowledge which was not based on observations and logic. He famously stated that: ““If we take in our hand any volume; of divinity or school metaphysics, for instance; let us ask, Does it contain any abstract reasoning concerning quantity or number? No. Does it contain any experimental reasoning concerning matter of fact and existence? No. Commit it then to the flames: for it can contain nothing but sophistry and illusion.” David Hume further realized that causality was not observable. This means that it is observable that event Y happened after event X, but it is not observable that Y happened due to X. The underlying mechanisms which connect X to Y are not observable. Current Article discusses the impact of changing causal structures on relationships and results of econometric analysis. it shows that conventional econometric analysis is devoid of causal chains which makes it impossible to get realistic results.","PeriodicalId":32692,"journal":{"name":"International Econometric Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47508320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Demonetization and Its Effects on BSESENSEX and Some Sectoral Indices: An Exploratory Econometric Analysis 废钞运动及其对BSESENSEX和一些行业指数的影响:一个探索性的计量分析

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.33818/ier.473544

D. Mukhopadhyay, Nityananda Sarkar

{"title":"Demonetization and Its Effects on BSESENSEX and Some Sectoral Indices: An Exploratory Econometric Analysis","authors":"D. Mukhopadhyay, Nityananda Sarkar","doi":"10.33818/ier.473544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.473544","url":null,"abstract":"T his study has carried out somepreliminary time series analyses to examine the impacts of demonetization which was carried outin India on 8 November 2016, on the well-known Indian stock index, BSESENSEX,and four major sectoral indices viz., BSE BANKEX,BSE Auto, BSE Reality and BSE Smallcap,using daily level time series data covering the period 1January 2016 to 31May2017. Apart from examining the stationarity/nonstationarity property and existence of structural breaks after demonetizationin these series, the paper has also studied the trend behavior and returns models for both the pre- and post-demonetization periods. This study has found that while there is more than one break in all the five series at their level values, there is only one structural break after demonetization. It has also been found that the trend function for all the index series broadly gives support to this finding of one break after demonetization. Further, some changes have also been observed in the stationary models for the two sub-periods of pre- and post-demonetization for all but BSE Auto index. Finally, except for BSESENSEX to some extent, no change in the status of stationarity/nonstationarity in the pre- and post- demonetization periods has been found in the other series.","PeriodicalId":32692,"journal":{"name":"International Econometric Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44132796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Power Comparison of Autocorrelation Tests in Dynamic Models 动态模型中自相关检验的功率比较

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.33818/ier.447133

T. Islam, Erum Toor

引用次数: 4

Performance of Methods Determining Structural Break in Linear Regression Models 线性回归模型结构断裂判定方法的性能

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.33818/ier.450804

Zümre Özdemir Güler, M. A. Bakır

引用次数: 4

Learning from Errors While Forecasting Inflation: A Case for Intercept Correction 在预测通货膨胀时从错误中学习:一个截距修正的例子

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2019-04-05 DOI: 10.33818/IER.304468

M. Hanif, Jahanzeb Malik

{"title":"Learning from Errors While Forecasting Inflation: A Case for Intercept Correction","authors":"M. Hanif, Jahanzeb Malik","doi":"10.33818/IER.304468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33818/IER.304468","url":null,"abstract":"Structural changes are quite common in macroeconomic time series. Internal/external shock(s) may cause significant structural change in any economy. Simplest form of such change is observed as shift in constant of an underlying relationship between a pair of macroeconomic variables. Forecasting from such a model assuming no structural break is tantamount to ignoring the important aspects of underlying economy and mostly results in forecast failure. Intercept correction (adjustment for the realized forecast error) is a method for accommodating such ignored structural break(s). We use a simple model to forecast inflation (based upon single lag of money supply growth) for 25 countries and compare its performance with a) the same model with optimal intercept correction, b) the same model with half intercept correction, and c) a random walk model (with drift). Optimal intercept correction approach outperforms in forecasting next period inflation compared to one from a) the same model without intercept correction, b) the same model with half intercept correction, and c) random walk model. We also observe that higher correction is needed for countries with more volatile inflation.","PeriodicalId":32692,"journal":{"name":"International Econometric Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41595865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Regional Economic Convergence and Spatial Spillovers in Turkey 土耳其区域经济趋同与空间溢出效应

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2019-04-05 DOI: 10.33818/IER.448603

T. Doğan, Ahmet Kındap

引用次数: 6

The Commodity Futures Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Case of Oil and Oilseed Commodities in India 商品期货波动和宏观经济基本面——以印度石油和油籽商品为例

International Econometric Review Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.33818/IER.491326

Suranjana Joarder

{"title":"The Commodity Futures Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Case of Oil and Oilseed Commodities in India","authors":"Suranjana Joarder","doi":"10.33818/IER.491326","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33818/IER.491326","url":null,"abstract":"Food price inflation results in uncertainty in the food markets and reduces real income as food covers a relatively large share of the households' expenditures in the LDCs. As price of food commodities are primarily governed by the underlying demand and supply conditions, we have analyzed the association of futures price volatility with the underlying macroeconomic variables. A strong association of futures price volatility with the underlying macro variables will imply that futures market operates based on the implications of the macroeconomic policies and are not merely driven by speculative motive. The association between futures price and the macroeconomic variables will help in developing policies aimed at stabilizing food prices. For our study we have considered the five major oil and oilseed contracts traded on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange. We have considered the nearest three month contracts traded on the exchange. In our study we observe that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth rate have significant impact on futures price volatility. We have also found a significant relation between futures price volatility and inflation. These findings have important implications for commodity production decision making, commodity hedging and commodity price forecasting.","PeriodicalId":32692,"journal":{"name":"International Econometric Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45300241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0