Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal最新文献

{"title":"The Political Economy of the Budget-Making Process in Jamaica, 1991-2010","authors":"Sophia Whyte-Givans","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3576878","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3576878","url":null,"abstract":"Over the 20-year period from 1991 to 2010, changes to the Government of Jamaica's budget or fiscal behaviour have not differed, according to the political administration in power. During that period, the Ministries of Education, Health, and National Security consistently received budgetary increases that were unlikely to be reduced given their status as the spending ministries and ministries providing public goods. From FY 1991 to FY 2010, a steady number of polices and priorities have endorsed the finding that the political administration in power does not necessarily affect budget variances. Rather, the budget’s rigidity determines fiscal outcomes. These rigidities — primarily debt and the public sector wage bill — limit the power and influence of ministers of finance in changing the budget.This study explores three factors that influence the budget in the fiscal year. Elections, having an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and natural disasters have varying impact on the budgetary outcomes. The political economy of budgeting in Jamaica is a confluence of factors, chief of which are the strictures placed on fiscal policy by very powerful interest groups that are political in nature because of the pressure they can bring to bear on the political directorate as powerful constituents (i.e., voters). The importance of this cannot be ignored in any analysis of the political economy of budgeting.Until the budget offers more space or discretion for the Minister of Finance to negotiate the areas of support, the political economy of budgeting — as evidenced by the Budget Debate — is one of tradition than of real bargaining and tradeoffs with respect to allocations. Is fiscal discipline, therefore, an endogenous factor, or an unavoidable outcome of the budgeting process?","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128858579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment","authors":"Pablo Cuba-Borda, Sanjay R. Singh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3579765","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3579765","url":null,"abstract":"Concerns of prolonged near zero interest rates and below target inflation have become widespread in the advanced world. We build an analytical framework that incorporates two hypotheses of persistent ZLB episodes: expectations-driven liquidity traps and secular stagnation driven liquidity traps. We estimate the DSGE model with Japanese data from 1998:Q1 to 2012:Q4. Using Bayesian prediction pools, we find that a policymaker faces considerable real-time uncertainty in identifying the dominant narrative. We propose robust policies that eliminate expectations-driven traps and are expansionary under secular stagnation.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123754278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Fiscal Capacity for the Euro Area: Lessons from Existing Fiscal-Federal Systems","authors":"Pablo Burriel, P. Chronis, Maximilian Freier, Sebastian Hauptmeier, Lukas Reiss, Dan Stegarescu, Stefan Van Parys","doi":"10.2866/817504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2866/817504","url":null,"abstract":"espanolTras la crisis economica y financiera, ha emergido en Europa un amplio consenso sobre la necesidad de reforzar la dimension fiscal para completar la Union Economica y Monetaria (UEM). Este documento analiza el papel de las transferencias interregionales en algunas de las principales federaciones fiscales (centrado en Austria, Belgica, Alemania, Espana y Estados Unidos), con el objetivo de extraer las conclusiones necesarias para el diseno de un instrumento fiscal para el area del euro.El analisis empirico de comparticion de riesgos llevado a cabo en este documento sugiere que una estabilizacion interregional de los shocks asimetricos es mas efectiva cuando esta basada en transferencias directas de efectivo a los hogares, tales como las pensiones por desempleo, financiadas por medio de los impuestos ciclicos del Gobierno Central y de las contribuciones a la Seguridad Social. Estos resultados sugieren que un instrumento centralizado de estabilizacion macroeconomica para el conjunto del area este basado en la mejora de los mecanismos de estabilizacion automatica. Al mismo tiempo, parece importante que dicho instrumento de estabilizacion central este integrado en un marco general de politica fiscal que asegure los incentivos adecuados para los Gobiernos nacionales. EnglishAfter the financial and economic crisis in Europe, a broad consensus has emerged that a stronger fiscal dimension may be needed to complete the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). This paper analyses the performance of interregional transfers in existing fiscal-federal systems, notably in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain and the United States, and aims to draw lessons for the design of a euro area fiscal instrument. The empirical risk-sharing analysis in this paper suggests that effective cross-regional stabilisation of asymmetric shocks tends to work via direct cash transfers to households, such as unemployment benefits, which are financed out of cyclical central government taxes and social security contributions. This would suggest that a euro area budgetary instrument for stabilisation should be designed as a tool that enhances the automatic stabilisation capacity in the single currency area. At the same time, it seems important that a prospective central stabilisation instrument for the euro area would be integrated in an overall fiscal policy framework that ensures proper incentives for national policymakers.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"203 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123042801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Особенности денежно-кредитной политики в условиях низких ставок (Features of monetary policy at low rates)","authors":"Российской Федерации, Нестерова К.В, низких ставок","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3633809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3633809","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> В данной работе анализируется ряд монетарных правил, позволяющих снизить вероятность столкновения экономики с нулевой нижней границей процентной ставки. К ним относятся интегральная стабилизация, таргетирование номинального ВВП, уровня цен, номинальной ставки процента, повышенного уровня инфляции, введение отрицательной номинальной ставки процента и другие методы. Также рассматриваются дискреционные меры, используемые центральными банками в непосредственной близости номинальных процентных ставках к нулю, такие как резкое предупредительное сокращение ключевой ставки и интервенции на открытом рынке с целью сокращения долгосрочных процентных ставок. С помощью анализа современных экономико- математических моделей показывается эффективность таких монетарных правил как таргетирование номинального ВВП и уровня цен в предотвращении падения номинальной ставки процента до нуля, в первую очередь, благодаря эффективному управлению ожиданиями населения, что является слабой стороной дискреционного вмешательства.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> The paper analyses a number of monetary rules helping to decrease the probability of the nominal interest rate hitting the zero lower bound. Such measures include integral stabilization, NGDP targeting, price level targeting, raising the inflation target, introducing negative nominal interest rates etc. Discretion such as sharp preventive drop in the interest rate and LSAP to “lower for longer” are also considered. According to up-to-date New-Keynesian general equilibrium models, the major advantage of rules such as NGDP and price level targeting is their capacity to prevent zero lower bound episodes mainly by managing expectations of the public efficiently, which is a drawback of discretionary policy.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126888897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"National Culture and Central Bank Transparency","authors":"Panagiota Makrychoriti, Fotios Pasiouras","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3524928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3524928","url":null,"abstract":"Central banking has been traditionally characterized by mystique and an organizational culture of secrecy. While in recent years there has been a shift towards greater transparency around the globe, the degree of transparency continues to vary across countries. This is surprising because the transparency of central banks has been associated with positive economic outcomes, and it might also be related to integrity and ethical issues like social responsibility, the value of virtue of truthfulness for public trust, and the accountability of independent central banks to the public. The present study examines whether and how the differences in central bank transparency can be explained by a national culture of secretiveness. Using a large cross-country sample of central banks from around the globe we document a negative association between central bank transparency and a societal culture of secrecy. This finding is robust to the controls for various country-specific attributes, and the use of instrumental regressions to lessen concerns about endogeneity.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130888412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Central Banks Respond to COVID-19 to Stave off a Financial Crisis, They Need for Targeted Fiscal Measures Should not Be Understated","authors":"K. Kingsly, Kouam Henri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3562320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562320","url":null,"abstract":"Central Banks have cut interest rates to historic lows in an attempt to reduce the adverse impact of COVID-19, while unprecedented liquidity infusions have been used to reduce funding constraints and frictions in the financial market. Monetary policy will lessen the economic and financial fallout from the virus, policymakers should emphasise the need for targeted fiscal measures to complement accommodative monetary policy and central bank liquidity. These should culminate fiscal transfers, wage subsidies and a significant reduction in social security contributions for households. Nevertheless, central banks should begin stemming structural vulnerabilities in financial markets and ensure that liquidity infusions are a short-term measure designed to improve the transmissions of monetary policy rather than create financial market dependence, as has been the case since the financial crisis. \u0000 \u0000The Coronavirus or COVID-19 has caused the global economy to grow at a slower pace, government yields have tumbled and liquidity constraints have increased in financial markets across advanced economies. Prior to this, the United States and China were locked in a geopolitical, economic and technological rivalry that caused a synchronized cyclical slowdown as businesses to postpone investment decisions. This trend of slowing capital investments into productive sectors such as green technology and renewable energy saw productivity wane, and global woes were compounded by Brexit amidst sluggish growth in the single market. Following the signing of a phase one of the trade agreement and the USMCA, COVID-19 began to spread in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province. Since then, the virus has spread to Italy, North America and Africa. In the meantime, global manufacturing supply chains for cosmetics, the auto sector, consumer and industrial products stalled, business and consumer sentiment plummeted in some advanced economies and the service sector spanning tourism, transportation, restaurants have been adversely affected by the virus. Central Banks can assess the impact of the Coronavirus from two standpoints.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"268 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113959259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Issuing Asset-Backed Money with Transparency: Monopoly versus Competition","authors":"Jaevin Park","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3581291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3581291","url":null,"abstract":"I study the efficiency of issuing asset-backed money by comparing a competitive setting with a monopoly. In the model a money supplier can issue money by holding commodity such as gold, but they can also fake the quality of commodity at a proportional cost. There arises a haircut in the value of money transactions, when the moral hazard incentive becomes severe. Under perfect competition the decentralized issuers would provide money until the rates of return in money and gold are equal in equilibrium. This competitive equilibrium can be sub-optimal, because the individual issuers do not internalize the aggregate supply effect of issuing money on the prices and the haircut in general equilibrium. When the cost of faking assets is sufficiently small, the monopoly equilibrium is more efficient than the competitive equilibrium. Despite an inefficiency associated with the monopoly rent, the monopoly issuer can adjust the supply of money by considering the effects on the prices to reduce its own moral hazard incentive to raise the pledgeability of money and maximize the profit. Imposing a pigouvian tax and/or an entry cost can improve welfare of the competitive equilibrium by raising the transparency on the issuer’s moral hazard.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122364370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary Policy, Firms' Extensive Margin and Productivity","authors":"Benny Hartwig, Philipp Lieberknecht","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3556398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3556398","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores a macroeconomic notion of zombification by analyzing whether monetary policy affects productivity via firms' extensive margin. Using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, we show that monetary policy lowers productivity if it raises corporate profitability: a rise in profitability allows low-productivity incumbents to remain and unproductive new firms to enter the market. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that U.S. expansionary monetary policy raises corporate profits, reduces firm exit and increases entry. However, we do not find broad-based evidence of expansionary monetary policy reducing productivity; if at all, this effect appears to be limited to small firms. We conclude that zombification induced by monetary policy is either associated with quantitatively limited productivity effects or mutually offsetting with other productivity channels.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"96 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133569729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diagnosis and Prognosis of the Nigerian Recession","authors":"Ikamdia Adamu Mshelia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3555511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555511","url":null,"abstract":"This study explored economic recession in Nigeria as a result of negative economic growth and a business cycle contraction which results in a general slowdown in economic activity. This study analyze the impact of economic recession on the policy variable on key macroeconomic indicators such as Industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption, employment rate, per capita investment and per capita consumption. Data were collected and transformed into a simulation model used for monetary policy experiments with the primary aim of assessing the impact of a medium to long-term decline in the policy instrument on exchange rate variability, inflation rate, employment rate and economic growth. The results showed that recession has led to the decline in the country’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) as well as posed negative impacts on exchange rate variability, economic growth as well as employment objectives of the Nigerian economy. However, the alternative scenario of Nominal GDP targeting is more amenable to a multiple-objective monetary policy, as it generates higher economic growth, higher exchange rate stability as well as lower inflation rate. The study recommends that Government can respond to recession by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies such as increasing money supply, increasing government spending and decreasing taxation.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123808346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Whether the Policy Mix in the Brexit Process Is a Simple Accumulation of Short-Term Temporary Decisions or a Series of Long-Term Careful Considerations: A New Framework for Macroeconomic Policy Assessment","authors":"Liyang Tang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3554559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3554559","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies and policymaker remarks suggest that whether the policy mix in a great crisis or a big event is a simple accumulation of short-term temporary decisions or a series of long-term careful considerations could even lead the great crisis or the big event in completely different directions under government intervention. The UK-EU Membership Referendum in Jun-2016 which has officially kicked off the Brexit process and been considered as one of the biggest events in the world economy and politics makes the above theoretical and practical themes on policy mix return to the forefront amid concerns. This study first builds two diagram frameworks on the basis of improved Mundell Assignment Rule and modified Swan Model to help define the theoretical optimal policy path as the comparison standard for empirically assessing various types of policy mix in the Brexit process, subsequently the searching of the unique theoretical optimal policy path with the least distance from the actual evolution path driven by policy mix is converted into a classical primal-dual optimization problem, which can be solved through the collaboration of the GRG (abbreviation for generalized reduced gradient) nonlinear algorithm and the evolutionary algorithm. The assessment results can be generally described as only “expenditure-changing policies minus external balance related components of monetary policies” and “mix of expenditure-changing policies and expenditure-switching policies” during the Brexit process are assessed to be more like a series of long-term careful considerations, while fiscal policies, monetary policies, expenditure-changing policies (as mix of fiscal policies and monetary policies), expenditure-switching policies plus external balance related components of monetary policies, internal balance related overall policy mix, external balance related overall policy mix, and overall policy mix during the Brexit process could only be evaluated to be more like a simple accumulation of short-term temporary decisions. However, these assessment results are sensitive to specific rules set by specific scenarios, assessment results under either the scenario “limited-size backward step allowed” or the scenario “backward step allowed but punished” are significantly better than those under the above original scenario “only step in the target direction allowed”, while assessment results under the scenario “different target directions for different periods” are only slightly better than those under the above original scenario.","PeriodicalId":244949,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Monetary & Fiscal Policies eJournal","volume":"124 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115949521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}