{"title":"Escaping the Great Recession","authors":"F. Bianchi, Leonardo Melosi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2537491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2537491","url":null,"abstract":"While high uncertainty is an inherent implication of the economy entering the zero lower bound, deflation is not, because agents are likely to be uncertain about the way policymakers will deal with the large stock of debt arising from a severe recession. We draw this conclusion based on a new-Keynesian model in which the monetary/fiscal policy mix can change over time and zero-lower-bound episodes are recurrent. Given that policymakers’ behavior is constrained at the zero lower bound, beliefs about the exit strategy play a key role. Announcing a period of austerity is detrimental in the short run, but it preserves macroeconomic stability in the long run. A large recession can be avoided by abandoning fiscal discipline, but this results in a sharp increase in macroeconomic instability once the economy is out of the recession. Contradictory announcements by the fiscal and monetary authorities can lead to high inflation and large output losses. The policy trade-off can be resolved by committing to inflate away only the portion of debt resulting from an unusually large recession.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123259241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Euro-Crisis and the Courts: Judicial Review and the Political Process in Comparative Perspective","authors":"F. Fabbrini","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2328060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2328060","url":null,"abstract":"The Euro-crisis and the legal responses to it have profoundly changed the constitutional architecture of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) leading to the introduction of tighter budgetary rules, new mechanisms of financial stabilization and a comprehensive framework of economic adjustment for states in fiscal troubles. Yet, during the last years, the legal measures enacted by the European Union (EU) and the member states to respond to the crisis have increasingly fell prey to the scrutiny of courts, both at the national and supranational level. This paper provides a first comprehensive analysis of decisions by high courts in Estonia, France, Germany, Ireland, Portugal and the EU with the aim to discuss the role of the judiciary in fiscal affairs. The paper identifies a trend of increasing judicial involvement in EMU and explains it in light of the intergovernmental approach followed to respond to the Euro-crisis. As the paper argues, the choice of an intergovernmental management of the crisis, with frequent resort to international agreements outside the framework of EU law, has paradoxically produced greater judicialization than what would have occurred had the member states acted within the EU legal order. As the paper suggests, though, constitutional arguments related to expertise, voice and rights still plead in favor of letting the political branches take the lead in fiscal affairs. Hence, the paper concludes by indicating that future reforms of the EMU should be carried out through EU legislation – which is more legitimate in democratic terms (because of the political guarantees that surround law-making in the EU) and more secure in judicial terms (because of the more limited space for judicial overreach). Yet, the paper also underlines how the EU political process needs urgently to be reformed in order to improve its legitimacy and democracy.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128486667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy","authors":"K. Aastveit, G. Natvik, S. Sola","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2353008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2353008","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We consider several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction effects with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that monetary policy shocks affect economic activity considerably weaker when uncertainty is high, consistently with \"real-options\" effects suggested by models with non-convex adjustment costs. Investment responds two to five times weaker when uncertainty is in its upper instead of its lower decile. High U.S. uncertainty is associated with lower policy influence not only domestically, but in Canada too.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132506392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Risks: An Example","authors":"J. Clouse","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2303887","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2303887","url":null,"abstract":"The financial crisis and its aftermath have raised numerous questions about the appropriate role of financial stability considerations in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper develops a simple example of the possible connections between financial stability and monetary policy. We find that even without an explicit financial stability goal for monetary policy, financial stability considerations arise naturally in the context of standard models of optimal monetary policy if the potential magnitude of financial stability shocks is affected by the stance of policy. In this case, similar to the classic analysis of Brainard (1967), policymakers may seek to reduce the variance of output by scaling back the level of policy accommodation provided today in response to an aggregate demand shock relative to the level that would otherwise be provided. However, the policy implications of this possible connection between monetary policy and financial stability are complex even in the simple example considered here. In particular, financial stability considerations may also increase the relative benefits of following a commitment policy relative to a discretionary strategy.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133483272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Early Warning for Currency Crises: What is the Role of Financial Openness?","authors":"Jon Frost, Ayako Saiki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2232014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2232014","url":null,"abstract":"The paper explores whether financial openness—capital account openness and gross capital inflows—makes countries vulnerable to currency crises. A quarterly dataset on 46 advanced and emerging market economies (AEs and EMEs) during 1975Q1–2011Q4 is used, with the period after Q2 2007 used for out-of-sample testing. The key findings are: (1) capital account openness is associated with lower probability of currency crises, but less so for EMEs; (2) surges in gross capital flows are associated with increased risk of currency crises; and (3) the model performs well out-of-sample, confirming that early warning models are helpful in judging relative vulnerability.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128601383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Arresting Financial Crises: The Fed Versus the Classicals","authors":"T. M. Humphrey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2212175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2212175","url":null,"abstract":"Nineteenth-century British economists Henry Thornton and Walter Bagehot established the classical rules of behavior for a central bank, acting as lender of last resort, seeking to avert panics and crises: Lend freely (to temporarily illiquid but solvent borrowers only) against the security of sound collateral and at above-market, penalty interest rates. Deny aid to unsound, insolvent borrowers. Preannounce your commitment to lend freely in all future panics. Also lend for short periods only, and have a clear, simple, certain exit strategy. The purpose is to prevent bank runs and money-stock collapses--collapses that, by reducing spending and prices, will, in the face of downward inflexibility of nominal wages, produce falls in output and employment. In the financial crisis of 2008-09 the Federal Reserve adhered to some of the classical rules--albeit using a credit-easing rather than a money stock–protection rationale--while deviating from others. Consistent with the classicals, the Fed filled the market with liquidity while lending to a wide variety of borrowers on an extended array of assets. But it departed from the classical prescription in charging subsidy rather than penalty rates, in lending against tarnished collateral and/or purchasing assets of questionable value, in bailing out insolvent borrowers, in extending its lending deadlines beyond intervals approved by classicals, and in failing both to precommit to avert all future crises and to articulate an unambiguous exit strategy. Given that classicals demonstrated that satiating panic-induced demands for cash are sufficient to end crises, the Fed might think of abandoning its costly and arguably inessential deviations from the classical model and, instead, return to it.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126298250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policy Transmissions, External Imbalances, and Their Impacts: Cross-Country Evidence from BRICS","authors":"Ruo Chen, Chunming Yuan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1619463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1619463","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an empirical exploration of the interaction between fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rates, and external balances as well as their impacts on real economic growth and inflation for the BRICS countries. A panel VAR model is employed to assess the dynamic relationships. Our results generally confirm the significant impacts of a monetary shock on real economic activity but the effect of fiscal policy appears to be much weaker from the cross-country perspective. We do not find evidence supporting the “twin deficits” hypothesis but the positive interaction between inflation and interest rates – the “price puzzle” – is documented. When bilateral exchange rates and trade deficits (vis-a-vis the US) are used, we find that the BRICS–US bilateral trade balances do not react considerably to currency depreciation shocks, indicating that exchange rates may not play a critical role in the adjustment of large trade deficits for the U.S.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"147 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115992757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Melissa Boudreau, M. McGuire, Logan Starr, Andrew Yates
{"title":"A (Voluntary) Offer They Can't Refuse: Restructuring Italy's Sovereign Debt","authors":"Melissa Boudreau, M. McGuire, Logan Starr, Andrew Yates","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2079715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2079715","url":null,"abstract":"Italy is not Greece, but it faces considerable financial challenges in the coming years. Although we find that the Italian debt stock is quite conducive to a restructuring via local law, the lessons learned from Greece caution against taking drastic action now that would compromise Italy’s ability to confront a possible future crisis. Thus, we propose a modest plan that would allow Italy to take action now and achieve meaningful results while remaining prepared for what the future may bring. Specifically, we encourage Italy to lessen its debt load through a voluntary bond exchange in which Italy issues new Italian-law bonds with reduced principal in exchange for increased investor protections against further restructuring. Our analysis proceeds in four parts. Part I assesses Italy’s current situation in light of the recent Greek restructuring. Part II examines the Italian debt stock, with emphasis on its current ownership and governing law. Part III considers the range of options available to Italy at this time. Finally, Part IV explains our plan for Italy.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"69 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126275329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Global Financial Crisis and Resilience of the Thai Banking Sector","authors":"B. Nidhiprabha","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2001152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2001152","url":null,"abstract":"The Thai economy is vulnerable to external shocks because of its high exposure to trade and capital flows. Despite its adverse consequences on the real sector of the Thai economy in 2009, the global financial crisis had little impact on the Thai financial sector. The healthy performance and resilience of Thai financial institutions can be attributed to the financial reforms undertaken after the Asian financial crisis and the favorable macroeconomic environment.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130057145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"QE3, Treasury Style - Go Around, Not Over the Debt Ceiling Limit","authors":"Scott T. Fullwiler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1883083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1883083","url":null,"abstract":"The debt ceiling debate could be ended right now given that the US Constitution bestows upon the US Treasury the authority to mint coins. Further, this simple change would lift the veil on how current monetary operations work and thereby demonstrate clearly that a currency-issuing government under flexible exchange rates cannot be forced into default against its will and is not beholden to “vigilante” bond markets. This paper provides a description of how the process would work and the implications for monetary operations.","PeriodicalId":241446,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Response to Financial Crisis (Comparative - Monetary) (Topic)","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130797400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}