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Débat sur les perspectives économiques à court terme du 16 octobre 2003 2003年10月16日关于短期经济前景的辩论
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2003-10-01 DOI: 10.3917/REOF.087.0195
Joachim Volz, Anton Brender, J. Fitoussi, Hélène Baudchon, V. Chauvin, Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau
{"title":"Débat sur les perspectives économiques à court terme du 16 octobre 2003","authors":"Joachim Volz, Anton Brender, J. Fitoussi, Hélène Baudchon, V. Chauvin, Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau","doi":"10.3917/REOF.087.0195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REOF.087.0195","url":null,"abstract":"Les previsions occupent une place particuliere dans le debat public en economie. Elles sont generalement considerees comme des predictions, qualifiees frequemment d’optimistes ou de pessimistes, comme si elles dependaient de l’humeur des equipes qui les realisent. Certes, en un sens, la prevision est un art tant elle depend des signes precurseurs que nous livre le present, de l’interpretation des evolutions en cours, de la capacite des economistes de selectionner les informations pertinentes parmi celles, multiples, dont l’interet n’est qu’anecdotique. Mais elle est surtout une science puisqu’elle consiste a deduire des informations dont on dispose sur le present une vision de l’avenir. Elle ne peut etre formulee en dehors d’un cadre general d’interpretation, c’est-a-dire d’une theorie qui met en relation les informations que l’on privilegie et les variables que l’on cherche a prevoir (...).","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128949501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Promouvoir la croissance en Europe: vérités et mystifications. Critique du rapport d'A. Sapir présenté à la Commission européenne en juillet 2003: 'An Agenda for a Growing Europe. Making the EU Economic System Deliver' 促进欧洲增长:真相与神秘。对a报告的批评。2003年7月，萨皮尔向欧盟委员会提交了《增长中的欧洲议程》。让欧盟经济体系发挥作用
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2003-10-01 DOI: 10.3917/REOF.087.0203
J. Gaffard
{"title":"Promouvoir la croissance en Europe: vérités et mystifications. Critique du rapport d'A. Sapir présenté à la Commission européenne en juillet 2003: 'An Agenda for a Growing Europe. Making the EU Economic System Deliver'","authors":"J. Gaffard","doi":"10.3917/REOF.087.0203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REOF.087.0203","url":null,"abstract":"Le rapport pour la Commission europeenne \" An Agenda for a Growing Europe, Making the EU Economic System Deliver \" propose un diagnostic de la situation europeenne qui repose sur la distinction entre deux regimes technologiques, l'un fonde sur l'imitation, l'autre sur l'innovation. L'un et l'autre sont censes requerir des institutions differentes pour permettre une croissance forte et stable. Le premier caracteriserait des pays en phase de rattrapage et exigerait des arrangements de long terme entre les differents acteurs. Le second caracteriserait des pays a la frontiere du developpement technologique et exigerait des institutions et des regles garantissant concurrence, flexibilite et selection. Dans ce contexte, le blocage institutionnel dont souffrirait la plupart des pays de l'Union europeenne aurait une double consequence. Il expliquerait leur faible croissance et leur taux de chomage eleve. Il expliquerait, en outre, les conflits entre objectifs de croissance, de stabilite et de cohesion. Seules des reformes structurelles des marches et du budget europeen et la constitution d'autorites independantes en charge, chacune, d'un objectif unique, permettraient de constituer le systeme requis, fonde sur une de-integration des firmes, une plus grande mobilite dans et entre les firmes, une plus grande flexibilite des marches de travail, un financement plus important par actions, un investissement plus eleve en R&D et en education (...).","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130574591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 144
Inflation divergence and public deficits in a monetary union 货币联盟中的通胀分歧和公共赤字
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2003-07-01 DOI: 10.4324/9780203934531.ch9
J. Creel, J. L. Cacheux
{"title":"Inflation divergence and public deficits in a monetary union","authors":"J. Creel, J. L. Cacheux","doi":"10.4324/9780203934531.ch9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203934531.ch9","url":null,"abstract":"We reconsider the link between domestic public debts and average and domestic inflation rates in a monetary union, using a modified version of a model by B-V (2002). It is thus possible to show that the causation between the inflation dynamics and the public finances might go from the former to the latter. We are thus able to tackle the issue of persistently divergent inflation rates within the euro area. We also demonstrate that the homogeneous fiscal rules defined in the Stability and Growth Pact are ill-suited and might even be counterproductive. This conclusion is all the more true as the EU is on the eve of enlargement towards the CEECs: our results show that imposing homogeneous fiscal rules to the CEECs may prove disruptive.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124310369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Débat sur les perspectives à court terme du 3 Avril 2002 2002年4月3日关于短期前景的辩论
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2002-04-01 DOI: 10.3917/REOF.081.0191
P. Blanqué, G. Cette, J. Fitoussi, Hélène Baudchon, Odile Chagny, Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau
{"title":"Débat sur les perspectives à court terme du 3 Avril 2002","authors":"P. Blanqué, G. Cette, J. Fitoussi, Hélène Baudchon, Odile Chagny, Éric Heyer, Xavier Timbeau","doi":"10.3917/REOF.081.0191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REOF.081.0191","url":null,"abstract":"Les previsions occupent une place particuliere dans le debat public en economie. Elles sont generalement considerees comme des predictions, qualifiees frequemment d’optimistes ou de pessimistes, comme si elles dependaient de l’humeur des equipes qui les realisent. Certes, en un sens, la prevision est un art tant elle depend des signes precurseurs que nous livre le present, de l’interpretation des evolutions en cours, de la capacite des economistes de selectionner les informations pertinentes parmi celles, multiples, dont l’interet n’est qu’anecdotique. Mais elle est surtout une science puisqu’elle consiste a deduire des informations dont on dispose sur le present une vision de l’avenir. Elle ne peut etre formulee en dehors d’un cadre general d’interpretation, c’est-a-dire d’une theorie qui met en relation les informations que l’on privilegie et les variables que l’on cherche a prevoir (...).","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126583161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tigres et Dragons : attention au yen ! 老虎和龙:请注意!
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2002-04-01 DOI: 10.3917/REOF.081.0081
Éric Heyer
{"title":"Tigres et Dragons : attention au yen !","authors":"Éric Heyer","doi":"10.3917/REOF.081.0081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REOF.081.0081","url":null,"abstract":"L'Asie en developpement a connu, comme le reste du monde, un ralentissement economique en 2001. Seule la Chine, ou la demande interieure a compense le ralentissement des exportations, a preserve et maintient un taux de croissance superieur a 7 % (tableau 1) (...).","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"14 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116907620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Fragility, Business Creation and Job Destruction 金融脆弱性、商业创造和就业破坏
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2002-03-01 DOI: 10.3917/REL.681.0185
Étienne Wasmer, P. Weil
{"title":"Financial Fragility, Business Creation and Job Destruction","authors":"Étienne Wasmer, P. Weil","doi":"10.3917/REL.681.0185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REL.681.0185","url":null,"abstract":"We build a model of endogenous destruction with credit and labor market imperfections, represented by a matching process between financiers and entrepreneurs on one hand, and entrepreneurs and workers on the other hand. Business creation, credit opening and job destruction represent three active margins of the model. Financial imperfections lead to financial fragility. This implies the existence of a forth latent margin which may be activated in the case of repudiation of financial contracts. This paradigm is applied to the recent development of the U.S. economy. An empirical test in panel of OECD countries further suggests the importance of venture capital for macroeconomic variables.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127094054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Bank, the States, and the Market: an Austro-Hungarian Tale for Euroland, 1867-1914 银行、国家和市场:奥匈帝国的欧洲故事，1867-1914
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2001-03-26 DOI: 10.4324/9780203417911-13
Marc Flandreau
{"title":"The Bank, the States, and the Market: an Austro-Hungarian Tale for Euroland, 1867-1914","authors":"Marc Flandreau","doi":"10.4324/9780203417911-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203417911-13","url":null,"abstract":"In 1867, the \"Compromise\" between Austria and Hungary laid the foundation of a single currency system with a common central bank. As in today's euroland, each part of the monarchy remained sovereign in fiscal matters. Moreover, the borrowing needs of both parts of the monarchy were quite large, since Austria and Hungary sought to promote their own economic development through government spending. Yet no fiscal stability pact existed: the two countries could run deficits to the extent of the public's willingness to lend to them. They were thus only subjected to the discipline of the capital market. This paper documents the record of the Austro-Hungarian monetary union and shows how this discipline led to a process of increased power of the central bank.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131203602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 20
Les effets de la coordination et de la coopération internationales sur le déclenchement des crises de change spéculatives 国际协调与合作对引发投机性汇率危机的影响
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2001-03-01 DOI: 10.3406/RECO.2001.410312
Olivier Loisel, Philippe Martin
{"title":"Les effets de la coordination et de la coopération internationales sur le déclenchement des crises de change spéculatives","authors":"Olivier Loisel, Philippe Martin","doi":"10.3406/RECO.2001.410312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3406/RECO.2001.410312","url":null,"abstract":"Nous analysons les effets de la coordination et de la cooperation internationales sur le declenchement et ta contagion des crises de change, dans le cadre d'un modele a trois pays bâti sur l'approche « clause de sortie » des systemes de changes fixes. Nous montrons que la coordination reduit la possibilite d'anticipations auto-realisatrices de crises speculatives simultanees dans la region et restreint l'ensemble des equilibres multiples, mais qu'elle peut renforcer le risque de contagion. L'effet de la cooperation est qualitativement semblable a celui de la coordination, mais quantitativement plus important encore. Toutefois, pour etre credible vis-a-vis des agents prives, la cooperation requiert la mise en place d'un lourd dispositif de commitment, par exemple sous la forme d'une organisation internationale chargee de faire respecter l'accord.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127974398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Politique de santé dans un modèle macroéconomique 宏观经济模型中的卫生政策
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2001-03-01 DOI: 10.4000/economiepublique.589
B. Ventelou, V. Touzé
{"title":"Politique de santé dans un modèle macroéconomique","authors":"B. Ventelou, V. Touzé","doi":"10.4000/economiepublique.589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4000/economiepublique.589","url":null,"abstract":"Cet article propose une approche theorique de l'incidence des politiques de sante (contingentement, ticket moderateur, controle qualitatif) ; la voie envisagee est une analyse micro-macroeconomique. Le comportement de l'offre medicale est construit sur un choix d'allocation du temps de travail entre deux activites : l'une utile et l'autre inutile. Ce fondement microeconomique des arbitrages medicaux est ensuite integre dans un modele de croissance avec accumulation de capital ; les conclusions concernent alors les evolutions des depenses de sante, du bien-etre et de l'accumulation de patrimoine au regard de differents plans de politique de sante.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"156 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124362826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Equilibre, coordination et cycle 平衡、协调、循环
Sciences Po publications Pub Date : 2000-09-01 DOI: 10.3406/RECO.2000.410583
J. Gaffard
{"title":"Equilibre, coordination et cycle","authors":"J. Gaffard","doi":"10.3406/RECO.2000.410583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3406/RECO.2000.410583","url":null,"abstract":"Les theories du cycle d'affaires, telles qu'elles emergent au debut des annees 1950, mettent l'accent sur les problemes de coordination, et plus precisement sur les effets des comportements d'investissement hors de l'equilibre. Les nouvelles theories, qui se sont developpees a partir des annees 1970, sont basees sur la methode de l'equilibre et mettent l'accent sur les proprietes de la fonction d'utilite, de la fonction de production ou de la structure d'information ex ante. Elles constituent un veritable defi pour les « vieilles » theories, mais elles ne les rendent pas obsoletes, dans la mesure ou elles font defaut sur un point crucial qui est d'expliquer la nature d'une dynamique multi-phases (ou multi-regimes).","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115429300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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