{"title":"Diagnostic expert systems from dynamic fault trees","authors":"T. Assaf, J. Dugan","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285489","url":null,"abstract":"A methodology for developing a diagnostic map for systems that can be analyzed via a dynamic fault tree is proposed in this paper. This paper shows how to automatically design a diagnostic decision tree from a dynamic fault tree used for reliability analysis. In particular the methodology makes use of Markov chains since they are mathematical models used for reliability analysis. We use approximate sensitivity as an intermediary step to obtain the Vesely-Fussell measure from the Markov chain. We used the Vesely-Fussell measure of importance as the corner stone of our methodology, because it provides an accurate measure of components' relevance from a diagnosis perspective. The outcome of this paper is a diagnostic decision tree, which was generated for a real dynamic system. The diagnostic decision tree produced is a map that can be used by repair and maintenance crew to diagnose a system without having previous knowledge or experience about the diagnosed system. The methodology we develop is capable of producing diagnostic decision trees that reduces the number of tests or checks required for a systems diagnosis.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133224626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An efficient factoring algorithm for computing the failure-frequencies of telecommunications networks","authors":"M. Hayashi, T. Abe","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285432","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes and efficient algorithm for computing the failure frequencies of telecommunications networks. The proposed method is based on a special modification that transforms the formula for computing the reliability into a formula that also gives the failure frequency. A number of algorithms have been produced, and the factoring algorithm has been shown to be the most efficient. This algorithm has not yet been transformed, because its graph operations contraction and deletion of a link produce complicated expressions in the failure-frequency case. A new matrix-style decomposition formula is derived in this paper, and allows us to transform the factoring algorithm into an algorithm that gives failure frequency as well as reliability. Some numerical examples show that this new algorithm simultaneously computes both measures with high efficiency.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129059925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How to integrate inter-component dependencies into combinatorial availability models","authors":"C. Trinitis, M. Walter","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285452","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, a novel modeling method for highly available systems is proposed. As an input, the model accepts common reliability block diagrams, which are widely used because of their excellent manageability. However, unlike traditional solution methods for block diagrams, the proposed method also supports the attribution of the model with several kinds of inter-component dependencies. Thus, the evaluation of such a model yields much more realistic results, similar to using state-based models like Markovian chains (MC) or generalized stochastic Petri nets (GSPN. [M. Ajmone Marson et al., 1995, R.A. Saner et al., 1996]). However, compared to traditional state-based models, the proposed method offers a much better manageability. This means that all models are intuitive, clear, and can easily be modified, as well as created and refined in a stepwise manner. These advantages are exemplified by a realistic industrial application from the area of telecommunications. As the proposed models cannot be solved with classical solution methods for combinatorial availability models, we propose a new evaluation technique which is based on a transformation of the input models into semantically equivalent state-based models. This solution technique was implemented in the software tool OpenSESAME (simple but extensive structured availability modeling environment).","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124481798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A new approach to gathering failure behavior information about mechanical components based on expert knowledge","authors":"P. Jager, B. Bertsche","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285429","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a possibility with which the reliability knowledge of maintenance employees can be used in order to receive reliability data that can be used to do simulations or further calculations. Using the presented methodology opens up a big source of information. The use of employee knowledge entails the processing of imprecise data, as the knowledge is not given in the form of a failure time plot, but in the form of verbal expressions and specific information. The paper deals with the data format and precision of expert-based information. A methodology is presented which enables the transformation of certain employee (further called experts) information into reliability data. Apart from that the paper also shows the influence of imprecision of expert information and how to handle this imprecision in order to get applicable results. As a finishing subject the paper also provides a possibility with which the deviations of expert information from reality can be estimated dependent on the expert statement itself. With that approach one can tax the trustability of expert information.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121397592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capturing failure history over the life of equipment","authors":"Michel Galley","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285443","url":null,"abstract":"A complete summary of the operating history for a piece of equipment is valuable for the overall reliability of that equipment. The effective operation of equipment and processes is crucial for companies to succeed. Often equipment failure history is fragmented and doesn't provide a clear picture of the specific problems or what actions were taken to reduce the probability of failure. This paper explains how simple, widely available software tools coupled with principles of visual communication, systems thinking and the cause-and-effect principle allow organizations to easily create a visual map of equipment information and history in a single coherent and concise document to improve the results of any failure prevention program.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115212429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An alternate analysis of a 2x2 DOE using a contour plot of Weibull joint parameter confidence regions","authors":"E.A. Ware, D. Cooke","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285471","url":null,"abstract":"Before beginning an accelerated test program for implantable cardiac defibrillator/pacemaker leads, an initial phase of testing was performed to determine if test stations and operators could be used interchangeably. DOE and Monte Carlo simulations were used to set up the 2/spl times/2 test matrix and determine if the test would produce sufficient data. The Weibull analysis methods, including the contour plot, proved to be useful for analyzing the fatigue failure data as well as providing some insight to the analysis methods. The test results demonstrated no difference between the four runs at the 85% confidence level; however, one run was subtly different from the others. A subsequent investigation into the combined data indicated that the three parameter Weibull distribution is more suitable than the two parameter Weibull distribution. The two parameter Weibull must be used for the individual runs, due to the smaller samples sizes, even though the three parameter distribution may represent the best fit to the total population. The observed run-to-run variation may partially be due to the choice of the simpler two parameter Weibull distribution. It is concluded that the effects of test station and operator on Weibull parameters /spl beta/ and /spl eta/, are not significant at the 85% confidence level (this conclusion also holds for higher confidence levels because the intersecting area increases as the confidence level increases). It is also concluded that the three parameter Weibull model yields a better fit than the two parameter Weibull model, for this particular lead specimen, this test method, and when the sample size is sufficient.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115558963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Use of PSA tools and techniques in life cycle management of maintenance and operation of complex system","authors":"I. Vrbanic, Z. Šimić, I. Basic","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285496","url":null,"abstract":"This paper briefly discusses the uses of probabilistic safety analysis for life cycle optimization of maintenance and operation. The focus is on developing a time-dependent model for conditional failure intensity of component with incorporated effects of maintenance (major overhauls) that could be used in fault tree evaluations simulating various time points in the past or future. Likelihood functions and Bayesian inference process for estimating model's parameters based on operational history records are described for normally operating and periodically tested standby components. Finally, examples of Bayesian inference and modulation of reliability predictions are provided for each of the two types of components based on assumed operational history records in order to demonstrate that the model produces meaningful results.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115886630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fault-tolerant network reliability and importance analysis using binary decision diagrams","authors":"L. Xing","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285434","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the two-terminal reliability and link importance analysis of fault tolerant network systems in this paper. Two practical issues, imperfect coverage (IPC) and common-cause failures (CCF), which have generally been ignored by existing network models, are incorporated. The methodology is to separate the consideration of both IPC and CCF from the combinatorics of the solution and then solve the reduced problems using binary decision diagrams (BDD). The application and advantages of the proposed separable approach are illustrated using a concrete analysis of an example network system. Due to the consideration of IPC and CCF, our approach can evaluate a wider class of practical network systems as compared with existing network approaches. Due to the nature of the BDD and the separation of IPC and CCF from the solution combinatorics, our approach has low computational complexity and is easy to implement. The systems without IPC or CCF appear to be special cases of our approach.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126504098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Lessons learned from development and implementation of a strategic life cycle model","authors":"P.K. Au, S. Ma","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285520","url":null,"abstract":"A strategic life cycle model, coined triple \"A\" (adolescence, adult and aging), has been developed in 2000 at Nortel networks to drive repair outsourcing and to allocate resources freed up from outsourcing to accelerate quality growth of new products. A three-layer TOP (triple \"A\" - organizing people) strategy was then established to drive the implementation of the triple \"A\" effectively. The far-ranging impact of the triple \"A\" upon plant layout as well as roles and responsibilities is reviewed in this paper. For one of the pilot products, the cost avoidance due to early resolution of quality problems is estimated to be in excess of $7 million. The factors that have contributed to the success of this model are briefly discussed, and there are several key lessons learned from the implementation process. These include: a paradigm shift on the concept and value of repair, quantum improvement requires preventing \"birth\" defects in the design phase, synergy between various initiatives, mathematical correlation to expand the capability of the triple \"A\". Lastly, it is suggested that further research be done to explore the application of the model to practically all-human endeavors as a basis of continuous quality improvement. To substantiate this suggestion, the paper briefly sketches the concept of the triple \"A\" at several levels: vision (perspective), science (predictive), and engineering (prescriptive).","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114521094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An extended reliability growth model for managing and assessing corrective actions","authors":"L. H. Crow","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285426","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2004.1285426","url":null,"abstract":"The most widely used traditional reliability growth tracking model and reliability growth projection model are both included as IEC International Standard and US ANSI National Standard models. These traditional models address reliability growth based on failure modes surfaced during the test. With the tracking model all corrective actions are incorporated during test, called test-fix-test. With the projection model all corrective actions are delayed until the end of test. This is called test-find-test. However, the most common approach for development-testing programs include some corrective actions during testing and some delayed fixes incorporated at the end of test. That is, test-fix-find-test. This paper presents an extended model that addresses this practical situation and allows for preemptive corrective actions.","PeriodicalId":270494,"journal":{"name":"Annual Symposium Reliability and Maintainability, 2004 - RAMS","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114384551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}