Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament最新文献_第7页

Counterfactual thinking & nuclear risk in the digital age: The role of uncertainty, complexity, chance, and human psychology 反事实思维与数字时代的核风险:不确定性、复杂性、偶然性和人类心理的作用

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2102286

James Johnson

引用次数: 2

Humanizing the Victims: A Middle East Zone (MEZ) Free of Nuclear Weapons and the Historical Necessity of Including “Other Weapons of Mass Destruction” 使受害者人性化：中东无核武器区和纳入“其他大规模毁灭性武器”的历史必要性

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2138097

Z. Tong

{"title":"Humanizing the Victims: A Middle East Zone (MEZ) Free of Nuclear Weapons and the Historical Necessity of Including “Other Weapons of Mass Destruction”","authors":"Z. Tong","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2138097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2138097","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT With five nuclear-weapon-free-zones (NWFZ) in place, the Middle East Zone (MEZ), still undergoing negotiations, is the first NWFZ to include “other weapons of mass destruction” in its deliberations. This article seeks to examine the historical necessity of including other weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in the MEZ. It does so by first stressing the destructive and lingering consequences of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons against human populations and the environment. It then provides an overview of the concepts of NWFZs and zones free from other WMDs while stressing the importance of understanding the historical context surrounding these concepts. After establishing these concepts, the article discusses the historical necessity of including other WMDs in addition to nuclear weapons in NWFZ treaties by exploring case studies of the use of these weapons and their consequences. By presenting these case studies, the article demonstrates the necessity of including other WMDs by adding a human face to the consequences of not including other WMDs within the MEZ.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":"5 1","pages":"469 - 486"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43603361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strategic Risk Management in Southern Asia 南亚战略风险管理

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2136878

F. Khan

{"title":"Strategic Risk Management in Southern Asia","authors":"F. Khan","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2136878","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2136878","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Strategic stability at the China-India-Pakistan trijunction remains tenuous. The two dyads have endured conflicts over ideology, territorial disputes and power rivalry. Though drivers of conflict vary in each dyad, common aspirations and history of cooperative security agreements are worthy foundations for managing future strategic risks in Southern Asia. While each state in the strategic triangle faces nested security dilemmas, new sources of instabilities are compounding the strategic trilemma. Recent India-Pakistan (2019) and China-India (2020) military crises exposed the potential for multi-domain crisis escalation in future conflicts. Strategic risks increase either due to escalation dynamics in conflicts and/or inadvertence due to technical failures and incidents. This essay identifies three key strategic risks. First, faulty assessment of intentions and capabilities could lead to dangerous actions and counteractions. Second, nuclear-conventional entanglement of delivery systems may increase chances of blundering into accidental wars, as respective doctrines become murkier, communications become lesser, and military crises become more frequent. Third, fusion of accurate missiles systems with the emergent technologies is enabling cross-domain deterrence capabilities and providing decision-makers with multiple options to take greater risks during an evolving crisis. This article proposes that the three states consider new strategic risk-reduction measures through a series of multilateral and bilateral strategic dialogues at the Track-I and Track-II levels, and establish “strategic risk-reduction centers” customized to the Southern Asian strategic environment. These centers would function as central clearing house for all past and future agreements and act as nodal points for preventing misinterpretation or tragic incidents.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":"5 1","pages":"369 - 393"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45339210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Counterforce Dilemmas and the Risk of Nuclear War in East Asia 东亚反作用力困境与核战争风险

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-04-22 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2064153

Ian Bowers

{"title":"Counterforce Dilemmas and the Risk of Nuclear War in East Asia","authors":"Ian Bowers","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2064153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2064153","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The discovery of new Chinese nuclear missile silos, a seemingly escalating nuclear-conventional arms competition between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the announcement that Australia, in concert with the United States and the United Kingdom, is pursuing nuclear-powered attack submarines are events that collectively indicate a worsening security environment in East Asia. Using geostrategic, operational, and technological factors as the basis for analysis, this paper contextualizes these and other developments and assesses the potential for nuclear war in East Asia in general and on the Korean Peninsula in particular. The most dangerous threat to strategic stability is a counterforce dilemma where the conventional weapons of the United States, China, and regional East Asian actors may create strategic instability by their intentional or inadvertent entanglement or use to target the nuclear forces of another state, resulting in pursuit of more secure second-strike capability by the countries of the region, and forming the heart of conventional warfighting and deterrence strategies. The many different conflictual or competitive relationships across the region make arms control initiatives unlikely to succeed, but the maritime nature of the geostrategic environment and the lack of existential threat that the United States and China pose to each other may offer fewer natural pathways to the use of nuclear weapons for either China or the United States than there were for the adversaries in the Cold War.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":"5 1","pages":"6 - 23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47710466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Deliberate Employment of US Nuclear Weapons: Escalation Triggers on the Korean Peninsula 美国蓄意使用核武器:朝鲜半岛局势升级的导火索

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2062896

Daryl G. Press

{"title":"The Deliberate Employment of US Nuclear Weapons: Escalation Triggers on the Korean Peninsula","authors":"Daryl G. Press","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2062896","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2062896","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper focuses on the conditions under which the United States might use nuclear weapons during a war on the Korean Peninsula. It identifies several circumstances that might trigger such a decision, the purposes of a US nuclear strike, and the plausible targets. Attention is focused on the roles that nuclear weapons continue to play in US military operations and foreign policy strategy despite steps to reduce their salience since the end of the Cold War. I argue that the United States would only consider using nuclear weapons if (1) the mission being performed was of critical importance, (2) it could not be accomplished with sufficient certainty or speed with non-nuclear options, and (3) the use of nuclear munitions significantly increased the probability of success. This paper identifies a range of circumstances that could arise during a war in Korea that might satisfy all three criteria, and it identifies the pathways that are most likely to trigger US nuclear employment. Examining these conditions now can help US allies and other partners identify and resolve disagreements about nuclear employment, enhance deterrence against regional adversaries, and shed light on the logic driving important decisions about US nuclear force structure and modernization.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":"5 1","pages":"101 - 114"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43007561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Preface for J-PAND Supplement Issue: Project on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia (NU-NEA) J-PAND增刊前言：降低东北亚使用核武器风险项目（NU-NEA）

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-04-10 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2061767

D. V. von Hippel, P. Hayes, Shatabhisha Shetty, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Fumihiko Yoshida

{"title":"Preface for J-PAND Supplement Issue: Project on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia (NU-NEA)","authors":"D. V. von Hippel, P. Hayes, Shatabhisha Shetty, Tatsujiro Suzuki, Fumihiko Yoshida","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2061767","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2061767","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This supplement issue of Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament presents the papers commissioned in 2021 to support the Project on Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia (NU-NEA). The NU-NEA project was developed to study the risk contours and conflict terrain for war and nuclear escalation in and around the Korean peninsula. This study is being carried out in part by developing a set of plausible “use cases” for nuclear weapons in NEA, that is, cases in which a combination of nuclear weapons deployments, political, economic, or other circumstances in the region and/or internationally, and specific “triggering events” lead a state or non-state actor to detonate a nuclear weapon in the region (“first use”), followed by evolution of the nuclear conflict and its ultimate consequences. The commissioned papers that informed use case preparation were prepared by a group of authors from many nations and backgrounds, spanning topics from the history of the division of the ROK and DPRK to ROK military strategy, ballistic missile inventories and capabilities, counterforce issues, and many others. Nuclear use cases have been developed not to suggest probable outcomes, but to identify plausible outcomes so that policies can be devised and implemented to avoid any use of nuclear weapons, with the ultimate project goal being “let Nagasaki be the last”.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":"5 1","pages":"1 - 5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48234315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Systems that Might Be Implicated in Nuclear Use Involving the Korean Peninsula 可能涉及朝鲜半岛核使用的核武器和运载系统

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-04-10 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2055911

Matt Korda

{"title":"Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Systems that Might Be Implicated in Nuclear Use Involving the Korean Peninsula","authors":"Matt Korda","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2055911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2055911","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT It is highly unlikely that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) would intentionally launch nuclear weapons in the absence of an existential threat to the continued survival of the state and its political leadership. However, in the event of such a scenario – for example, the prospect of an imminent US invasion or regime change operation – it is possible that the DPRK would use some of its estimated 20 assembled nuclear weapons in an attempt to forestall US action. In that case, the DPRK could use its short- and medium-range ballistic missiles early in a conflict to strike political and military targets in the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan, and it could potentially use its intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles to strike US military targets on Guam and Hawaii. The DPRK could also hold some nuclear weapons in reserve to strike the continental United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles, in the event that its initial nuclear strikes did not prevent an existentially threatening conventional invasion of the DPRK. First nuclear strikes by the United States (and its allies), or by China or Russia, may also be unlikely in the absence of an overwhelming provocation, but the nuclear weapons and launch systems available to these states are also considered.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":"5 1","pages":"115 - 131"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43612866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Potential Use of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons in a Korean Context 朝鲜可能使用低当量核武器

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-04-05 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2057672

Eva. Lisowski

引用次数: 1

Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait 走向不稳定:台湾海峡核常规动力的转变

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2055912

Sheryn Lee

{"title":"Towards Instability: The Shifting Nuclear-Conventional Dynamics In the Taiwan Strait","authors":"Sheryn Lee","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2055912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2055912","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT China’s improving nuclear arsenal, the United States’ deteriorating “strategic ambiguity” policy, and Taiwan’s increasing identification as independent polity raises the prospect of conflict over Taiwan. But the use of nuclear weapons in the Taiwan Straits would happen only under extreme circumstances. This paper argues Beijing is increasing its use of gray-zone tactics with conventional and non-military means below the level of nuclear provocation to tip the cross-straits military balance in its favor. This report first examines China’s aim to achieve unification with Taiwan via its use of threat and use of force in both the nuclear and conventional domains through a close examination of the three historical cross-strait crises. Second, it outlines the geostrategic and geopolitical rationale for continued American support for Taiwan in an era of United States-China competition. Lastly, it explores the role of Taiwan’s consolidating democracy and how Taipei responds to Beijing’s coercion. The report concludes with consideration of how the Taiwan Straits case may affect the possibility of nuclear weapons use in Northeast Asia, including in Japan and on the Korean peninsula.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":"5 1","pages":"154 - 166"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46541106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The Role of Missile Defense in North-East Asia 导弹防御在东北亚的作用

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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament Pub Date : 2022-03-27 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2055355

D. Wright

引用次数: 0