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Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence 智能手机数据揭示了社区警察存在的种族差异
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01370
M. Keith Chen, Katherine L. Christensen, Elicia John, Emily Owens, Yilin Zhuo
{"title":"Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence","authors":"M. Keith Chen, Katherine L. Christensen, Elicia John, Emily Owens, Yilin Zhuo","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01370","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Research on policing has focused on documented actions such as stops and arrests—less is known about patrols and presence. We map the neighborhood movement of nearly ten thousand officers across 21 of America's largest cities using anonymized smartphone data. Police spend 0.36% more time in neighborhoods for each percentage point increase in Black residents. This neighborhood-level disparity persists after controlling for density, socioeconomic, and crime-driven demand for policing, and may be lower in cities with more Black police supervisors (but not officers). Patterns of police presence statistically explain 57% of the higher arrest rate in more Black neighborhoods.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135587217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination: An Identification Problem 不准确的统计歧视:一个识别问题
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01367
J. Aislinn Bohren, Kareem Haggag, Alex Imas, Devin G. Pope
{"title":"Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination: An Identification Problem","authors":"J. Aislinn Bohren, Kareem Haggag, Alex Imas, Devin G. Pope","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01367","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study inaccurate beliefs as a source of discrimination. Economists typically characterize discrimination as stemming from a taste-based (preference) or accurate statistical (belief-based) source. While individuals may have inaccurate beliefs about how relevant characteristics (e.g., productivity, signals) are correlated with group identity, fewer than 7% of empirical discrimination papers in economics consider the possibility of such inaccurate statistical discrimination. Using theory and a labor market experiment, we show that failing to account for inaccurate beliefs leads to a misclassification of source. We outline three methods to identify source: varying observed signals, belief elicitation, and an intervention to target inaccurate beliefs.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135476204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Large-Scale Field Experiment to Reduce Non-Payments for Water: From Diagnosis to Treatment 减少水费不支付的大规模实地试验:从诊断到治疗
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01363
Bettina Rockenbach, Sebastian Tonke, Arne R. Weiss
{"title":"A Large-Scale Field Experiment to Reduce Non-Payments for Water: From Diagnosis to Treatment","authors":"Bettina Rockenbach, Sebastian Tonke, Arne R. Weiss","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01363","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In a field experiment among 9,823 customers of the Namibian water utility, we implement interventions to reduce non-payments. The interventions are based on diagnostic surveys to identify key obstacles to payments. They address informational frictions and apply psychological commitment techniques to narrow the gap between customers' willingness to pay and actual payments. Initially, payments increase by 29% to 55%, making the interventions highly cost-effective. While removing informational frictions has a lasting impact, the commitment techniques produce only short-term effects. We demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of behavioral interventions in settings where heavy-handed tools, e.g., disconnecting non-payers, are difficult to implement.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135587219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual Methods in IO and Trade Compared 可怜的替代品?对外贸易与贸易中的反事实方法比较
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01369
Keith Head, Thierry Mayer
{"title":"Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual Methods in IO and Trade Compared","authors":"Keith Head, Thierry Mayer","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01369","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand for monopolistically competitive firm-varieties is a standard tool for models in international trade and macroeconomics. Inter-variety substitution in this model follows a simple share proportionality rule. In contrast, the standard toolkit in industrial organization (IO) estimates a demand system in which cross-elasticities depend on similarity in observable attributes. The gain in realism from the IO approach comes at the expense of requiring richer data and greater computational challenges. This paper uses the data generating process of Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995), BLP, who established the modern IO method, to simulate counterfactual trade policy experiments. We use the CES model as an approximation of the more complex underlying demand system and market structure. Although the CES model omits key elements of the data generating process, the errors are offsetting, allowing it to fit BLP-based predictions closely. For aggregate outcomes, it turns out that incorporating non-unitary pass-through matters more than fixing over-simplified substitution patterns.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135476059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crime and Mismeasured Punishment: Marginal Treatment Effect with Misclassification 犯罪与错量刑:错分类的边际处理效应
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01372
Vitor Possebom
{"title":"Crime and Mismeasured Punishment: Marginal Treatment Effect with Misclassification","authors":"Vitor Possebom","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01372","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I partially identify the marginal treatment effect (MTE) when the treatment is misclassified. I explore two restrictions, allowing for dependence between the instrument and the misclassification decision. If the signs of the propensity scores' derivatives are equal, I identify the MTE sign. If those derivatives are similar, I bound the MTE. To illustrate, I analyze the impact of alternative sentences (fines and community service v. no punishment) on recidivism in Brazil, where Appeals processes generate misclassification. The estimated misclassification bias may be as large as 10% of the largest possible MTE, and the bounds contain the correctly estimated MTE.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135476207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Electoral Violence and Supply Chain Disruptions in Kenya's Floriculture Industry 肯尼亚花卉产业的选举暴力和供应链中断
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01185
Christopher Ksoll, Rocco Macchiavello, Ameet Morjaria
{"title":"Electoral Violence and Supply Chain Disruptions in Kenya's Floriculture Industry","authors":"Christopher Ksoll, Rocco Macchiavello, Ameet Morjaria","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01185","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Violent conflicts, particularly at election times in Africa, are a common cause of instability and economic disruption. This paper studies how firms react to electoral violence using the case of Kenyan flower exporters during the 2008 postelection violence as an example. The violence induced a large negative supply shock that reduced exports primarily through workers' absence and had heterogeneous effects: larger firms and those with direct contractual relationships in export markets suffered smaller production and loss of workers. On the demand side, global buyers were not able to shift sourcing to Kenyan exporters located in areas not directly affected by the violence or to neighboring Ethiopian suppliers. Consistent with difficulties in ensuring against supply-chain risk disruptions caused by electoral violence, firms in direct contractual relationships ramp up shipments just before the subsequent 2013 presidential election to mitigate risk.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Moved to Vote: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhoods on Political Participation 移动到投票:社区对政治参与的长期影响
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01207
Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag
{"title":"Moved to Vote: The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhoods on Political Participation","authors":"Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01207","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How does one's childhood neighborhood shape political engagement later in life? We study voting rates of children who were displaced by public housing demolitions and moved to higher opportunity areas using housing vouchers. Those displaced during childhood had 11% (2 pp) higher participation in the 2016 Presidential election and were 10% (2.9 pp) more likely to vote in any general election. We argue that the results are unlikely to be driven by changes in incarceration or parental outcomes but rather by political socialization or improvements in education and earnings. These results suggest that housing assistance programs may reduce inequality in political participation.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
It's a Long Walk: Lasting Effects of Maternity Ward Openings on Labor Market Performance 漫漫长路:产科病房开放对劳动力市场表现的持久影响
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01134
Volha Lazuka
{"title":"It's a Long Walk: Lasting Effects of Maternity Ward Openings on Labor Market Performance","authors":"Volha Lazuka","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01134","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Being born in a hospital versus having a traditional birth attendant at home represents the most common early life policy change worldwide. By applying a difference-in-differences approach to register-based individual-level data on the total population, this paper explores the long-term economic effects of the opening of new maternity wards as an early life quasi-experiment. It first finds that the reform substantially increased the share of hospital births and reduced early neonatal mortality. It then shows sizable long-term effects on labor income, unemployment, health-related disability, and schooling. Small-scale local maternity wards yield a larger social rate of return than large-scale hospitals.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas 剖析美国大都市地区房地产繁荣的开端
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01133
Fernando Ferreira, Joseph Gyourko
{"title":"Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas","authors":"Fernando Ferreira, Joseph Gyourko","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01133","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We provide novel estimates of the location, timing, magnitude, and determinants of the start of the previous U.S. housing boom. The housing cycle cannot be interpreted as a single, national event, as different markets began to boom across a decade-long period, some of them multiple times. A fundamental factor, income of prospective buyers, can account for half of the initial jump in price growth, while expansion of purchases by underrepresented minorities cannot. The start of the boom also was financed conventionally, not by subprime mortgages. The latter's share did rise sharply over time, but only after a multiyear lag.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The Impact of Short-Term Employment for Low-Income Youth: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines 短期就业对低收入青年的影响:来自菲律宾的实验证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01135
Emily A. Beam, Stella Quimbo
{"title":"The Impact of Short-Term Employment for Low-Income Youth: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines","authors":"Emily A. Beam, Stella Quimbo","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01135","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We use a randomized field experiment to test the causal impact of short-term work experience on employment and school enrollment among disadvantaged, in-school youth in the Philippines. This experience leads to a 4.4 percentage point (79%) increase in employment eight to twelve months later. Although we find no aggregate increase in enrollment, we also do not find that the employment gains push youth out of school. Our results are most consistent with work experience serving as a signal of unobservable applicant quality, and these findings highlight the role of temporary work as a stepping stone to employment for low-income youth.","PeriodicalId":275408,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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