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Positive Spillovers from Infrastructure Investment: How Pipeline Expansions Encourage Fuel Switching 基础设施投资的积极溢出效应:管道扩建如何鼓励燃料转换
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01137
Jonathan B. Scott
{"title":"Positive Spillovers from Infrastructure Investment: How Pipeline Expansions Encourage Fuel Switching","authors":"Jonathan B. Scott","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01137","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper studies the role of the U.S. pipeline infrastructure in the country's transition from coal to natural gas energy. I leverage the Environmental Protection Agency's Mercury and Air Toxics Standards as a plausibly exogenous intervention, which encouraged many coal plants to convert to natural gas. Combining this quasi-experimental variation with a plant's preexisting proximity to the pipeline network, I isolate implied pipeline connection costs within a dynamic discrete choice model of plant conversions. Key model results indicate that infrastructure-related costs prevent $9 billion in emissions reductions from taking place, suggesting a $2.4 million per mile external benefit of pipeline expansions.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
An Experimental Study on the Effects of Communication, Credibility, and Clustering in Network Games 网络游戏中沟通、可信度和聚类效应的实验研究
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01150
Gary Charness, Francesco Feri, Miguel A. Meléndez-Jiménez, Matthias Sutter
{"title":"An Experimental Study on the Effects of Communication, Credibility, and Clustering in Network Games","authors":"Gary Charness, Francesco Feri, Miguel A. Meléndez-Jiménez, Matthias Sutter","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01150","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine how preplay communication and clustering affect play in a challenging hybrid experimental game on networks. Free-form chat is impressively effective in achieving the nonequilibrium efficient outcome, but restricted communication has little effect. We support this result with a model about the credibility of cheap-talk messages. We also offer a model of message diffusion that correctly predicts more rapid diffusion without clustering. We show an interaction effect of network structure and communication technologies. A remarkable result is that restricted communication is quite effective in a network stag hunt but not in our extended game.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Valuing Domestic Transport Infrastructure: A View from the Route Choice of Exporters 重视国内交通基础设施:出口商路线选择的视角
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01084
Jingting Fan, Yi Lu, Wenlan Luo
{"title":"Valuing Domestic Transport Infrastructure: A View from the Route Choice of Exporters","authors":"Jingting Fan, Yi Lu, Wenlan Luo","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01084","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A key input to quantitative evaluations of transport infrastructure projects is their impact on transport costs. We propose a new method of estimating this impact relying on widely accessible customs data: by using the route choice of exporters. We combine our method with a spatial equilibrium model to study the effects of the massive expressway construction in China between 1999 and 2010. We find transport costs are 20% lower on expressways than on regular roads. The expressways construction increases aggregate exports by 10% and domestic trade by 14%. It generates 5.1% welfare gains, implying a 150% net return to investment.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Aging, Secular Stagnation, and the Business Cycle 老龄化、长期停滞和商业周期
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01177
Callum Jones
{"title":"Aging, Secular Stagnation, and the Business Cycle","authors":"Callum Jones","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01177","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract By the end of 2019, U.S. output was 14% below the level predicted by its pre-2008 trend. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the United States with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding zero lower bound on nominal rates. Demographic shocks generate slow-moving trends in interest rates, employment, and productivity. Demographics alone can explain about 40% of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend by 2019. By lowering interest rates, demographic changes caused the zero lower bound to bind after the Great Recession, contributing to the slow recovery.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Class Rank and Long-Run Outcomes 班级排名和长期结果
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01125
Denning, Jeffrey T., Murphy, Richard J., Weinhardt, Felix
{"title":"Class Rank and Long-Run Outcomes","authors":"Denning, Jeffrey T., Murphy, Richard J., Weinhardt, Felix","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01125","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper considers an unavoidable feature of the school environment, class rank. What are the long-run effects of a student's ordinal rank in elementary school? Using administrative data on all public school students in Texas, we show that students with a higher third-grade academic rank, conditional on achievement and classroom fixed effects, have higher subsequent test scores, are more likely to take AP classes, graduate from high school, enroll in and graduate from college, and ultimately have higher earnings nineteen years later. We also discuss the necessary assumptions for the identification of rank effects and propose new solutions to identification challenges. The paper concludes by exploring the trade-off between higher-quality schools and higher rank in the presence of these rank-based peer effects.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 41
Measuring the Output Gap using Large Datasets 使用大数据集测量输出缺口
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01119
Matteo Barigozzi, Matteo Luciani
{"title":"Measuring the Output Gap using Large Datasets","authors":"Matteo Barigozzi, Matteo Luciani","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01119","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We propose a new measure of the output gap based on a dynamic factor model that is estimated on a large number of U.S. macroeconomic indicators and which incorporates relevant stylized facts about macroeconomic data (comovements, nonstationarity, and the slow drift in long-run output growth over time). We find that (1) from the mid-1990s to 2008, the U.S. economy operated above its potential and (2) in 2018:Q4, the labor market was tighter than the market for goods and services. Because it is mainly data-driven, our measure is a natural complementary tool to the theoretical models used at policy institutions.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Markups and Fixed Costs in Generic and Off-Patent Pharmaceutical Markets 仿制药和非专利药品市场的加价和固定成本
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01130
Sharat Ganapati, Rebecca McKibbin
{"title":"Markups and Fixed Costs in Generic and Off-Patent Pharmaceutical Markets","authors":"Sharat Ganapati, Rebecca McKibbin","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01130","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Wide dispersion is seen in pharmaceutical prices across countries with comparable quality standards. Under monopoly, off-patent and generic drug prices are at least four times higher in the United States than in comparable English-speaking high-income countries. With five or more competitors, off-patent drug prices are similar or lower. Our analysis shows that differential U.S. markups are largely driven by the market power of drug suppliers and are not due to wholesale intermediaries or pharmacies. Furthermore, we show that the traditional mechanism of reducing market power—free entry—is limited because implied entry costs are substantially higher in the United States.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions to Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints 偶约束约束动态模型解的存在唯一性
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01122
Thomas Holden
{"title":"Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions to Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints","authors":"Thomas Holden","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01122","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) like the zero lower bound (ZLB) can lead to multiple equilibria, and so to belief-driven recessions. To aid in finding policies that avoid this, we derive existence and uniqueness conditions for otherwise linear models with OBCs. Our main result gives necessary and sufficient conditions for such models to have a unique (“determinate”) perfect foresight solution returning to a given steady state, for any initial condition. While standard New Keynesian models have multiple perfect-foresight paths eventually escaping the ZLB, price level targeting restores uniqueness. We also derive equilibrium existence conditions under rational expectations for arbitrary nonlinear models.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 30
The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market 气候变化的成本上升:来自债券市场的证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01109
Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch
{"title":"The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market","authors":"Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01109","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substantially boosts estimates of the social cost of carbon and supports a climate policy with stronger carbon mitigation strategies.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134971483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis 美联储对房价和股价有反应吗?时变分析
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01120
Knut Are Aastveit, Francesco Furlanetto, Francesca Loria
{"title":"Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis","authors":"Knut Are Aastveit, Francesco Furlanetto, Francesca Loria","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01120","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to house and stock prices and whether this response has changed over time using a Bayesian structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. To recover the systematic component of monetary policy, we interpret the interest rate equation in the VAR as an extended monetary policy rule responding to inflation, the output gap, house prices, and stock prices. Our results indicate that the systematic component of monetary policy in the United States responded to real stock price growth significantly but episodically, mainly around recessions and periods of financial instability, and took real house price growth into account only in the years preceding the Great Recession. Around half of the estimated response captures the predictor role of asset prices for future inflation and real economic activity, while the remaining component reflects a direct response to stock prices and house prices.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135637917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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