Counterfactual thinking & nuclear risk in the digital age: The role of uncertainty, complexity, chance, and human psychology

ABSTRACT Will emerging technology increase the possibility of nuclear war? Given the multitude of ways emerging technology intersects with nuclear weapons, critical thinking about an imagined future that goes beyond net assessment, myopic mirror-imaging, and extrapolation of present trends should be a core task of policymakers. This article builds on the notion of “future counterfactuals” to construct imaginative yet realistic scenarios to consider the future possibility of a nuclear exchange. It highlights the critical role counterfactual scenarios can play in challenging conventional wisdom about nuclear weapons, risk analysis, war-fighting, and linear thinking. In emphasizing the role of uncertainty, cognitive bias, and fundamental uncertainty in world politics, the article also contributes to the literature about the risk of inadvertent and accidental nuclear war.