Advances in Science and Research最新文献

{"title":"Condensation–mass flux connection in warm convective clouds: theory and implications for cloud supersaturation","authors":"Y. Kogan","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-91-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-91-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The study focused on the relationship between Condensation Rate (CR) and the upward/Plus Mass Flux (MFP) in a system of trade wind cumulus clouds simulated by an LES model. The model was initialized with data observed during the RICO field project, and simulated in a 50.0×50.0 km horizontal domain. In our previous study (Kogan, 2021) we showed that a nearly perfect\u0000correlation exists between CR and MFP (correlation coefficient R=0.99). As a result, condensation rate can be highly accurately expressed as a linear function of upward mass flux. This LES derived finding was explained using condensation theory and concept of quasi-steady supersaturation. The\u0000obtained from the LES model slope of the CR–MFP linear fit was in excellent agreement with its theoretical value (error less than 5 %). The theory also showed that the equality between the LES and theoretical values of the slope follows from the equality between supersaturation and its quasi-steady value. The study results suggest that condensation rates, for a variety of cloud\u0000conditions, can be precisely estimated using the single variable–upward\u0000mass flux. Possible implications of the results for evaluating supersaturation and degree of non-adiabaticity in clouds are discussed.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81636015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microclimatic field measurements to support microclimatological modelling with ENVI-met for an urban study area in Cologne","authors":"Nils Eingrüber, W. Korres, K. Schneider","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-81-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-81-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Cities are particularly affected by climate change\u0000impacts. Due to global warming, the frequency and intensity of summer heat\u0000events increases for many cities around the globe. Urban climatological\u0000studies have shown significant positive trends in the number of hot days and\u0000tropical nights. Heat stress is an important health as well as economic\u0000risk. Thus, urban planning needs to adapt to climate change. This requires a\u0000sound scientific analysis of different adaptation measures and management\u0000options, which must be based on appropriate data, models and scenarios to\u0000assess their suitability and efficacy. The goal of this paper is to assess\u0000the suitability of a low cost weather station network consisting of 33\u0000NETATMO weather sensors and ultrasonic anemometers to measure air\u0000temperature, relative air humidity, wind speed and wind direction of a 16 ha\u0000study area in Cologne with high temporal and spatial resolution to support\u0000microclimatological modelling. The temperature and humidity sensors were\u0000calibrated against a research grade reference sensor under laboratory\u0000conditions. In addition, a research grade meteorological station (Campbell\u0000Sci.) was set up in the study area as a reference. The NETATMO sensors were\u0000placed to identify local microclimatic effects due to different surface\u0000types, vegetation and building structures. Using descriptive statistical\u0000analyses and pairwise comparisons, significant differences in the\u0000microclimatic conditions of the various sites were found, which can clearly\u0000be attributed to specific small scale microclimate factors. Significant\u0000differences were particularly identified comparing an avenue and a narrow\u0000street as well as a backyard and an urban park area. The sensors proved to\u0000provide data reliably and with suitable quality to measure microclimatic\u0000effects. The choice of sensors lends itself well for citizen participation,\u0000needed to facilitate climate change adaptation. In our further research, the\u0000data will be used as reference data for microclimatological modelling with\u0000ENVI-met investigating particularly options of mitigating climate change\u0000effects.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79157191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Homogenization of Norwegian monthly precipitation series for the period 1961–2018","authors":"Elinah Khasandi Kuya, H. M. Gjelten, O. E. Tveito","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-73-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-73-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The primary goal of the analysis was to establish a high-quality precipitation reference dataset, which is both consistent and homogeneous,\u0000for calculation of the new standard climate normals (1991–2020). Climatol\u0000homogenization method was applied to detect inhomogeneities in 325 Norwegian precipitation series, during the period 1961–2018. Results from homogeneity testing found inhomogeneities in 29 % of the 325 series, however, only 25 % were classified as inhomogeneous after conferring with metadata and therefore adjusted. Relocation of the precipitation gauge and automation were the main causes of all the inhomogeneities in the Norwegian series, explaining 71 % and 12 % respectively of all detected breaks. Results further showed benefits of incorporating metadata to the automatically detected inhomogeneities. Linear trend analysis showed increasing trends in the period 1961–2018 except in autumn where a decreasing trend was observed. The homogeneity analysis produced a 58-year long homogenous dataset for 325 monthly precipitation sums with regional temporal variability and spatial coherence that is better than that of non-homogenized series. The dataset is more reliable in explaining the large-scale climate variations and was used to calculate the new climate normals in Norway.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88161742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to develop new digital knowledge transfer products for communicating strategies and new ways towards a carbon-neutral Germany","authors":"S. Preuschmann, Tanja Blome, Knut Görl, F. Köhnke, Bettina Steuri, Juliane El Zohbi, D. Rechid, M. Schultz, Jianing Sun, D. Jacob","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-51-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-51-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Human-induced climate change is one of the most pressing\u0000challenges of our time. The Helmholtz Association is making essential\u0000research contributions to mitigate the causes and impacts of climate change\u0000and find ways to adapt. The “Net-Zero-2050” project, the Cluster I of the\u0000Helmholtz Climate Initiative, scientifically investigates and evaluates\u0000strategies and new ways to reduce, extract and permanently store carbon\u0000emissions. Two digital knowledge transfer products (DKTPs) were developed to\u0000present the complex research results comprehensively: (1) the “Net-Zero-2050\u0000Web-Atlas” provides information on methods and technologies for CO2\u0000reduction and possible reduction paths; (2) the “Soil Carbon App” provides\u0000simulated soil carbon data to estimate climate protection potentials through\u0000different land management methods. Both formats intend to support users in\u0000making informed decisions and developing appropriate climate neutrality\u0000strategies. During the two DKTPs development, common main challenges were identified\u0000regarding concepts and stakeholder involvement. Along with that, specific\u0000approaches to solving the tasks could be distilled for each product. In the\u0000still-evolving arena of digital knowledge transfer, no standard methods can\u0000be applied. At the same time, communication of climate research results to\u0000decision-makers is becoming more and more relevant. This paper extracts the\u0000challenges and gives approaches to facilitate a transfer of the gained\u0000experience to future similar projects.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84957225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synoptic weather patterns conducive to lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia","authors":"N. Pineda, J. C. Peña, X. Soler, M. Aran, N. Pérez-Zañón","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-39-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-39-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Wildfires cause substantial losses to socio-economic and\u0000natural assets, especially in Mediterranean climate regions. Despite human\u0000activity being the main cause of wildfires in Mediterranean European countries,\u0000lightning-ignited wildfires should also be considered a major disruptive\u0000agent as they can trigger large fires. In addition, recent studies on the\u0000potential climate change effects on wildfires pointed out that\u0000lightning-ignited wildfires may gain relevance in Mediterranean areas in the\u0000years to come. The present study analyses the synoptical weather patterns\u0000favouring lightning-ignited wildfires in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula).\u0000Being able to identify areas with an elevated lightning-ignition survival at\u0000daily timescales would be of great assistance to wildfire management\u0000agencies, i.e. locating ignitions and potential holdover fires, preparing\u0000for days with multiple ignitions or routing detection flight paths. It is\u0000worth noticing that one of the reasons that lightning-caused wildfires are\u0000difficult to manage is that they can survive for several days after the\u0000ignition, emerging days later once surface vegetation becomes dry enough to\u0000support sustained combustion. For this reason, in a first step, a reliable\u0000lightning–wildfire association is needed to properly identify the date and\u0000time of the fire starter for each wildfire. Afterwards, the circulation types\u0000on the days of ignition are analysed. The study relies on a dataset of 870\u0000lightning-ignited wildfires, gathered by the Forest Protection Agency of the\u0000autonomous government of Catalonia between 2005 and 2020. Lightning data were\u0000provided by the Lightning Location System operated by the Meteorological\u0000Service of Catalonia. Results show that lightning-ignited wildfires in\u0000Catalonia are related to a typical synoptic weather pattern dominated by a\u0000short-wave trough at 500 hPa, with three distinct associations: an Iberian\u0000thermal low (51 % of the fires), a northern flow (24 %) and\u0000prefrontal convection (13 %).\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83340645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictability analysis and skillful scale verification of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) in the COSMO-D2 high resolution ensemble system","authors":"Michele Salmi, C. Marsigli, M. Dorninger","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-29-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. During the last decade, the constant improvement in computational capacity led to the development of the first limited-area, kilometer-scale ensemble prediction systems (L-EPS). The COSMO-D2 EPS (now ICON-D2) was the operational L-EPS at the German weather service (DWD) and has a spatial resolution of around 2.2 km. This grid resolution allows large scale, deep convective processes such as thunderstorms or heavy showers to be handled explicitly, without any physical parametrization. Special parameters involving both clouds microphysics and large scale lifting – such as the Lightning Potential Index, or LPI – have also been developed in order to try to bring the forecasting of deep convection and therefore also of lightning activity to a new level of spatial accuracy. With such high resolution forecasts comes however also a higher error potential, at least for gridpoint-verification. The use of this high resolution setup in an ensemble prediction system might however bring huge benefits in terms of skill and predictability. This work is a preliminary attempt to apply innovative verification approaches such as the dispersion Fractions Skill Score (dFSS) and the ensemble-SAL (eSAL) to the LPI in the COSMO-D2 EPS. Aim of this work is to assess the relationship between the ensemble error and the ensemble dispersion at different spatial scales. For the summer months 2019, the COSMO-D2 EPS shows a general tendency to overestimate the predictability (underestimate the ensemble spread) of the lightning events, though the spread-error relationship varies greatly for different forecast lead times. With the help of the dFSS, one can also express this relationship in terms of skillful scales. On average, the system produces a useful forecast during the afternoon hours for horizontal scales of around 200 km. However, the ensemble members show an average horizontal dispersion that amounts to around half of that value, at more or less 100 km.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89475771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using machine learning to produce a cost-effective national building height map of Ireland to categorise local climate zones","authors":"Eoghan Keany, Geoffrey Bessardon, E. Gleeson","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-13-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-13-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. ECOCLIMAP-Second Generation (ECO-SG) is the land-cover map used in the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the shared ALADIN-HIRLAM Numerical Weather Prediction system used for short-range operational weather forecasting for Ireland. The ECO-SG urban classification implicitly includes building heights. The work presented in this paper involved the production of the first open-access building height map for the island of Ireland which complements the Ulmas-Walsh land cover map, a map which has improved the horizontal extent of urban areas over Ireland. The resulting building height map will potentially enable upgrades to ECO-SG urban information for future implementation in HARMONIE-AROME. This study not only produced the first open-access building height map of Ireland at 10 m × 10 m resolution, but assessed various types of regression models trained using pre-existing building height information for Dublin City and selected 64 important spatio-temporal features, engineered from both the Sentinel-1A/B and Sentinel-2A/B satellites. The performance metrics revealed that a Convolutional Neural Network is superior in all aspects except the computational time required to create the map. Despite the superior accuracy of the Convolutional Neural Network, the final building height map created results from the ridge regression model which provided the best blend of realistic output and low computational complexity. The method relies solely on freely available satellite imagery, is cost-effective, can be updated regularly, and can be applied to other regions depending on the availability of representative regional building height sample data.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85269350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From sandcastles to bridges: how can we help forecasters to deal with uncertainties?","authors":"A. Sivle, J. Jeuring, Mai-Linn Finstad Svehagen","doi":"10.5194/asr-19-1-2022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-1-2022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. At MET Norway, a small interdisciplinary team - the Sandbox - spends part of their working hours trying to improve the communication between the meteorologists and their audience. In this article we invite the reader to\u0000join us on a journey along the Sandbox process during 2021. The focus of our work that year was on the communication of forecast uncertainty. We share what we have been working on throughout the (mostly virtual) sessions, and how we achieved a set of tools, recommendations, and a knowledge repository for forecasters to consult during their operational duty. The Sandbox story is aimed to inspire others in the meteorological community to explore the potential of creative interdisciplinary work as a method to bridge gaps between research, operational practice, and user uptake.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84427207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity study of the REMO regional climate model to domain size","authors":"Réka Suga, Otília A. Megyeri-Korotaj, Gabriella Allaga-Zsebeházi","doi":"10.5194/asr-18-157-2021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-157-2021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In the framework of the KlimAdat national project, the Hungarian\u0000Meteorological Service (OMSZ) is aiming to perform 10 km horizontal\u0000resolution simulations with the 2015 version of the REMO regional climate\u0000model over Central and Eastern Europe. The long-term simulations were\u0000preceded by a 10-year long sensitivity study on domain size, which is\u0000summarised in this paper. We selected three different domains embedded in\u0000each other, which contain the whole area of the Danube and Tisza river\u0000catchments. Lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the 50 km\u0000resolution REMO driven by the MPI-ESM-LR global climate model. Simulations\u0000were performed for the period of 1970–1980 including 1-year spin-up.\u0000Monthly and seasonal means of daily 2 m temperature, precipitation sum and\u0000several precipitation indices were evaluated. Reference datasets were E-OBS\u000019.0 and CarpatClim-HU. We can conclude, that the selection of domain size\u0000has a larger impact on the simulation of precipitation, and in the case of\u0000the seasonal mean of the precipitation indices, the differences amongst the\u0000results obtained on each model domain exceed 10 %. In general, the\u0000smallest biases occurred on the largest domain, therefore further long-term\u0000simulations are being produced on this domain.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85394759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Addressing up-scaling methodologies for convection-permitting EPSs using statistical and machine learning tools","authors":"Tiziana Comito, Colm Clancy, Conor Daly, A. Hally","doi":"10.5194/asr-18-145-2021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-145-2021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Convection-permitting weather forecasting models allow for prediction of rainfall events with increasing levels of detail.\u0000However, the high resolutions used can create problems and introduce the so-called “double penalty” problem when attempting to verify the forecast accuracy. Post-processing within an ensemble prediction system can help to overcome these issues.\u0000In this paper, two new up-scaling algorithms based on Machine Learning and Statistical approaches are proposed and tested. The aim of these tools is to enhance the skill and value of the forecasts and to provide a better tool for forecasters to predict severe weather.\u0000","PeriodicalId":30081,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Science and Research","volume":"123 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80195129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}