{"title":"Reply to “Comment on ‘Multievent Explosive Seismic Source for the 2022 Mw 6.3 Hunga Tonga Submarine Volcanic Eruption’ by Julien Thurin, Carl Tape, and Ryan Modrak” by Fred F. Pollitz, Ricardo Garza-Giron, and Thorne Lay","authors":"J. Thurin, C. Tape, R. Modrak","doi":"10.1785/0320230016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230016","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134223663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deepankar Dangwal, M. Behm, Xiaowei Chen, G. Soreghan
{"title":"Imaging an Enigmatic Paleovalley with Passive Seismic Methods (Unaweep Canyon, Colorado, United States)","authors":"Deepankar Dangwal, M. Behm, Xiaowei Chen, G. Soreghan","doi":"10.1785/0320220048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220048","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 High-resolution passive seismic imaging of shallow subsurface structures is often challenged by the scarcity of coherent body-wave energy in ambient noise recorded at surface stations. We show that the autocorrelation (AC) of teleseismic P-wave coda extracted from just one month of continuous recording at 5 Hz geophones can overcome this limitation. We apply this method to investigate the longitudinal subsurface bedrock structure of Unaweep Canyon—a paleovalley in western Colorado (United States) with complex evolution. Both fluvial and glacial processes have been proposed to explain the canyon’s genesis and morphology. The teleseismic P-wave coda AC retrieves zero-offset reflections from the shallow (200–500 m depth) basement interface at 120 stations along a 5 km long profile. In addition, we invert interferometrically retrieved surface-wave dispersion for the shear-wave structure of the sedimentary fill. Combined interpretation of these results and other geophysical and well data suggests an overdeepened basement geometry most consistent with glacial processes.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125499969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Goldberg, T. Taymaz, N. Reitman, A. Hatem, S. Yolsal-Çevikbilen, W. Barnhart, T. S. Irmak, D. Wald, T. Öcalan, W. Yeck, Berkan Özkan, Jessica A. Thompson Jobe, D. Shelly, E. Thompson, C. DuRoss, P. Earle, R. Briggs, H. Benz, C. Erman, Ali Hasan Doğan, Cem Altuntas
{"title":"Rapid Characterization of the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, Earthquake Sequence","authors":"D. Goldberg, T. Taymaz, N. Reitman, A. Hatem, S. Yolsal-Çevikbilen, W. Barnhart, T. S. Irmak, D. Wald, T. Öcalan, W. Yeck, Berkan Özkan, Jessica A. Thompson Jobe, D. Shelly, E. Thompson, C. DuRoss, P. Earle, R. Briggs, H. Benz, C. Erman, Ali Hasan Doğan, Cem Altuntas","doi":"10.1785/0320230009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık and subsequent Mw 7.5 Elbistan earthquakes generated strong ground shaking that resulted in catastrophic human and economic loss across south-central Türkiye and northwest Syria. The rapid characterization of the earthquakes, including their location, size, fault geometries, and slip kinematics, is critical to estimate the impact of significant seismic events. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) provides real-time monitoring of earthquakes globally, including rapid source characterization and impact estimates. Here, we describe the seismic characterization products generated and made available by the NEIC over the two weeks following the start of the earthquake sequence in southeast Türkiye, their evolution, and how they inform our understanding of regional seismotectonics and hazards. The kinematics of rupture for the two earthquakes was complex, involving multiple fault segments. Therefore, incorporating observations from rupture mapping was critical for characterizing these events. Dense local datasets facilitated robust source characterization and impact assessment once these observations were obtained and converted to NEIC product input formats. We discuss how we may improve the timeliness of NEIC products for rapid assessment of future seismic hazards, particularly in the case of complex ruptures.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128865848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Space–Time Asymmetry in Earthquake Pairs along the Central San Andreas Fault: Evidence for Small Earthquake Links at Long Distances","authors":"P. Shearer, W. Fan","doi":"10.1785/0320230002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We identify 51 near-contemporaneous earthquake pairs along a 100 km segment of California’s San Andreas fault south of San Juan Bautista between 1981 and 2021 that are separated by 5–50 s in time and 5–50 km in space. The event pairs are found throughout the time period and generally involve events smaller than magnitude 2. For 42 of these pairs (82%), the later earthquake is northwest of the earlier event—an asymmetry that is hard to explain with standard earthquake triggering models and suggests an underlying physical connection between the events. We explore possible origins for these observations but are unable to identify a definitive explanation.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122927705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nonlinear Radiation Damping: A New Method for Dissipating Energy in Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Simulations","authors":"M. Barall, R. Harris","doi":"10.1785/0320230001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Dynamic earthquake rupture simulations are used to understand earthquake mechanics and the ground shaking that earthquakes produce. These simulations can help diagnose past earthquake behavior and are also used to generate scenarios of possible future earthquakes. Traditional dynamic rupture models generally assume elastic rock response, but this can lead to peak on-fault slip rates and ground shaking that are higher than those inferred from seismological observations. Some have approached this challenge using inelastic off-fault rock behavior to dissipate energy, but the addition of inelasticity can make it difficult to select parameters and establish suitable initial conditions, and increases the model’s complexity and computational cost. We propose a new method that works by adding a nonlinear radiation damping term to the friction law, with the surrounding rocks remaining linear elastic. Our new method results in lower peak slip rates, reduced seismic radiation, and an increasing slip-weakening critical distance with increasing rupture propagation distance, all within a linear elastic model. In addition, it is easy to implement.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"16 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121010535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Hough, Luke Blair, Sonia Ellison, R. Graves, S. Haefner, E. Thompson, N. J. van der Elst, M. Page, D. Wald
{"title":"Modern Products for a Vintage Event: An Update on the 1933 Long Beach, California, Earthquake","authors":"S. Hough, Luke Blair, Sonia Ellison, R. Graves, S. Haefner, E. Thompson, N. J. van der Elst, M. Page, D. Wald","doi":"10.1785/0320230015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230015","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 When a notable earthquake occurs in the United States, a range of familiar real- and near-real-time products are produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), and made available via the ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. For historical and early instrumental earthquakes, similar results and products are developed depending on data availability and event significance, drawing from published later studies. The year 2023 marked the ninetieth anniversary of the 11 March 1933 Long Beach, California, earthquake. This anniversary provided the impetus to update ANSS products, drawing on archived and published data. Here, we describe the updated ShakeMap, shaking recordings and intensities, and retrospective aftershock forecast for the Long Beach, California, earthquake. In effect we have developed standard, modern ANSS products for an earthquake that occurred 90 yr ago. Our results show that the distributions of both the ground motions, anchored by three strong-motion recordings, and aftershock magnitudes are consistent with expectations for an M 6.4 mainshock in Southern California. We show that, notwithstanding possible limitations, instrumentally recorded accelerations from the closest station are consistent with predicted shaking and directly estimated macroseismic intensities. Updated data products have been added to the USGS event page, where they are available for download. Public-facing products were also created for the anniversary and are freely available on the USGS website.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122688615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Coseismic Slip Model of the 19 September 2022 Mw 7.6 Michoacán, Mexico, Earthquake: A Quasi-Repeat of the 1973 Mw 7.6 Rupture","authors":"Chengli Liu, T. Lay, Yefei Bai, P. He, X. Xiong","doi":"10.1785/0320220042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220042","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 On 19 September 2022, a major earthquake struck the northwestern Michoacán segment along the Mexican subduction zone. A slip model is obtained that satisfactorily explains geodetic, teleseismic, and tsunami observations of the 2022 event. The preferred model has a compact large-slip patch that extends up-dip and northwestward from the hypocenter and directly overlaps a 1973 Mw 7.6 rupture. Slip is concentrated offshore and below the coast at depths from 10 to 30 km with a peak value of ∼2.9 m, and there is no detected coseismic slip near the trench. The total seismic moment is 3.1×1020 N·m (Mw 7.6), 72% of which is concentrated in the first 30 s. Most aftershocks are distributed in an up-dip area of the mainshock that has small coseismic slip, suggesting near-complete strain release in the large-slip patch. Teleseismic P waveforms of the 2022 and 1973 earthquakes are similar in duration and complexity with high cross-correlation coefficients of 0.68–0.98 for long P to PP signal time windows, indicating that the 2022 earthquake is a quasi-repeat of the 1973 earthquake, possibly indicating persistent frictional properties. Both the events produced more complex P waveforms than comparable size events along Guerrero and Oaxaca, reflecting differences in patchy locking of the Mexican megathrust.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124980467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Mai, T. Aspiotis, T. A. Aquib, Eduardo Valero Cano, D. Castro-Cruz, A. Espindola-Carmona, Bo Li, Xing Li, Jihong Liu, R. Matrau, A. Nobile, K. Palgunadi, Matthieu Ribot, L. Parisi, C. Suhendi, Yuxiang Tang, B. Yalcin, U. Avşar, Y. Klinger, S. Jónsson
{"title":"The Destructive Earthquake Doublet of 6 February 2023 in South-Central Türkiye and Northwestern Syria: Initial Observations and Analyses","authors":"P. Mai, T. Aspiotis, T. A. Aquib, Eduardo Valero Cano, D. Castro-Cruz, A. Espindola-Carmona, Bo Li, Xing Li, Jihong Liu, R. Matrau, A. Nobile, K. Palgunadi, Matthieu Ribot, L. Parisi, C. Suhendi, Yuxiang Tang, B. Yalcin, U. Avşar, Y. Klinger, S. Jónsson","doi":"10.1785/0320230007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 On 6 February 2023, two large earthquakes with magnitude 7.8 and 7.6 rocked south-central Türkiye and northwestern Syria. At the time of writing, the death toll exceeded 50,000 in Türkiye and 7200 in Syria. The epicenter of the first mainshock was located ∼15 km east of the east Anatolian fault (EAF), the second large earthquake (9 hr later) initiated ∼90 km to the north on the east–west-trending Sürgü fault. Aftershocks delineate fault lengths of ∼350 and ∼170 km, respectively. Using satellite and seismic data for first-order analyses of surface-fault offsets, space–time rupture evolution, and recorded ground motions, our study sheds light on the reasons for the extensive destruction. The first event ruptured the EAF bilaterally, lasted for ∼80 s, and created surface fault offsets of over 6 m. The second event also ruptured bilaterally with a duration of ∼35 s and more than 7 m surface offsets. Horizontal ground accelerations reached locally up to 2g in the first mainshock; severe and widespread shaking occurred in the Hatay-Antakia area with values near 0.5g. Both earthquakes are characterized by directivity effects and abrupt rupture cessation generating stopping phases that contributed to strong seismic radiation. Shaking was further aggravated locally by site-amplification effects.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125933188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Bayona, William H. Savran, P. Iturrieta, M. Gerstenberger, Kenny M. Graham, W. Marzocchi, D. Schorlemmer, M. Werner
{"title":"Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy","authors":"J. Bayona, William H. Savran, P. Iturrieta, M. Gerstenberger, Kenny M. Graham, W. Marzocchi, D. Schorlemmer, M. Werner","doi":"10.1785/0320230006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230006","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Earthquake forecasting models express hypotheses about seismogenesis that underpin global and regional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs). An implicit assumption is that the comparatively higher spatiotemporal resolution datasets from which regional models are generated lead to more informative seismicity forecasts than global models, which are however calibrated on greater datasets of large earthquakes. Here, we prospectively assess the ability of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) model and 19 time-independent regional models to forecast M 4.95+ seismicity in California, New Zealand, and Italy from 2014 through 2021, using metrics developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Our results show that regional models that adaptively smooth small earthquake locations perform best in California and Italy during the evaluation period; however, GEAR1, based on global seismicity and geodesy datasets, performs surprisingly well across all testing regions, ranking first in New Zealand, second in California, and third in Italy. Furthermore, the performance of the models is highly sensitive to spatial smoothing, and the optimal smoothing likely depends on the regional tectonic setting. Acknowledging the limited prospective test data, these results provide preliminary support for using GEAR1 as a global reference M 4.95+ seismicity model that could inform eight-year regional and global PSHAs.","PeriodicalId":273018,"journal":{"name":"The Seismic Record","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134067395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}