Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World最新文献

{"title":"A risk-based approach for the analysis of LNG carriers port operations","authors":"F. Ovidi, G. Landucci, L. Picconi, T. Chiavistelli","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-208","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134117203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subset simulation and global minimization: Any problems?","authors":"K. Breitung","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-291","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134322504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advances in the simplification of Fault Trees automatically generated from AltaRica 3.0 models","authors":"M. Batteux, T. Prosvirnova, A. Rauzy","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-114","url":null,"abstract":"Safety and risk analyses rely on models. These models have several important characteristics. They are event-oriented. The system under study changes of state when events, such as failure, hazard, repair and so on, occur. They are probabilistic. The exact moment of the occurrence of a failure is in essence unpredictable. They are discrete. States are represented by means of variables that take their values into finite, usually very small, domains. The most widely used modeling formalisms such as Fault Trees, Block Diagrams and Event Trees rely on Boolean algebra. There are cases however where binary states are not sufficient. For instance, it is sometimes necessary to represent the level of degradation of a component, the quality of a signal, and so on. This kind of models can be easily represented with AltaRica 3.0-a high level modeling language dedicated to safety analyses. AltaRica 3.0 is at the core of the OpenAltaRica project which aim is to develop a complete set of assessment tools for the language, including among others compilers to Fault Trees and Markov Chains, stochastic and stepwise simulators. In this article we study how the notion of prime implicants can be extended to finite domain calculus. We discuss the efficient implementation of finite domain calculus and show how these results can be applied to simplify Fault Trees, automatically generated from AltaRica 3.0 models. This simplification in its turn significantly improves the efficiency of the assessment of the automatically generated Fault Trees.","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115206091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multidimensional risk evaluation framework for managing floods in urban areas","authors":"L. Silva, R. P. Palha, Marcelo Hazin Alencar, A. T. D. Almeida","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-347","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"60 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114112409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extensions of the I&AB method for the reliability assessment of the spent fuel pool of EPR","authors":"M. Bouissou","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-112","url":null,"abstract":": The I&AB (Initiator and All Barriers) method was first introduced at ESREL 2016, as an efficient means to calculate, thanks to closed form formulae, the reliability of a very large repairable system with dependencies among components. The mathematical support of I&AB is continuous time Markov chains, and therefore it cannot be used for modeling the spent fuel pool of a nuclear power plant, because for this system, there are two kinds of deterministic delays that must be taken into account: grace times (for example, after the total loss of cooling of the pool, it takes exactly 14 hours for the water to start boiling), and deterministic failures due to the limited capacity of water tanks. In the present paper, we extend the I&AB method to account for deterministic delays. We explain how we could apply this method in the case of the fuel pool of the EPR (European Pressurized Reactor) starting from a model in the form of a BDMP (Boolean logic Driven Markov Process), and how results and computation times compare to a Monte Carlo simulation of the same BDMP.","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114302624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrated analysis system for elevator optimization maintenance using ontology processing and text mining","authors":"M. Nagasaka, M. Sato, E. Kinoshita","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-387","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"167 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115916479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for aggregating risk information across organisational levels—the case of Swedish municipalities","authors":"H. Hassel","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-209","url":null,"abstract":"Performing risk assessments for hierarchical, multi-functional systems, such as a municipality, is an activity that requires input from a multitude of actors. In such systems risk assessments can be performed at many system levels and support different types of decisions. For issues that are constrained to a specific sub-system, such as a municipal department, decisions can be preferably taken at sub-system level. However, for other issues, such as those crossing many sub-systems and system levels decisions should preferably be taken at higher system levels, e.g. at the municipal level. At the same time, these decisions require extensive information from the sub-systems. The aim of the present paper is therefore to outline a framework for how risk information can be aggregated—with application in the context of Swedish municipalities. The research builds on previous work by the authors where a method for performing risk and vulnerability assessments in municipal departments has been developed using an action research approach. The method will soon be implemented in each municipal department in the municipality of Malmo, Sweden, and the next step is to develop the aggregation of these assessments. It is argued that this aggregation is facilitated by ensuring that key aspects of the risk assessments in the municipal departments are harmonized. At the same time, too much standardisation may also reduce the utility of the assessments for the municipal departments. (Less)","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116168849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Verification of timing properties of a medical patient table case study using probabilistic model checking","authors":"Thomas Mutzke, J. Braun, A. Morozov, K. Ding, K. Janschek","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-320","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124841941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk and social interaction (samhandling) to meet the unforeseen","authors":"Glenn-Egil Torgersen, T. Steiro, L. Magnussen","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-240","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124852389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"At least as safe as manned shipping? Autonomous shipping, safety and “human error”","authors":"T. Porathe, Åsa S. Hoem, Ø. Rødseth, K. Fjørtoft, S. Johnsen","doi":"10.1201/9781351174664-52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351174664-52","url":null,"abstract":"A paradigm shift is presently underway in the shipping industry promising safer, greener and more efficient ship traffic with unmanned, autonomous vessels. In this article, we will look at some of these promises. The expression “autonomous” and “unmanned” are often used interchangeably. We will therefore start out by suggesting a taxonomy of automation and manning of these ships. We will then go on examining the promise of safety. An hypotheses of increased safety is often brought forward and we know from various studies that the number of maritime accidents that involves what is called “human error” ranges from some 7090 percent. If we replace the human with automation, can we then reduce the number of accidents? And is there a potential for new types of accidents to appear? Risk assessment will be a valuable tool, but will only reach as long as to the “known unknowns”. shuttle, “Yara remote control, Yara remote control, are you following what is happening in the Brevik strait?” He turned and looked at the shuttle and could see that she had not slowed down as he had expected. Both of the ships were now only a few hundred meters from the overturned kayak under the bridge. “Yara remote control, Yara remote control, this is Brevik VTS on channel 16. Please respond Yara.” He took up his binoculars and saw that the tanker was slowly turning. The shuttle was now only some 100 meters from the overturned kayak and the turning tanker and still showed no sign of slowing down. The radio crackled. “Brevik VTS, this is Yara. Did you call me? I had a coffee break.” “Thank, you, Yara,” the operator quickly replied. “Stop immediately; can’t you see the kayak in front of you?” “No, the sun is completely blinding both my cameras and on the radar I only see the bridge” the remote operator answered, and then he shouted “What the hell is the tanker doing!” We will not know how this incident ended as it is pure fiction and the Yara shuttle will not start to traffic the Brevik strait in southern Norway until 2021 (she will be manned in 2019, remote controlled in 2020, before attempting to go autonomous 2021). Nevertheless, the situation could be plausible. Kayaks, scooters and other leisure crafts will be close companions to autonomous ships in Scandinavian waters summertime. Cameras and radars can be deceive, as was shown in the Tesla car accident in 2017 (Lambert 2017; NTSB 2017). Bridges may obscure radar detection of objects underneath. Objects coming and leaving like the two scooters may confuse the artificial intelligence of collision avoidance sys-tems, and LIDAR (Light Imaging, Detection, And Ranging) is only useful at close range, closer than the stopping distance. Finally, the human backup may have gone for a cup of coffee. The fictional incident above is, maybe unfairly, attributed to the planned autonomous Yara-Birkeland container feeder (Kongsberg Maritime 2017). This unmanned, autonomous vessel, taking 120 containers on a fully electric propulsion system","PeriodicalId":278087,"journal":{"name":"Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World","volume":"95 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121744849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}