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Growing Through Trade in Intermediate Goods: The Role of Foreign Growth and Domestic Tariffs 通过中间产品贸易实现增长:国外增长和国内关税的作用
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12169
C. Álvarez-Albelo, A. Manresa, Mònica Pigem‐Vigo
{"title":"Growing Through Trade in Intermediate Goods: The Role of Foreign Growth and Domestic Tariffs","authors":"C. Álvarez-Albelo, A. Manresa, Mònica Pigem‐Vigo","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12169","url":null,"abstract":"We show that pure Ricardian trade can account for the empirical evidence that domestic growth is more affected by foreign growth than by trade openness. To do this, we develop a two‐country model involving a backward economy that exchanges intermediate goods with a faster growing country. We obtain three main results regarding growth and welfare of the backward economy: (i) the growth‐enhancing comparative advantage is facilitated by faster foreign growth; (ii) the growth rate may be negatively affected or unaffected by a domestic tariff, while it is always positively impacted by foreign growth; and (iii) a domestic tariff could be welfare‐improving.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132774733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics 非常简单的马尔可夫完美产业动态:经验
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-07-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2945432
J. Abbring, Jeffrey R. Campbell, J. Tilly, N. Yang
{"title":"Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics","authors":"J. Abbring, Jeffrey R. Campbell, J. Tilly, N. Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2945432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2945432","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops an econometric model of firm entry, competition, and exit in oligopolistic markets. The model has an essentially unique symmetric Markov-perfect equilibrium, which can be computed very quickly. We show that its primitives are identified from market-level data on the number of active firms and demand shifters, and we implement a nested fixed point procedure for its estimation. Estimates from County Business Patterns data on U.S. local cinema markets point to tough local competition. Sunk costs make the industry's transition following a permanent demand shock last 10 to 15 years.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"54 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131859989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The EITC and Employment Transitions: Labor Force Attachment, Annual Exit, and the Role of Information EITC与就业转型:劳动力依附、年度退出和信息的作用
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-07-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2972202
Riley Wilson
{"title":"The EITC and Employment Transitions: Labor Force Attachment, Annual Exit, and the Role of Information","authors":"Riley Wilson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2972202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2972202","url":null,"abstract":"Many low-income households experience high frequency labor market transitions. It is unclear how the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) work incentives affect these frequent entry and exit decisions. Exploiting the panel nature of the Current Population Survey, I show that EITC expansions induce less-educated single women with previous work experience to work more months, leading to more annual weeks worked and less annual exit, suggesting the EITC operates in part by keeping previously employed single women in the labor force. Employment responds to changes in the previous year's EITC, consistent with people responding to information about the returns to work.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125305991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distributional Effects of Tobacco Taxation: A Comparative Analysis 烟草税的分配效应:比较分析
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-25 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8805
A. Fuchs, Maria Fernanda Gonzalez Icaza, Daniela Paz
{"title":"Distributional Effects of Tobacco Taxation: A Comparative Analysis","authors":"A. Fuchs, Maria Fernanda Gonzalez Icaza, Daniela Paz","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8805","url":null,"abstract":"Tobacco taxes have positive impacts on health outcomes. However, policy makers often hesitate to use them because of the perception that poorer households are affected disproportionally more than richer households. This study compares the simulated distributional effects of tobacco tax increases in eight low- and middle-income countries. It applies a standardized extended cost-benefit analysis methodology and relies on comparable data sources across countries. The net effect of raising taxes on cigarettes encompasses the direct negative price shock to household budgets and the long-term benefits of improved health outcomes. The distributional incidence is assessed by estimating decile-specific behavioral responses and relative income gains. The comparative results do not support the claim that tobacco taxes are necessarily regressive. Although welfare losses from the first-order price shock disproportionally affect the poor, these negative shocks are attenuated by greater price-responsiveness among lower-income groups and further offset by higher long-term relative gains through reduced medical expenditures and additional years of productive life as taxes dissuade smoking. In several countries, increasing the price of cigarettes is pro-poor and welfare improving for a large share of the population. Along with raising taxes, policy should aim at encouraging responsiveness to price changes and target tobacco-related medical expenses that disproportionally burden the poor.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129687879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
No Better Time than Now: Future Uncertainty and Private Investment Under Dictatorship 没有比现在更好的时机:独裁统治下的未来不确定性和私人投资
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-10 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12120
Michael Albertus, Victor Gay
{"title":"No Better Time than Now: Future Uncertainty and Private Investment Under Dictatorship","authors":"Michael Albertus, Victor Gay","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecpo.12120","url":null,"abstract":"Despite received wisdom that long time horizons and formal institutions can induce private investment under dictatorship, there is substantial investment even in relatively unconstrained regimes. This paper provides a novel explanation for the puzzle of investment in these regimes: economic elites’ uncertainty over expected investment returns under plausible alternative authoritarian successors. We construct a noisy signaling model that captures how uncertainty over which type of authoritarian successor will rule next and uncertainty in the truthfulness of policy promises made by potential autocratic successors might provide incentives for elite investment.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"119807496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought 海湾国家的财政调整:成本比之前想象的要低
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484361573.001
Armand Fouejieu, Sergio Rodríguez, S. Shahid
{"title":"Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought","authors":"Armand Fouejieu, Sergio Rodríguez, S. Shahid","doi":"10.5089/9781484361573.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484361573.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates fiscal multipliers for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Using OLS panel fixed effects on a sample of six countries from 1990-2016, results indicate that GCC fiscal multipliers have declined in recent years which would make the on-going fiscal consolidation less costly than previously thought. Though both capital and current multipliers have declined in recent years, capital multipliers are larger than current multipliers, which implies that reducing (less productive) current spending will help limit the adverse impact of such measures on growth.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129990130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Fiscal Consolidations in Low-Income Countries 低收入国家财政整顿的宏观经济和分配影响
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484363034.001
Adrian Peralta-Alva, Marina Mendes Tavares, Xuan S. Tam, Xin Tang
{"title":"The Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Fiscal Consolidations in Low-Income Countries","authors":"Adrian Peralta-Alva, Marina Mendes Tavares, Xuan S. Tam, Xin Tang","doi":"10.5089/9781484363034.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484363034.001","url":null,"abstract":"We quantitatively investigate the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of fiscal consolidations in low-income countries (LICs) through value added tax (VAT), personal income tax (PIT), and corporate income tax (CIT). We extend the standard heterogeneous agents incomplete markets model by including multiple sectors and rural-urban distinction to capture salient features of LICs. We find that overall, VAT has the least efficiency costs but is highly regressive, while PIT impacts the economy in the opposite way with CIT staying in between. Cash transfers targeting rural households mitigate the negative distributional impacts of VAT most effectively, while public investment leads to little redistribution.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131729323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
The Globalized Myth of Ownership and its Implications for Tax Competition 所有权的全球化神话及其对税收竞争的影响
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3204619
Mathias Risse, Marco Meyer
{"title":"The Globalized Myth of Ownership and its Implications for Tax Competition","authors":"Mathias Risse, Marco Meyer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3204619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3204619","url":null,"abstract":"Tax competition (by states) and tax evasion (by individuals or companies) unfold at a dramatic scale. An obvious adverse effect is that some states lose their tax base. Perhaps less obviously, states lose out by setting tax policy differently--often reducing taxes--due to tax competition. Is tax competition among states morally problematic? We approach this question by identifying the globalized myth of ownership. We choose this name parallel to Liam Murphy and Thomas Nagel's myth of ownership. The globalized myth is the (false) view that one can assess a country's justifiably disposable national income simply by looking at its gross national income (or gross national income as it would be absent certain forms of tax competition). Much like its domestic counterpart, exposing that myth will have important implications across a range of domains. Here we explore specifically how tax competition in an interconnected world appears in this light, and so by drawing on the grounds-of-justice approach developed in Mathias Risse's On Global Justice.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124229106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America 新兴经济体财政整顿的宏观经济效应:来自拉丁美洲的证据
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484361696.001
Yan Carrière-Swallow, Antonio C. David, D. Leigh
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America","authors":"Yan Carrière-Swallow, Antonio C. David, D. Leigh","doi":"10.5089/9781484361696.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484361696.001","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Based on this narrative dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on GDP, consistent with a multiplier of 0.9. We find these effects to be close to those in OECD countries based on a similarly constructed dataset (Devries and others, 2011). We also find similar estimation results for the two groups of economies for the effect of fiscal consolidation on the external current account balance, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132594086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
The Distributional Impacts of Cigarette Taxation in Bangladesh 孟加拉国卷烟税的分配影响
Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal Pub Date : 2018-06-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-8580
Giselle Eugenia Del Carmen Hasbun, A. Fuchs, M. Genoni
{"title":"The Distributional Impacts of Cigarette Taxation in Bangladesh","authors":"Giselle Eugenia Del Carmen Hasbun, A. Fuchs, M. Genoni","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8580","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the obvious positive health impacts of tobacco taxation, an argument raised against it is that poor households bear the burden of the increased prices because of their higher share of spending on tobacco. This note includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016/17. One contribution of this analysis is to quantify the impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. This shows that an increase in the price of cigarettes in Bangladesh has small consumption impacts and does not significantly change the poverty rate or consumption inequality. These findings stem from relatively even cigarette consumption patterns between less and more well-off households. These results hold even considering some small substitution through the use of bidis, which are largely consumed by the poor. The short-term consumption impacts are also negligible compared with the estimated gains because of savings in medical costs and the greater number of productive years of life.","PeriodicalId":282044,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy: Fiscal Policies & Behavior of Economic Agents eJournal","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131982588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
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