PSN: Econometrics最新文献

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Least Squares Model Averaging: Some Further Results 最小二乘模型平均:一些进一步的结果
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 2008-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3481542
Xinyu Zhang, Alan T. K. Wan, Guohua Zou
{"title":"Least Squares Model Averaging: Some Further Results","authors":"Xinyu Zhang, Alan T. K. Wan, Guohua Zou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3481542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3481542","url":null,"abstract":"This note is in response to a recent paper by Hansen (2007, Econometrica) who proposed an optimal model average estimator with weights selected by minimizing a Mallows criterion. The main contribution of Hansen’s paper is a demonstration that the Mallows criterion is asymptotically equivalent to the squared error, so the model average estimator that minimizes the Mallows criterion also minimizes the squared error in large samples. We are concerned with two assumptions that accompany Hansen’s approach. First is the assumption that the approximating models are strictly nested in a way that depends on the ordering of regressors. Often there is no clear basis for the ordering and the approach does not permit non-nested models which are more realistic in a practical sense. Second, for the optimality result to hold the model weights are required to lie within a special discrete set. In fact, Hansen (2007) noted both difficulties and called for extensions of the proof techniques. We provide an alternative proof which shows that the result on the optimality of the Mallows criterion in fact holds for continuous model weights and under a non-nested set-up that allows any linear combination of regressors in the approximating models that make up the model average estimator. These are important extensions and our results provide a stronger theoretical basis for the use of the Mallows criterion in model averaging by strengthening existing findings.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128152303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An Empirical Study of Exposure at Default 违约风险敞口实证研究
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 2008-06-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1149407
Michael Jacobs
{"title":"An Empirical Study of Exposure at Default","authors":"Michael Jacobs","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1149407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1149407","url":null,"abstract":"In this study we empirically investigate the determinants of and build a predictive econometric model for exposure at default (EAD) using a sample of Moody’s rated defaulted firms having revolving credits. We extend prior empirical work by considering alternative determinants of EAD risk, in addition to the traditional factors (e.g., credit rating.) Various measures of EAD risk are derived and compared. We build a multiple regression model in the generalized linear class and examine the comparative rank ordering and predictive accuracy properties of these. We find weak evidence of counter-cyclicality in EAD. While we find EAD risk to decrease with default risk, utilization has the strongest inverse relation. We also find EAD risk reduced for greater leverage, liquidity, more debt cushion; and increased for greater company size, higher collateral rank or more bank debt in the capital structure of the defaulted obligor. The models are validated rigorously through resampling experiment in a rolling out-of-time and sample experiment. In addition to the credit risk management implications of this study (the parameterization of pricing and portfolio management models), there is use in quantifying EAD risk for banks qualifying for the Advanced IRB approach in the regulatory framework of the Basel II accord.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"142 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133412490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 38
Monotonicity and Candidate Stable Voting Correspondences 单调性与候选稳定投票对应
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 2007-12-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.861544
Yuelan Chen
{"title":"Monotonicity and Candidate Stable Voting Correspondences","authors":"Yuelan Chen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.861544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.861544","url":null,"abstract":"Dutta, Jackson and Le Breton (Econometrica, 2001) initiates the study of strategic candidacy. A voting procedure satisfies candidate stability if no candidate has incentives to withdraw her candidacy in order to manipulate the voting outcome in her favor. Dutta et al. (2001) shows that a single valued voting procedure satisfying candidate stability and unanimity must be dictatorial if voters have strict preferences and candidates cannot vote. Eraslan and McLennan (JET, 2004) extends this result to a framework that allows weak preferences and multi-valued voting procedures (voting correspondences). They obtain the existence of a serial dictatorship under a stronger version of candidate stability. We show that voting correspondences satisfying strong candidate stability and unanimity are monotonic, that is, if a winning candidate's position is weakly improved in all voters' preference rankings, then the candidate remains a winner. Monotonicity provides a direct link between the standard dictatorship in Dutta et al. (2001) and the serial dictatorship in Eraslan and McLennan (2004). Using this particular property of voting correspondences, we provide an alternative proof to Eraslan and McLennan's result.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"122 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127535089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Determining Innocence in Innocent-Spouse Court Cases Using Logit/Probit Analysis 利用Logit/Probit分析法判定配偶无罪
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/S1058-7497(06)17006-4
G. E. Whittenburg, I. Horowitz, William A. Raabe
{"title":"Determining Innocence in Innocent-Spouse Court Cases Using Logit/Probit Analysis","authors":"G. E. Whittenburg, I. Horowitz, William A. Raabe","doi":"10.1016/S1058-7497(06)17006-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S1058-7497(06)17006-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117195552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Bilateral Matching with Latin Squares 拉丁方格的双边匹配
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 2007-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2541967
C. Aliprantis, Gabriele Camera, D. Puzzello
{"title":"Bilateral Matching with Latin Squares","authors":"C. Aliprantis, Gabriele Camera, D. Puzzello","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2541967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2541967","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a general procedure to construct pairwise meeting processes characterized by two features. First, in each period the process maximizes the number of matches in the population. Second, over time agents meet everybody else exactly once. We call this type of meetings “absolute strangers.” Our methodological contribution to economics is to offer a simple procedure to construct a type of decentralized trading environments usually employed in both theoretical and experimental economics. In particular, we demonstrate how to make use of the mathematics of Latin Squares to enrich the modeling of matching economies.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124816780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Size and Power of Diagnostic Tests for Asymmetric Garch-Type Models 非对称garch型模型诊断检验的大小和功效
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 2006-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2462877
P. Jayasinghe, A. Tsui
{"title":"Size and Power of Diagnostic Tests for Asymmetric Garch-Type Models","authors":"P. Jayasinghe, A. Tsui","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2462877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2462877","url":null,"abstract":"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models have been successively used to capture the conditional volatility of macroeconomic and financial time series in the past two decades. However, few diagnostic tests are specifically devised to check the adequacy of symmetric multivariate GARCH specifications. Moreover, most practitioners resort to the popular Ljung-Box test indiscriminately, even though the appropriateness of such a test is questionable. In this paper, we investigate the empirical size and power of four diagnostic tests: the Ling-Li test, Ljung-Box test, the Box-Pierce test modified by Tse and Tsui, and the runs test, respectively. We use Monte Carlo simulation experiments over a wide combination of data generating processes and estimation models of bivariate GARCH-type asymmetric models. In the absence of analytically derived diagnostic tests, our simulation results could serve as guidelines for empirical researchers and practitioners in selecting the appropriate diagnostic tests for multivariate asymmetric GARCH models.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129778592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Estimation of Multinomial Probit Models: A New Calibration Algorithm 多项式概率模型的估计:一种新的校正算法
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 1989-11-01 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.23.4.253
W. Kamakura
{"title":"The Estimation of Multinomial Probit Models: A New Calibration Algorithm","authors":"W. Kamakura","doi":"10.1287/trsc.23.4.253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.23.4.253","url":null,"abstract":"This study proposes the estimation of Multinomial Probit models using Mendell-Elston's approximation to the cumulative multivariate normal for the computation of choice probabilities. The accuracy of this numerical approximation in computing probabilities is compared with other procedures used in existing calibration programs. Finally, the proposed estimation procedure is tested on simulated choice data.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"187 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1989-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132568075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 40
Catastrophic Risk 灾难性的风险
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1375632
G. Chichilnisky
{"title":"Catastrophic Risk","authors":"G. Chichilnisky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1375632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1375632","url":null,"abstract":"Global environmental risks such as climate change and rising sea levels are low-probability events with widespread and possibly irreversible consequences. These are fundamentally new risks which are not well understood. Learning through experimentation is out of the question because these risks are effectively irreversible in a time-scale that matters. As a result, classical theories that rely on expected utility (see Utility theory) may not work well because they underestimate low-probability events, as discussed below. The need to make global environmental decisions calls tor a systematic analysis of choices involving low-probability events with major irreversible consequences. The topic is of current importance but has been neglected in the literature of choice under uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122705722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
V-Dem Methodology V6 V-Dem方法
PSN: Econometrics Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2951040
M. Coppedge, J. Gerring, Staffan I. Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jan Teorell, Frida Andersson, Kyle L. Marquardt, Valeriya Mechkova, Farhad Miri, Daniel Pemstein, Josefine Pernes, N. Stepanova, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang
{"title":"V-Dem Methodology V6","authors":"M. Coppedge, J. Gerring, Staffan I. Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jan Teorell, Frida Andersson, Kyle L. Marquardt, Valeriya Mechkova, Farhad Miri, Daniel Pemstein, Josefine Pernes, N. Stepanova, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2951040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2951040","url":null,"abstract":"Part I sets forth the V-Dem conceptual scheme. Part II discusses the process of data collection. Part III describes the measurement model along with efforts to identify and correct errors.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127437864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 22
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