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How Well Does the Cleveland Fed’s Systemic Risk Indicator Predict Stress? 克利夫兰联邦储备银行的系统性风险指标预测压力的效果如何?
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-12-02 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202028
Ben R. Craig
{"title":"How Well Does the Cleveland Fed’s Systemic Risk Indicator Predict Stress?","authors":"Ben R. Craig","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202028","url":null,"abstract":"A number of financial stress measures were developed after the financial crisis of 2007–2009 in the hope that they could provide regulators with advance warning of conditions that might warrant a corrective response. The Cleveland Fed’s systemic risk indicator is one such measure. This Commentary provides a review of the SRI’s performance from 2001 to 2020 and finds that it has performed well, providing a reliable, valid, and timely signal of elevated levels of financial system stress.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124238679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Forward Guidance during the Pandemic: Has It Changed the Public’s Expectations? 大流行期间的前瞻指导:它改变了公众的期望吗?
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202027
Wesley Janson, Chengcheng Jia
{"title":"Forward Guidance during the Pandemic: Has It Changed the Public’s Expectations?","authors":"Wesley Janson, Chengcheng Jia","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202027","url":null,"abstract":"In responding to the COVID-19 crisis, the Federal Reserve has both lowered the federal funds rate and provided forward guidance. We study whether the forward guidance given with the April and June 2020 FOMC meetings altered the public’s expectations of future policy rates, GDP growth, and inflation. We find that forward guidance was effective in altering the public’s expectations about future policy rates if it was accompanied by an SEP but not expectations about economic fundamentals. We suggest that the difference might be explained by FOMC statements being interpretable in two different ways and the public not having a dominant view on which interpretation was intended.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133670911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Short-Time Compensation: An Alternative to Layoffs during COVID-19 短期薪酬:COVID-19期间裁员的替代方案
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-10-22 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202026
Pawel M. Krolikowski, Anna Weixel
{"title":"Short-Time Compensation: An Alternative to Layoffs during COVID-19","authors":"Pawel M. Krolikowski, Anna Weixel","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202026","url":null,"abstract":"We discuss the costs and benefits of short-time compensation (STC), an unemployment insurance program that allows workers with temporarily reduced hours to receive some unemployment insurance benefits. We describe the provisions for STC in the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012 and the 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and report the utilization of STC before and after these acts. The number of states with STC programs has remained unchanged at 27 since the beginning of the pandemic, but STC utilization has recently risen to unprecedented levels, driven largely by increases in Michigan and Washington. However, these increases are small relative to increases in Germany’s popular Kurzarbeit program, suggesting that the United States’ STC program may still have scope for expansion.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131310618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Subprime May Not Have Caused the 2000s Housing Crisis: Evidence from Cleveland, Ohio 来自俄亥俄州克利夫兰的证据表明，次级抵押贷款可能不是导致2000年住房危机的原因
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202025
L. Loewenstein
{"title":"Subprime May Not Have Caused the 2000s Housing Crisis: Evidence from Cleveland, Ohio","authors":"L. Loewenstein","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202025","url":null,"abstract":"During the 2000s housing bust, Cleveland’s Slavic Village was dubbed “ground zero of the foreclosure crisis” by the national media. Despite this, during the preceding housing boom Cleveland had stable house price growth and relatively low mortgage debt growth, a stark contrast to circumstances in areas such as California that had exceptionally high house price and mortgage debt growth. What explains the relatively minor housing boom and perceived sharp downturn in Cleveland? In this Commentary I show that while subprime debt was a prominent source of debt in Cleveland and especially in its Slavic Village neighborhood during the 2000s, it is difficult to peg subprime debt as playing a causal role in the subsequent foreclosure crisis.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127749887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why Are Headline PCE and Median PCE Inflations So Far Apart? 为什么整体个人消费支出和中位数个人消费支出通胀差距如此之大?
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-10-02 DOI: 10.26509/FRBC-EC-202024
Daniel R. Carroll, Ross Cohen-Kristiansen
{"title":"Why Are Headline PCE and Median PCE Inflations So Far Apart?","authors":"Daniel R. Carroll, Ross Cohen-Kristiansen","doi":"10.26509/FRBC-EC-202024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/FRBC-EC-202024","url":null,"abstract":"Mean (or headline) PCE inflation has typically fallen below median PCE inflation, and since 2012 the difference has been large. To understand the reasons for this trend, we investigate which components of the headline measure are contributing to the difference. We find that energy components, which frequently undergo wide price swings, and electronics, which have been steadily decreasing in price for decades, explain most of the difference between the two inflation measures. We argue that the outsized impacts of such components on headline PCE inflation reinforce the need for policymakers","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"51 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128232974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks 用网络改进流行病建模
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-09-02 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202023
Ben R. Craig, Thomas M. Phelan, Jan-Peter Siedlarek, J. Steinberg
{"title":"Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks","authors":"Ben R. Craig, Thomas M. Phelan, Jan-Peter Siedlarek, J. Steinberg","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202023","url":null,"abstract":"Many of the models used to track, forecast, and inform the response to epidemics such as COVID-19 assume that everyone has an equal chance of encountering those who are infected with a disease. But this assumption does not reflect the fact that individuals interact mostly within much narrower groups. We argue that incorporating a network perspective, which accounts for patterns of real-world interactions, into epidemiological models provides useful insights into the spread of infectious diseases.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129315223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Financial Stability: Risks, Resilience, and Policy 金融稳定:风险、弹性和政策
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-08-06 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202022
Joseph G. Haubrich
{"title":"Financial Stability: Risks, Resilience, and Policy","authors":"Joseph G. Haubrich","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202022","url":null,"abstract":"As the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout continue, policymakers keep a watchful eye on the stability of the financial system. Having learned many lessons from the financial crisis of 2007–2009, they may again turn to that crisis for insights into potential vulnerabilities emerging in the financial sector and ways to make financial markets and institutions more resilient to shocks. At a recent conference on financial stability, 12 papers and two keynotes explored this ground. This Commentary summarizes the papers’ findings and the keynotes.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130091029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Consumers and COVID-19: Survey Results on Mask-Wearing Behaviors and Beliefs 消费者与COVID-19:戴口罩行为和信念的调查结果
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-07-16 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202020
Edward S. Knotek, Raphael S. Schoenle, Alexander M. Dietrich, Gernot Müller, K. O. R. Myrseth, Michael Weber
{"title":"Consumers and COVID-19: Survey Results on Mask-Wearing Behaviors and Beliefs","authors":"Edward S. Knotek, Raphael S. Schoenle, Alexander M. Dietrich, Gernot Müller, K. O. R. Myrseth, Michael Weber","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202020","url":null,"abstract":"Masks or cloth face coverings have the potential to help reduce the spread of COVID-19 without greatly disrupting economic activity if they are widely used. To assess the state of mask wearing, we surveyed US consumers about their recent and prospective mask-wearing behavior. We find that most respondents are wearing masks in public but that some respondents are less likely to follow social-distancing guidelines while doing so, indicating a potential tradeoff between two of the recommended methods that jointly reduce coronavirus transmission. While most respondents indicated that they were extremely likely to wear a mask if required by public authorities, the reported likelihood is strongly dependent on age and perceived mask efficacy.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"702 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132827930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 41
How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth 汇总对衡量工资增长有何影响
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-07-09 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202019
Michael G. Morris, Robert W. Rich, Joseph S. Tracy
{"title":"How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth","authors":"Michael G. Morris, Robert W. Rich, Joseph S. Tracy","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202019","url":null,"abstract":"Wage growth is often measured by the change in average hourly earnings (AHE), a gauge of overall wages that aggregates information on earnings and hours worked across individuals. A close look at this aggregation method demonstrates that AHE growth reflects disproportionately the profile of high-earning workers who typically display lower and less cyclically sensitive wage growth. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we adopt a different aggregation method and compute wage growth as the average of individuals’ wage growth. The analysis indicates that the CPS measure of average wage growth is significantly higher than AHE growth and that it displays a more meaningful nonlinear relationship with the Congressional Budget Office’s unemployment gap. Last, our findings do not support the claim that there is still hidden labor market slack restraining wage growth.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127384164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring Deaths from COVID-19 测量COVID-19死亡人数
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) Pub Date : 2020-07-08 DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202018
Dionissi Aliprantis, Kristen N. Tauber
{"title":"Measuring Deaths from COVID-19","authors":"Dionissi Aliprantis, Kristen N. Tauber","doi":"10.26509/frbc-ec-202018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202018","url":null,"abstract":"Medical data are new to the analyses and deliberations of Federal Reserve monetary policymakers, but such data are now of primary importance to policymakers who need to understand the virus’s trajectory to assess economic conditions and address the virus’s impacts on the economy. The number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is one key metric that is often referred to, but as with other COVID metrics, it is a challenge to measure accurately. We discuss the issues involved in measuring COVID-19 deaths and argue that the change in the number of directly observed COVID-19 deaths is a reliable and timely metric for assessing the state and trajectory of the pandemic, which is critical given the current inconsistencies in testing and limitations of hospitalization data.","PeriodicalId":313912,"journal":{"name":"Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)","volume":"113 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117131235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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