Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Political Aspects of ‘Buffer Stock’ Employment: A Reconsideration","authors":"Peter Kriesler, J. Halévi, M. Setterfield","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3678142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3678142","url":null,"abstract":"Advocates of Job Guarantee (JG) or Employer of Last Resort (ELR) schemes have suggested that if the state provides ‘buffer stock’ employment to workers displaced from private employment, then full employment can be maintained over the course of the business cycle. Kalecki was sceptical about the prospects for maintaining full employment in capitalist economies, without fundamental institutional change that would alleviate certain political constraints on the maintenance of full employment. We argue that in and of themselves, JG/ELR schemes do not create the fundamental institutional change required to address Kalecki’s concerns and so ensure that full employment becomes achievable as a permanent state.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125063732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"'Was Tony Blair's Prime Ministership Neoliberal?': A Survey of British Economic Policy, 1979-2007","authors":"N. Elhefnawy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3676360","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3676360","url":null,"abstract":"The use of the term \"neoliberal\" has become controversial in recent years, at least in part because of its diversity of possible uses, and the apparent vagueness or looseness of some of those uses. That controversy has significantly extended to the characterization of center-left political parties and their leaders, like the Labour Party's Tony Blair, as neoliberals--a problem exacerbated by a comparative scarcity of summations of the relevant portions of their conduct in office that are at once properly grounded and contextualized, concise and accessible. \u0000 \u0000As a contribution to the establishment of a more substantial foundation for debates over neoliberalism in general, and the British policy record of recent decades, this paper endeavors to offer just such a summation, with an eye to answering the question \"Was Tony Blair's Prime Ministership neoliberal?\" To that end it endeavors to provide a comprehensive, rigorous definition of neoliberalism taking into account the term's at once referring to multiple, interrelated phenomena, in particular a body of ideology, style of policymaking and economic model. This general discussion of neoliberalism, moreover, is bolstered by a a detailed examination of the stated intentions and actual policies of the Margaret Thatcher prime ministership that is perhaps more widely and firmly identified with the \"neoliberal turn\" than any other. In considering Thatcher's record, the paper also fills in crucial historical context and provides a still more fully developed basis for assessing Blair prime ministership in light of the definition provided, and the precedent and context created by preceding Conservative governments. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000Ultimately this paper concludes that Blair's conduct as party leader and prime minister do in fact safely warrant characterization as neoliberal, and indeed as a significant consolidation and extension of the policy thrust from Margaret Thatcher forward. This paper also concludes that this has arguably been obscured by, besides the inadequacies of much of the available literature already mentioned, the extent to which his neoliberalism consisted of acquiescence in and extension of the initiatives of preceding Conservative governments more than presenting new ones of his own; an overreadiness to see even the most modest apparent deviation from the \"Thatcherite line\" as a break with neoliberalism (for instance, Blair's increased funding of health care, for example, while overlooking his commitment to internal markets, and intensified collaboration with the private sector, which may be said to have furthered the system's characteristically neoliberal privatization); and the degree to which Blair's domestic record has been overshadowed by his foreign policy record, above all his role in the Iraq war.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130486084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pegging or Floating? A Prospect for Regime Change in the Franc Area: Exchange Rate Practices","authors":"A. Gogué, K. O. Wonyra, K. Baita","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3646341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3646341","url":null,"abstract":"Today, monetary integration issues are at the heart of the debate among policy-makers and researchers alike. The economic literature presents potential danger for a country or group of countries that ties its currency to that of only one of its major trading partners. This article examines some of the issues related to the desirability of a formal common basket exchange rate peg for the franc zone. The analysis of the data shows that the argument for anchoring to a common basket is weaker if the exports of the countries in the region are closer to those of the major economies than to those of their regional neighbours. The strength of a regional exchange rate system depends on the degree of similarity in the economic structures, policies and internal and external shocks of each country. Analysis of the common factors affecting real effective exchange rates in the region and analysis of co-integration suggest that economic structures, policies and shocks are heterogeneous.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114037561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Labor Market Policies during an Epidemic","authors":"S. Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, K. See","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3716507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3716507","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study the positive and normative implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fallout from containment measures during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies and 80 percent to UI. The two policies are complementary, catering to different rungs of the productivity ladder. The small share of payroll subsidies is sufficient to preserve high-productivity jobs, but it leaves room for social assistance to workers who face inevitable job loss.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123701038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Financial Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Michael S. Barr, H. Jackson, Margaret E. Tahyar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3666461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3666461","url":null,"abstract":"We are living through extraordinary times as the United States has struggled to deal with the global COVID-19 pandemic, and as of the writing of this paper, we remain in the midst of the crisis. We still do not know what the full economic and financial consequences of the pandemic will be, but they are likely to persist for an extended period, as many people are unlikely to return to normal work or consumption patterns soon, and household and business defaults are likely to increase and negatively affect the financial sector. This paper, written to assist faculty in teaching about the pandemic, focuses on key actions taken by the financial regulators in response to the crisis so far, giving a detailed summary of the actions taken by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and Congress. We discuss the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy actions, emergency lending facilities, and supervisory forbearance by the federal banking agencies. We also provide a summary of financial provisions of the CARES Act, including an analysis of the Paycheck Protection Program. We explore a number of central themes already emerging, including the blurry line between monetary policy and fiscal policy. We also highlight the fact that unlike the Financial Crisis of 2008, today’s economic crisis is caused by the failure to take sufficient public health actions to contain a global pandemic, not poor policy and risk choices in the financial markets; the fact that the crisis is caused by a public health failure poses unique problems for economic and financial policymakers in crafting responses.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"285 1-2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123725089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"COVID-19 and Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area","authors":"F. Busetto, Alfonso Dufour, Simone Varotto","doi":"10.30687/978-88-6969-442-4/005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30687/978-88-6969-442-4/005","url":null,"abstract":"In this chapter we document fiscal policy developments in the main euro area economies over the last two decades and highlight the dramatic changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyse how euro area yield curves respond to COVID-19 related expectations of fiscal expansion. We show how fiscal constraints may affect interest rates. Upward pressure on national yields from higher debt levels could compromise fiscal and financial stability in the long-term.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130058919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unexpected Supply Effects of Quantitative Easing and Tightening","authors":"Stefania D’Amico, Tim Seida","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3664949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3664949","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 To analyse the evolution of the effects of quantitative easing (QE) and tightening (QT) across consecutive announcements, we focus on their unexpected component. Treasury yield sensitivities to QT supply surprises are on average larger than sensitivities to QE surprises, implying supply effects did not diminish during periods of market calm amid economic expansion. Yield sensitivities to later QE and QT surprises do not fall monotonically, thus supply shocks seemed to remain powerful. Finally, yield sensitivities are amplified by the amount of interest-rate uncertainty prevailing before announcements, implying that turning points in the balance sheet policy tended to elicit larger reactions.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127615591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flattening the Debt Curve: Empirical Lessons for Fiscal Consolidation","authors":"Véronique de Rugy, J. Salmon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3664152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3664152","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reviews the empirical literature to determine which forms of fiscal consolidation successfully reduce debt-to-GDP ratios and impact economic performance. We perform a cross-country analysis of fiscal adjustments in 26 democracies for 1995–2018 and find that expenditure-based fiscal adjustments are notably more successful at lowering debt levels than tax-based adjustments, with successful adjustments focusing around two-thirds on the expenditure side. Expenditure-based adjustments tend to cause small contractions, not significantly different from zero, while tax-based adjustments cause deep and long-lasting recessions. In addition, we find that periods of fiscal consolidation that last more than two years tend to be twice as successful as those that last only two years or less. We do not find the size of the fiscal consolidation to be a key<br>determining factor in the success of fiscal adjustments.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121483445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 'Kansas City' Approach to Modern Money Theory","authors":"L. Randall Wray","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3650357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3650357","url":null,"abstract":"Modern money theory (MMT) synthesizes several traditions from heterodox economics. Its focus is on describing monetary and fiscal operations in nations that issue a sovereign currency. As such, it applies Georg Friedrich Knapp’s state money approach (chartalism), also adopted by John Maynard Keynes in his Treatise on Money. MMT emphasizes the difference between a sovereign currency issuer and a sovereign currency user with respect to issues such as fiscal and monetary policy space, ability to make all payments as they come due, credit worthiness, and insolvency. Following A. Mitchell Innes, however, MMT acknowledges some similarities between sovereign and non-sovereign issues of liabilities, and hence integrates a credit theory of money (or, “endogenous money theory,” as it is usually termed by post-Keynesians) with state money theory. MMT uses this integration in policy analysis to address issues such as exchange rate regimes, full employment policy, financial and economic stability, and the current challenges facing modern economies: rising inequality, climate change, aging of the population, tendency toward secular stagnation, and uneven development. This paper will focus on the development of the “Kansas City” approach to MMT at the University of Missouri–Kansas City (UMKC) and the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"87 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132658063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift and Private Information: Kyle Meets Macro-Finance","authors":"Chao Ying","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3644386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3644386","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes and tests the private information explanation for the time series of pre-FOMC announcement drift. I document the informed trading is in the same direction of the realized returns in the 24-hour window before FOMC announcements, coinciding with the pre-FOMC uncertainty reduction. I integrate Kyle's (1985) model into a standard consumption-based asset pricing framework where the market makers are compensated for the risk of assets' fundamentals. Observing aggregate order flow, they update the belief about the marginal utility-weighted asset value, which resolves uncertainty gradually and results in an upward drift in market prices before announcements. I demonstrate that there is a strictly positive pre-FOMC drift if and only if the market makers require risk compensation.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129523307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}