{"title":"Fiscal Theory, Price Level, and Exchange Rate","authors":"Zhengyang Jiang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3059009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3059009","url":null,"abstract":"Government surplus forecasts comove strongly with nominal and real exchange rates. They are the best explanatory variable of exchange rate movements at semi-annual frequency in my post-2008 sample. In comparison, the comovement between government surplus forecasts and price level movements is much weaker. I develop a model to show how price stickiness can reconcile these findings. Because prices are sticky while exchange rates are flexible, nominal and real exchange rates adjust in response to fiscal shocks. This model connects exchange rates to the fiscal side of economic fundamentals, and provides a more realistic fiscal theory of currency value.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133704897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Börsch-Supan, Klaus Härtl, D. N. Leite, A. Ludwig
{"title":"Endogenous Retirement Behavior of Heterogeneous Households Under Pension Reforms","authors":"A. Börsch-Supan, Klaus Härtl, D. N. Leite, A. Ludwig","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3172758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3172758","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a unified framework to measure the effects of different reforms of the pension system on retirement ages and macroeconomic indicators in the face of demographic change. A rich overlapping generations (OLG) model is built and endogenous retirement decisions are explicitly modeled within a public pension system. Heterogeneity with respect to consumption preferences, wage profiles, and survival rates is embedded in the model. Besides the expected direct effects of these reforms on the behavior of households, we observe that feedback effects do occur. Results suggest that individual retirement decisions are strongly influenced by numerous incentives produced by the pension system and macroeconomic variables, such as the statutory eligibility age, adjustment rates, the presence of a replacement rate, and interest rates. Those decisions, in turn, have several impacts on the macro-economy which can create feedback cycles working through equilibrium effects on interest rates and wages. Taken together, these reform scenarios have strong implications for the sustainability of pension systems. Because of the rich nature of our unified model framework, we are able to rank the reform proposals according to several individual and macroeconomic measures, thereby providing important support for policy recommendations on pension systems.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116881349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Size Matter? Implications of Household Size for Economic Growth and Convergence","authors":"Vadim Kufenko, Vincent J. Geloso, K. Prettner","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12188","url":null,"abstract":"We assess the effects of changes in household size on the long-run evolution of living standards and on cross-country convergence. When the observed changes in average household size across countries are taken into consideration, growth in living standards is slower throughout the 20th century as compared to a measure based on per capita GDP. Furthermore, the speed of divergence between different countries be- fore 1950 is faster and the speed of convergence after 1950 is slower after adjusting for the evolution in household size.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116786606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Comparisons of Cycle of Money with and Without the Maximum Mixed Savings","authors":"Constantinos Challoumis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3158220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3158220","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is about the utility of cycle of money with and without the maximum mixed savings. This means that we examine the crucial points of tax policy and public policy which are the best for the increase of consumption and of the investments, subject to the case that there exist the maximum mixed savings and the case that we have an absence of the maximum mixed savings. Therefore we have an analysis which based on the utility of the public sector and the utility of the uncontrolled enterprises. Thence, it is plausible to extract conclusions about the utility of cycle of money, showing the points and the behaviors of any economy when there are and when there are not maximum mixed savings. For the purposes of this analysis is used a Q.E. method approach.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124577290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Designing an Inclusive and Equitable Framework for Tax Treaty Dispute Resolution: An Indian Perspective","authors":"Sriram Govind, Shreya Rao","doi":"10.54648/taxi2018032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54648/taxi2018032","url":null,"abstract":"Tax treaty dispute resolution is neither efficient nor equitable at the moment. This is particularly problematic in light of countries' adopting aggressive tax policies to tackle base erosion and profit shifting practices, resulting in an increase in disputes. The MAP has had limited success, while discussions on new mechanisms to supplement the MAP (such as tax treaty arbitration) have proved controversial and have failed to bring developed and developing countries to a consensus. India has been one of the countries in vocal opposition to tax treaty arbitration, even as it staggers under the sheer volume of international tax disputes. Against this backdrop, this article proposes a workable means of tax treaty dispute resolution, with specific focus on the concerns expressed by India. The authors first analyse available domestic and international mechanisms in India for resolving disputes, including the MAP under tax treaties. The authors then evaluate the pros and cons of non-binding or binding solutions to supplement the MAP under tax treaties. Next, they examine concerns raised by developing countries, with specific reference to Indian constitutional and legal concerns as regards a binding dispute resolution regime. In light of this analysis, the authors propose a possible institutional framework for tax treaty dispute resolution tailored for India that takes into account these concerns and attempts to be both inclusive and equitable.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114733723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Controlled Transactions Under Conditions","authors":"Constantinos Challoumis Κωνσταντίνος Χαλλουμής","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3137747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3137747","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the case of the process of choice by the enterprises, of the best gain method for them. Therefore, companies scrutinize the general economic circumstances, and according to their business plan they proceed to the appropriate method for them. The comparability analysis is the key element for this case. So, there are a lot of things which companies study, when they choose their method.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125518245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transfer Pricing for Digital Platforms","authors":"Thibaut Roques","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3103960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3103960","url":null,"abstract":"Aligning transfer pricing outcomes with value creation for digital companies is at the core of the BEPS (“Base Erosion and Profit Shifting”) initiative, led by the OECD. Many of the giant digital companies which are the focus of the BEPS initiative are modeled by economists as platforms. Network effects and user participation have rightly been identified as key features of these markets in the BEPS 2015 reports. However, this article argues that BEPS 2015 reports have not drawn the right conclusions from this and are likely to fall short of their main objective. In digital platform markets, value is primarily created by users either by their work or by their sole presence. The so-called network effects (i.e. the externalities exerted by users on other users on the platform) are generated by the action of users and not directly by the action of the platform itself. The question of the attribution of the value created by network effects thus cannot be solved by functional analyses (as typically performed in transfer pricing projects): functional analyses focus solely on functions, assets and risks at the company level, but, in the context of digital platform, value is created by users, outside the scope of activity of the platform. As a result, transfer pricing rules should be amended to fully acknowledge the idiosyncrasies of digital platforms. Contrary to most papers devoted to this topic, this article does not advocate for a complete rewriting of the international tax rules and rather proposes achievable adjustments to the existing transfer pricing framework. Out of lack of better practical options, we believe that this attribution question should be solved by adjusting the international tax framework and defining a clear rule for the treatment of network effects. More precisely, transfer pricing lawmakers should decide on a rule to attribute these network effects and should clearly establish which legal entity should be entitled the profit generated by network effects. It is our opinion that taxable income generated by network effects should be located where these effects are created. This could be achieved for example by treating network effects in a similar manner as group synergies, i.e. benefits arising from these effects would stay in the country where they are generated.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132045869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"International Tax Reforms with Flexible Prices","authors":"A. Razin, E. Sadka","doi":"10.3386/W24204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24204","url":null,"abstract":"The growing spread of globalization creates a genuine need for international tax reforms. In this we establish the neutrality of border-tax adjustments of the income tax; the welfare dominance of residence-based over source-based income taxation, albeit at the cost of a larger trade deficit; and the ineffectiveness of non-transitory border taxes as a means for reducing the trade deficit.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124173770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Efficiency Consequences of Heterogeneous Behavioral Responses to Energy Fiscal Policies","authors":"S. Houde, Joseph E. Aldy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3082422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3082422","url":null,"abstract":"The behavioral responses to taxes and subsidies are often subject to various behavioral biases and transaction costs—what we define as “microfrictions.” We develop a theoretical framework to show how these microfrictions—and their heterogeneity across the population and policy instruments—affect the design of Pigouvian policies. Standard Pigouvian pricing still holds with transaction costs, but requires adjustment with behavioral biases. We use transaction-level data from the US appliance market to estimate the heterogeneous behavioral responses to an array of energy fiscal policies and to quantify microfrictions. We then assess optimal fiscal policies and find that it is rarely optimal to couple a Pigouvian tax on energy with an investment subsidy in this context. We also find that energy labels—intended to increase the salience of energy information—can interact in perverse ways with both taxes and subsidies.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129499549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policy Uncertainty and Bank Bailouts","authors":"F. Caliendo, Lei (Nick) Guo, Jason M. Smith","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3068745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3068745","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We model the effect of bank bailouts on portfolio choices and welfare. Banks sell bonds to leverage investment in risky projects and households buy bonds under rational expectations about default risk. Bailouts induce greater leverage but reduce equilibrium interest rates. The interest rate effect dominates the leverage effect and bailouts lead to fewer bank failures. Bailouts are efficient but not Pareto optimal: bailouts increase social welfare by mitigating uninsurable risk, which helps banks but hurts households since the insurance gains are not worth the price households must pay to finance the bailout.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"117 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127295702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}