Philosophy of Action eJournal最新文献

The Experience is (Not) Everything: Sequential Outcomes and Social Decision-Making 体验是(不是)一切:顺序结果和社会决策

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2020-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3699529

J. Buckenmaier, Eugen Dimant

引用次数: 3

Zum Praktischen Anwendungsnutzen Der Entscheidungstheorie (About the Practical Application of Decision Theory) 关于决策理论的实际应用

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3344640

Ruediger von Nitzsch, Florian Methling

{"title":"Zum Praktischen Anwendungsnutzen Der Entscheidungstheorie (About the Practical Application of Decision Theory)","authors":"Ruediger von Nitzsch, Florian Methling","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3344640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3344640","url":null,"abstract":"German Abstract: Die Entscheidungslehre ist die anwendungsorientierte, praskriptive Richtung der Entscheidungstheorie, die fur wichtige Entscheidungsprobleme wertvolle Hilfe liefert. Empfohlen wird ein Entscheidungsprozess in drei Schritten: (1) Strukturierung der Entscheidungssituation, (2) Entwicklung eines Wirkungsmodells und (3) Evaluation der Handlungsalternativen. In diesem Beitrag werden die wesentlichen Inhalte dieser Schritte skizziert. Von besonderer Bedeutung fur die Qualitat der Entscheidung ist eine reflektierte Analyse der Ziele im ersten Schritt auf der Basis des Value-focused Thinking und eine darauf aufbauende kreative Herangehensweise bei der Identifikation von Handlungsalternativen. Hingewiesen wird ebenfalls auf die Notwendigkeit, durch Debiasing den Einfluss typischer Schatzfehler und Verzerrungsfaktoren auf die Wirkungsprognosen zu verringern. Nach den theoretischen Ausfuhrungen schliest der Beitrag mit Hinweisen, wie sich die Vorgehensweise mit Hilfe eines Online-Tools konkret zur Losung praktischer Entscheidungsfragen umsetzen lasst. \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: Decision analysis is the application-oriented, prescriptive direction of decision theory, which provides valuable help for important decision problems. A decision process in three steps is recommended: (1) Structuring the decision frame, (2) developing an impact model, and (3) evaluating the alternatives. This paper outlines the main contents of these steps. A well reflected analysis of the objectives based on value-focused thinking and a creative approach to the identification of alternatives based on this analysis are of particular importance for the quality of the decision. Furthermore, the necessity to reduce the influence of typical estimation errors and distortion factors on impact prognoses through debiasing is pointed out. Hence, the paper concludes on how the approach can be implemented with the help of an online tool to solve practical decision questions.","PeriodicalId":299964,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Action eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129947918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Geometric Dispersion Theory for Decisions Under Risk: Accurate Out-of-Sample Predictions and Four Distinct Behavioral Patterns 风险下决策的几何离散理论:准确的样本外预测和四种不同的行为模式

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-05 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3193116

B. Malakooti

引用次数: 1

Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from the Field 歧义偏好和投资组合选择:来自实地的证据

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2017-11-07 DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.3006

Milo Bianchi, J. Tallon

引用次数: 45

Expected Comparative Utility Theory 期望比较效用理论

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2017-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2984382

David Robert

引用次数: 0

Glitch Studies and the Ambiguous Objectivity of Algorithms 故障研究与算法的模糊客观性

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2017-03-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2985424

D. Kolkman, Jakko Kemper

引用次数: 1

Evolution of Mindsight and Psychological Commitment among Strategically Interacting Agents 战略互动主体的思维视域与心理承诺演化

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2016-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2104432

Dimitry Rtischev

{"title":"Evolution of Mindsight and Psychological Commitment among Strategically Interacting Agents","authors":"Dimitry Rtischev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2104432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2104432","url":null,"abstract":"We study the evolution of strategic psychological capabilities in a population of interacting agents. Specifically, we consider agents which are either blind or with mindsight, and either transparent or opaque. An agent with mindsight can observe the psychological makeup of a transparent agent, i.e., its logic, emotions, commitments and other elements that determine how it chooses actions. A blind agent cannot observe and opaque agents cannot be observed. Our assumption that mindsight and transparency are costly and optional exposes a middle ground between standard game theory without mindsight and evolution of preferences theory with obligatory and costless mindsight. We show that the only evolutionarily stable monomorphic population is one in which all agents are blind, opaque, and act-rational. We find that mindsight, transparency, and rule-rational commitments may evolve, albeit only in a portion of the population that fluctuates in size over generations. We reexamine the Ultimatum and Trust games in light of our findings and demonstrate that an evolved population of agents can differ significantly from a population of simplistic payoff-maximizers in terms of psychological traits and economic outcomes.","PeriodicalId":299964,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Action eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132087633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Inconclusive Quantum Measurements and Decisions under Uncertainty 不确定性下的非结论性量子测量和决策

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2016-04-16 DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2016.00012

V. Yukalov, D. Sornette

{"title":"Inconclusive Quantum Measurements and Decisions under Uncertainty","authors":"V. Yukalov, D. Sornette","doi":"10.3389/fphy.2016.00012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2016.00012","url":null,"abstract":"We give a mathematical definition for the notion of inconclusive quantum measurements. In physics, such measurements occur at intermediate stages of a complex measurement procedure, with the final measurement result being operationally testable. Since the mathematical structure of Quantum Decision Theory has been developed in analogy with the theory of quantum measurements, the inconclusive quantum measurements correspond, in Quantum Decision Theory, to intermediate stages of decision making in the process of taking decisions under uncertainty. The general form of the quantum probability for a composite event is the sum of a utility factor, describing a rational evaluation of the considered prospect, and of an attraction factor, characterizing irrational, subconscious attitudes of the decision maker. Despite the involved irrationality, the probability of prospects can be evaluated. This is equivalent to the possibility of calculating quantum probabilities without specifying hidden variables. We formulate a general way of evaluation, based on the use of non-informative priors. As an example, we suggest the explanation of the decoy effect. Our quantitative predictions are in very good agreement with experimental data.","PeriodicalId":299964,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Action eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130476452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

Garbage Can Model NetLogo Implementation 垃圾桶模型NetLogo实现

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2016-02-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2732985

I. Smarzhevskiy

引用次数: 0

Neural Mechanisms of the Postdecisional Spreading-of-Alternatives Effect: EEG Study 决策后选择扩散效应的神经机制:脑电图研究

Philosophy of Action eJournal Pub Date : 2015-12-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2700656

M. Colosio, A. Shestakova, V. Nikulin, A. Shpektor, V. Klucharev

{"title":"Neural Mechanisms of the Postdecisional Spreading-of-Alternatives Effect: EEG Study","authors":"M. Colosio, A. Shestakova, V. Nikulin, A. Shpektor, V. Klucharev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2700656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2700656","url":null,"abstract":"Cognitive dissonance theory suggests that our preferences are modulated by the mere act of choosing. According to the cognitive dissonance theory, a choice between two similarly valued alternatives creates a psychological tension (cognitive dissonance) that is reduced by a post-decisional re-evaluation of the alternatives – the post-decisional spreading-of-alternatives effect – the chosen item being later evaluated more positively and the rejected item more negatively. Previous neuroimaging studies indicated a central role of the medial prefrontal cortex in cognitive dissonance. In this work, we used electroencephalography to investigate a similarity of neural mechanisms underlying postdecisional preference change and general performance monitoring mechanisms. Our study demonstrates that decisions, associated with stronger cognitive dissonance, trigger a stronger negative fronto-central evoked response similar to the error-related negativity (ERN). Furthermore, the amplitude of ERN correlated with the post-decisional spreading-of-alternatives effect. ERN has been previously associated with incorrect responses and a general performance monitoring mechanism. Thus, our results suggest that cognitive dissonance can be reflected in the activity of the medial prefrontal cortex as a part of the general performance-monitoring circuitry","PeriodicalId":299964,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Action eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128174191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0