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Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Real-time data assimilation 实时数据同化
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6147791
Shoko Suzuki, T. Osogami
{"title":"Real-time data assimilation","authors":"Shoko Suzuki, T. Osogami","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6147791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6147791","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the idea of using the information obtained by observing a real system while simulating the real system to improve the accuracy of a prediction about the real system made based on the result of the simulation. Our approach runs multiple simulators simultaneously in parallel, where parameters of a simulation model are varied across the simulators. Based on the observation from a real system, some of the simulators are replicated, and others are terminated. We verify the effectiveness of our approach with numerical experiments. In addition, we provide a theoretical justification for our approach, using kernel density estimation.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"230 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123160565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
On the fidelity of the Ax+B equipment model for clustered photolithography scanners in fab-level simulation 集束光刻扫描仪Ax+B设备模型在fab级仿真中的保真度研究
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6147916
J. R. Morrison
{"title":"On the fidelity of the Ax+B equipment model for clustered photolithography scanners in fab-level simulation","authors":"J. R. Morrison","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6147916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6147916","url":null,"abstract":"Linear and affine (Ax+B) models are commonly used to model equipment throughput in semiconductor wafer fabricator simulations. We endeavor to assess the quality of such models for the prohibitively expensive clustered photolithography scanner. The simulations demonstrate that such models are of varying quality. They can exhibit significant deviation from the system behavior when the simulation parameters, such as product mix and wafers per lot, change from those used to create the models. The error in throughput can range from about 4% to 60% as the number of wafers per lot varies from 24 to 1. These errors are of particular relevance for studies that consider a change to small lot sizes and high mix, as is predicted in the 450 mm era.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121831676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Optimal disease outbreak decisions using stochastic simulation 基于随机模拟的最优疾病暴发决策
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6148076
M. Ludkovski, Jarad Niemi
{"title":"Optimal disease outbreak decisions using stochastic simulation","authors":"M. Ludkovski, Jarad Niemi","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6148076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6148076","url":null,"abstract":"Management policies for disease outbreaks balance the expected morbidity and mortality costs versus the cost of intervention policies. We present a methodology for dynamic determination of optimal policies in a stochastic compartmental model with parameter uncertainty. Our approach is to first carry out sequential Bayesian estimation of outbreak parameters and then solve the dynamic programming equations. The latter step is simulation-based and relies on regression Monte Carlo techniques. To improve performance we investigate lasso regression and global policy iteration. Comparisons demonstrate the realized cost savings of choosing interventions based on the computed dynamic policy over simpler decision rules.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116980849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
1 Canadian forces flying training school (1 CFFTS) resource allocation simulation tool 1个加拿大部队飞行训练学校(1个CFFTS)资源分配模拟工具
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.5555/2431518.2431817
R. Séguin
{"title":"1 Canadian forces flying training school (1 CFFTS) resource allocation simulation tool","authors":"R. Séguin","doi":"10.5555/2431518.2431817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5555/2431518.2431817","url":null,"abstract":"1 CFFTS trains Air Combat Systems Officers (ACSO) and Airborne Electronic Sensor Operators (AESOp). The operation of the school is stochastic and dynamic in nature and a resource allocation planning tool has been built to simulate the interactions of its various components. For example, it takes into account weather, aircraft reliability, instructor availability and student failure. This presentation gives an overview of the school's operation, describes how it is simulated with a custom built C++ application and shows how the tool has been used to estimate average course duration, to determine what resources are the most significant bottlenecks and to study the effects of changes to parts of the school's operation. The tool was instrumental in showing that one of the offered courses will take much more time to complete than was anticipated and that a small improvement in the availability of the most constraining resource could produce significant benefits.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"172 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117340662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Towards a supply chain simulation reference model for the semiconductor industry 面向半导体行业的供应链仿真参考模型
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6147925
H. Ehm, Thomas Ponsignon, Hanna Wenke, L. Mönch, Lisa Forstner
{"title":"Towards a supply chain simulation reference model for the semiconductor industry","authors":"H. Ehm, Thomas Ponsignon, Hanna Wenke, L. Mönch, Lisa Forstner","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6147925","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6147925","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we describe major steps to build a supply chain simulation reference model for the semiconductor industry. We start by identifying requirements for such a reference model. Then we identify the main building blocks of the model. We present a technique to deal with load-dependent cycle times in single front-end and back-end facilities and in the overall network to reduce the modeling and computational burden. The quality of this reduction technique is assessed by comparing the full model and the model with a reduced level of detail. Finally, we discuss several potential application scenarios for a simulation reference model of a semiconductor supply network.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121372205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 28
Importance sampling for stochastic recurrence equations with heavy tailed increments 重尾增量随机递归方程的重要抽样
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6148074
J. Blanchet, H. Hult, K. Leder
{"title":"Importance sampling for stochastic recurrence equations with heavy tailed increments","authors":"J. Blanchet, H. Hult, K. Leder","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6148074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6148074","url":null,"abstract":"Importance sampling in the setting of heavy tailed random variables has generally focused on models with additive noise terms. In this work we extend this concept by considering importance sampling for the estimation of rare events in Markov chains of the form equation where the B<inf>n</inf>'s and A<inf>n</inf>'s are independent sequences of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables and the B<inf>n</inf>'s are regularly varying and the A<inf>n</inf>'s are suitably light tailed relative to B<inf>n</inf>. We focus on efficient estimation of the rare event probability P(X<inf>n</inf> > b) as b↗∞. In particular we present a strongly efficient importance sampling algorithm for estimating these probabilities, and present a numerical example showcasing the strong efficiency.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125933930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Using approximate dynamic programming to optimize admission control in cloud computing environment 利用近似动态规划优化云计算环境下的准入控制
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6148014
Zohar Feldman, M. Masin, A. Tantawi, Diana Arroyo, M. Steinder
{"title":"Using approximate dynamic programming to optimize admission control in cloud computing environment","authors":"Zohar Feldman, M. Masin, A. Tantawi, Diana Arroyo, M. Steinder","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6148014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6148014","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we optimize the admission policy of application deployment requests submitted to data centers. Data centers are typically comprised of many physical servers. However, their resources are limited, and occasionally demand can be higher than what the system can handle, resulting with lost opportunities. Since different requests typically have different revenue margins and resource requirements, the decision whether to admit a deployment, made on time of submission, is not trivial. We use the Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework to model this problem, and draw upon the Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) paradigm to devise optimized admission policies. We resort to approximate methods because typical data centers are too large to solve by standard methods. We show that our algorithms achieve substantial revenue improvements, and they are scalable to large centers.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115214278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Towards a measurement tool for verification and validation of simulation models 为验证和确认模拟模型提供测量工具
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6147787
Zhongshi Wang
{"title":"Towards a measurement tool for verification and validation of simulation models","authors":"Zhongshi Wang","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6147787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6147787","url":null,"abstract":"Model deficiencies, despite their negative influences on assessment of modeling and simulation (M&S) applications, carry a large amount of insightful information, which can be used to measure different aspects of the M&S development process and its verification and validation (V&V). Although there already exist various categorizations of model deficiencies, none of which can be used as a measurement tool to classify and analyze deficiency data collected in practice. This paper describes a framework for developing model deficiency classifications and the pilot application of the established classification scheme as a quantitative method to measure and control the V&V process being conducted. Investigations indicate that the proposed approach is capable of providing process diagnoses reflecting the real problems and identifying the improvement potentials. Based on the findings achieved in practice, a planning and tailoring concept is being developed for efficiently applying different V&V techniques in a simulation study.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115251328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Discrete-valued, stochastic-constrained simulation optimization with COMPASS 基于COMPASS的离散值随机约束仿真优化
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6148107
H. Vieira, K. Kienitz, M. Belderrain
{"title":"Discrete-valued, stochastic-constrained simulation optimization with COMPASS","authors":"H. Vieira, K. Kienitz, M. Belderrain","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6148107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6148107","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an improvement in the random search algorithm called COMPASS to allow it to deal with a single stochastic constraint.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"93 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116141189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Statistical issues in ad hoc distributed simulations 特别分布模拟中的统计问题
Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) Pub Date : 2011-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2011.6147790
Ya-Lin Huang, R. Fujimoto, W. Suh, M. Hunter, C. Alexopoulos
{"title":"Statistical issues in ad hoc distributed simulations","authors":"Ya-Lin Huang, R. Fujimoto, W. Suh, M. Hunter, C. Alexopoulos","doi":"10.1109/WSC.2011.6147790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6147790","url":null,"abstract":"An ad hoc distributed simulation is a collection of online simulators embedded in a sensor network that communicate and synchronize among themselves. Each simulator is driven by sensor data and state predictions from other simulators. Previous work has examined this approach in transportation systems and queueing networks. Ad hoc distributed simulations have the potential to offer greater resilience to failures, but also raise a variety of statistical issues including: (a) rapid and effective estimation of the input processes at modeling boundaries; (b) estimation of system-wide performance measures from individual simulator outputs; and (c) correction mechanisms responding to unexpected events or inaccuracies of the model itself. This paper formalizes these problems and discusses relevant statistical methodologies that allow ad hoc distributed simulations to realize their full potential. To illustrate one aspect of these methodologies, an example concerning rollback threshold parameter selection is presented in the context of managing surface transportation systems.","PeriodicalId":246140,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 2011 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"110 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122534409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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