Tuugi Chuluun, S. Javadi, Takeshi Nishikawa, Andrew K. Prevost
{"title":"Corporate Long-Termism: Looking Toward an (Un)Certain Future","authors":"Tuugi Chuluun, S. Javadi, Takeshi Nishikawa, Andrew K. Prevost","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3894555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3894555","url":null,"abstract":"Do investors benefit when managers have long-term perspective? The dominant narrative suggests that they do. In this paper, we exploit the language characteristics of annual reports and offer a nuanced answer. We find that future-focused language is associated with relatively lower corporate risk, greater investment in tangible assets, more innovation, lower cost of capital, wider lender base, and higher firm value when accompanied by lower uncertainty. These associations either disappear or reverse, when uncertain tone is high, indicating that corporate long-termism is value enhancing only when accompanied by low uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126935419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Panagiotis Asimakopoulos, Stylianos Asimakopoulos, Xinyu Li
{"title":"The Role of Environmental, Social, and Governance Rating on Corporate Debt Structure","authors":"Panagiotis Asimakopoulos, Stylianos Asimakopoulos, Xinyu Li","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3889307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3889307","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of having an Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) rating on a firm’s debt structure, i.e. how firms change their leverage ratios and debt components when becoming ESG rated. Targeted market and book leverage ratios are reduced when firms become ESG rated. We show that the provision of ESG rating mitigates information asymmetry. Current leverage ratios are not altered significantly for ESG rated firms but these firms redistribute their financing sources from public debt (bonds debt) to private debt (bank loans). This substitution effect is mainly driven by environmental and social factors and is more pronounced for firms with high financial pressure, low growth opportunities and specialized assets. Debt restructuring remains valid under various robustness and endogeneity tests. These results are consistent with the trade-off and pecking order theories of capital structure.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130797354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Resilience Perspective on Quality Jobs and Performance for Purpose-Driven Companies in the US","authors":"Tracy Van Holt, C. Restrepo, Aidan Claffey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3888354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3888354","url":null,"abstract":"Investing in employment quality can be beneficial for employees, corporate performance, and investor returns. We use a resilience-based quality jobs framework to assess employment quality for companies included in B Lab’s B Impact Assessment (BIA) database. The SVEF framework includes four dimensions of employment quality: Security, Viability, Equity and Flexibility. Security is the dependability of a continued job. Viability refers to a company’s reputation and how it relates to its community. Equity refers to fairness, diversity and inclusion. Flexibility is freedom of choice, degree of options, and potential mobility. Indices for Security, Viability, Equity and Flexibility were created for 4,847 assessments, which represent 3,934 companies, to provide relative scores along these dimensions of quality jobs for the period 2015-2020. There was significant variation in scores among these companies and also between industries. Regression modeling was used to better understand the relationship between quality jobs and company outcomes. Companies were classified as having high, low and no job growth according to their assessment responses. An ordinal regression model suggested that a 1-point increase in the average SVEF score is associated with a statistically significant 2.7% increase in the odds of being in a higher job growth group. Similarly, logistic regression models indicated that higher SVEF scores were associated with lower job attrition rates, higher employee satisfaction and higher employee ownership.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132054981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Credit Default Swaps and Credit Risk Reallocation","authors":"Dorian Henricot, Thibaut Piquard","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3885079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3885079","url":null,"abstract":"Using granular data on both debt and credit default swaps (CDS) exposures by French investors on non-financial corporations (NFC) and euro area banks on French NFCs, we study how CDS reallocate investors' exposure to credit risk. To guide our investigation, we propose a methodology to disentangle investors' strategies between speculators, hedgers, and arbitrageurs. We make three contributions. First, CDS reduce exposure concentration. Hedgers offset their most concentrated exposures while speculators use them as a substitute for debt. Second, speculators use CDS to reach for yield both between and within rating classes. This could pertain to relatively lower leverage constraints at lower ratings, or to the opacity advantage of CDS. Finally, CDS increase investment funds and dealers portfolio risk. Both reach for yield and exposure diversification contribute to this rise. Exposure diversification in the CDS market thus does not translate into return diversification.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"148 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123640255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation","authors":"W. Cui, Randall Wright, Yu Zhu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3881116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3881116","url":null,"abstract":"We study economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets, then, after information on idiosyncratic productivity arrives, retrade it in secondary markets. Our secondary markets incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining and liquidity frictions. We distinguish between full or partial sales (one firm gets all or some of the other’s capital). Both exhibit interesting long- and short-run patterns in data that the model can match. Depending on monetary and credit conditions, more partial sales occur when liquidity is tight. Quantitatively, we find significant steady-state and business-cycle implications. We also investigate the impact of search, taxation, and persistence in firm-specific shocks.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133964534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European countries","authors":"Thanh Cong Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3879449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3879449","url":null,"abstract":"We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2-2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer recessions. Specifically, with a one-standard-deviation increase in the economic policy uncertainty index, on average the probability of an economic recession goes up by 14%, and the probability of an economic recession ending reduces by 27%, controlling for general economic uncertainty and economic and political factors. Moreover, we find that fiscal expansion, adequate political support, and left-wing governments’ policies are important to alleviate the effects of policy uncertainty on the likelihood of economic recessions.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134119381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pre-crisis conditions and financial crisis duration","authors":"Thanh Cong Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3879489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3879489","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how pre-crisis conditions affect the duration of different types of financial crises using a data sample of 244 financial crises in 89 countries over the period 1985-2017. Results from our parametric survival analysis show that the duration of any type of financial crisis is longer for countries having higher levels of public debt prior to financial crises, whereas it is shorter for countries characterised by higher pre-crisis levels of (i) current account balance, (ii) international reserves, and (iii) institutional quality. Similarly, while pegged exchange rate regimes are associated with a longer duration of financial crises, majority governments help countries emerge faster from crises. Moreover, banking and currency crises tend to be more prolonged when preceded by higher credit growth. We also find a positive effect of pre-crisis fiscal balance on the probability of crisis ending, and it is noteworthy that this effect is strengthened under majority governments and a stronger institutional environment. Finally, our duration dependence analysis suggests that banking, currency, and twin and triple crises are more likely to end when they grow older.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123812167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Empirical Information Sensitivity of Treasury Bonds and Stocks","authors":"Tri Vi Dang, Wei Li, Yongqing Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3892142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3892142","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we propose an empirical measure of information sensitivity based on historical prices. If long term Treasury bonds with riskless payments are not held to maturity its information sensitivity is 0.4% higher than the S&P500 index in the period 2010 to 2020. We derive an information sensitivity channel of government asset purchases and show that large scale stock purchases by the Chinese National Team during the stock market crash in June 2015 reduce the information sensitivity of intervened stocks by 16% compared to other stocks. When stocks become less information sensitive, there is less issuance of equity reports.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115616292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global Trade Slowdown in the 2010s: Sign of Deglobalisation?","authors":"Edmund Ho","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3894782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3894782","url":null,"abstract":"Global trade has experienced a persistent slowdown since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), mainly driven by the deceleration in growth of goods trade. This study aims at identifying the reasons behind the persistent trade slowdown by using a panel regression model with data of 22 Advanced Economies (AEs) and 17 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). Our study suggests that the slowdown in global exports is mainly driven by: (i) the loosening in domestic income elasticity to exports among EMEs;(ii) the decline in foreign demand elasticity to goods exports amid the deceleration of global investment;(iii) the deglobalisation momentum amid the declining global value chain (GVC) activities and the uncertainty in trade policies since the China-US trade war;and (iv) the supply side factors including the narrowing AEs-EMEs wage gap and the diminishing US dollar trade finance condition. Moreover, these negative factors have affected mainly goods exports rather than services exports, which by comparison remained resilient until the Covid-19 pandemic. The results imply that the trend of global trade, especially goods trade, is unlikely to rebound to the pre-GFC level, as the above negative factors are likely to prolong in the post-pandemic era.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126361950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trade Misreporting and Capital Flight: A Study of Bangladesh with Major OECD Export Partner Countries","authors":"Sanjana Das, A. Biswas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3877569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3877569","url":null,"abstract":"Present study seeks to determine the quantitative measurement of unrecorded transaction through misreporting of trade. We want to find out the determinants of informal transaction and the relationship between hidden capital outflow and inflow. Another attention is to identify the hidden capital and its share in GDP as well as total trade of Bangladesh with individual partner countries. Also, the measurement of capital flight through the difference between actual & official balance of trade. In our study here we have taken 3 major or largest OECD export partner countries of Bangladesh according to their average percentage share of world export. Three largest export OECD partner countries are USA, Germany and UK. Now to measure the export and import misreporting we have taken the difference between actual and official data of Bangladesh where we have considered partner countries import from Bangladesh is the actual export of Bangladesh and partner countries export to Bangladesh is the actual import of Bangladesh.","PeriodicalId":284021,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Investment & Finance eJournal","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121683926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}