Waste management最新文献

{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics and key drivers of resource recycling industry in China (1987–2024): A multisource big data approach and machine learning analysis","authors":"Liqiang Chen ,&nbsp;Ming Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and key drivers of recycling enterprises is essential for optimizing resource recovery systems and advancing sustainable development in China. This study adopts a multisource big data approach, integrating geospatial, economic, and environmental datasets from 300 cities between 1987 and 2024, and applies spatial analysis and Random Forest models to examine 5,171 registered recycling enterprises. Results reveal strong spatial concentration in eastern coastal provinces like Jiangsu (over 500 enterprises), Shandong, and Zhejiang. Despite gradual westward expansion since 2010, the western region accounts for only 18.4% of the total. The industrial chain presents spatial heterogeneity: upstream and downstream enterprises are dispersed, while 65.5% of midstream enterprises cluster in the Yangtze River Delta. Random Forest analysis shows that patent grants (0.327) and retail sales (0.273) are the top national predictors. Regionally, innovation dominates in eastern (0.311) and central (0.500) China, with carbon emissions also influential (0.124 and 0.149), whereas market size leads in the west (0.497). Temporally, enterprise growth evolved from market- and labor-oriented drivers (2002–2009), to innovation-driven expansion (2010–2020), and finally to an environmental governance phase after 2021, where carbon emissions (0.219) became the primary spatial determinant. By leveraging big data and machine learning, this study provides insights for optimizing recycling networks and enhancing regional sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115017"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Upcycling onion peels for enhanced gas barrier and antioxidant bioplastics based on starch from potato processing slurries","authors":"Mariana Vallejo ,&nbsp;Beatriz Esteves ,&nbsp;Pedro Carvalho ,&nbsp;Manuel A. Coimbra ,&nbsp;Martinho Oliveira ,&nbsp;Paula Ferreira ,&nbsp;Idalina Gonçalves","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The upcycling of food waste into high-value materials presents a key opportunity for sustainable waste management. While onion peel (OP) extracts have been investigated as additives for bioplastics, this study explores the direct incorporation of whole powdered OP (5–20 wt%) into starch-based films, eliminating extraction steps and fully valorizing this agro-industrial by-product. Using starch recovered from potato processing slurries as the polymeric matrix, the influence of OP on film structure, mechanical performance, water resistance, gas permeability, and antioxidant activity was evaluated. Chemical analysis of OP revealed a composition of 47% alcohol insoluble compounds (mainly pectin and cellulose), 12% alcohol soluble matter (primarily glucose-based carbohydrates), 6% lipids, 2%<!--> <!-->proteins, 5% gallic acid equivalents, and 27% ashes. The direct incorporation of powdered OP resulted in natural pigmentation, producing transparent films with an orangish hue. This approach enhances the aesthetic properties of films while eliminating the need for artificial dyes, contributing to a more sustainable product design. The developed bioplastics exhibited enhanced mechanical properties and improved water resistance, making them attractive for sustainable packaging applications. At OP concentrations above 10 wt%, Young’s modulus increased from 1214 <!--> <!-->MPa to 1496 MPa, while tensile strength and elongation at break decreased from 31.4 <!--> <!-->MPa to 24.6 MPa and from 4.5% to 2.1%, respectively. Water contact angles increased from 75° up to 87°, and water vapor permeability was reduced by up to 60%, improving moisture resistance. Importantly, OP incorporation did not compromise oxygen (O₂), carbon dioxide (CO₂), or nitrogen (N₂) barrier properties and imparted significant antioxidant activity, with 20 wt% OP-based films inhibiting 93% of the 2.2′-azinobis-(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic) acid radical cation (ABTS^.+) after 6 <!--> <!-->h. This study presents an innovative waste-to-resource strategy that eliminates processing waste, aligns with circular economy principles, and demonstrates the first use of whole OP as a multifunctional additive in starch-based bioplastics. By replacing conventional extraction-based approaches, this method enhances material sustainability while promoting a scalable, zero-waste approach to packaging development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115005"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Organic solvent assisted hydrothermal processing of cooked rice to get insights into the evolution of chemical structure of hydrochar","authors":"Sobia Kousar ,&nbsp;Kanwal Javed ,&nbsp;Bushra Begum ,&nbsp;Muhammad Mahboob Naeem ,&nbsp;Shu Zhang ,&nbsp;Xun Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reaction medium not only plays the roles as solvent for dispersion of reactants in hydrothermal carbonization (HTC), but also might directly react with reaction intermediates/products, impacting properties of hydrochar. To verify potential influence of typical solvents on property of hydrochar from sugary feedstock, HTC of cooked rice in water, chlorobenzene, xylene, guaiacol, glycol, chloroaniline, and aniline was conducted at 200 ℃. The results showed that hydrocarbon solvents (chlorobenzene and xylene) enhanced yields of hydrochar from 41.5 % in water to 51.5 % and 46.8 % from their low solubility towards polar intermediates, confining them in water droplets formed from dehydration of sugars and enhancing their cross-polymerization. This formed hydrochar of higher thermal stability and heating value. Conversely, guaiacol and glycol resulted in formation of hydrochar of much lower yield (ca. 11 %) by dissolving polar intermediates, diminishing carbonyl species on hydrochar. Chloroaniline reacted with sugary intermediates via Maillard reactions, enhancing hydrochar yield (71.5 %) and N content (6.0 %) and forming C=N at expense of C=O. Aniline with high alkalinity led to fragmentation of organics in rice but not deoxygenation. The involvement of these non-alcoholic solvents in conversion of intermediates in the HTC formed hydrochar of irregular structures while clusters of grape-like structures were formed in water and glycol. The removal rate for methylene blue over the hydrochar generated in guaiacol was found to be 63.2 %, which was higher than that for Cr (VI) due to difference in the adsorption mechanism of the two pollutants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115007"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Closing the loop: Agricultural applications of hydrolyzed polyhydroxyalkanoates production waste","authors":"Anna Gorczyca ,&nbsp;Sebastian Wojciech Przemieniecki ,&nbsp;Szczepan Bednarz ,&nbsp;Marcin Niemiec ,&nbsp;Justyna Szerement ,&nbsp;Monika Kula-Maximenko ,&nbsp;Maciej Guzik","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing global demand for sustainable materials and circular economy solutions has driven research into innovative applications of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) and their by-products. While PHAs are well-recognized biodegradable bioplastics, the potential reuse of waste streams generated during their production remains largely unexplored. This study investigates the feasibility of utilizing hydrolysates derived from PHA post-fermentation biomass as biostimulants for rapeseed (<em>Brassica napus</em> L.) growth. Waste biomass from two bacterial fermentation processes – <em>Zobellella denitrificans</em> and <em>Pseudomonas putida</em> CA-3 – was subjected to acid hydrolysis to generate liquid formulations suitable for soil application. Their effects on plant growth, photosynthetic efficiency, phytohormone profiles, soil chemical composition, and microbiome dynamics were evaluated through microbiotests and pot experiments. Results indicated that hydrolysate application enhanced biomass accumulation and improved soil nutrient content, while also modulating key physiological responses, including chlorophyll fluorescence dynamics and hormone levels, suggesting a role in stress resilience. Additionally, hydrolysates induced a shift in the rhizosphere microbiome, decreasing bacterial dominance while enhancing diversity, particularly through the promotion of plant growth-associated microbial taxa. These findings support the integration of PHA production residues into agriculture, aligning with circular bioeconomy principles by converting industrial by-products into value-added biostimulants. Future research should focus on optimizing hydrolysate formulations, assessing their long-term agronomic impact, and evaluating their commercial feasibility for sustainable crop production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115006"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the potential of hydrothermal waxes derived from polyethylene: Product characterization and insights from solvent effects","authors":"Guocheng Wang ,&nbsp;Haoyu Xiao ,&nbsp;Małgorzata Sieradzka ,&nbsp;Zuzanna Prus ,&nbsp;Małgorzata Wilk ,&nbsp;Aneta Magdziarz ,&nbsp;Yingquan Chen ,&nbsp;Haiping Yang ,&nbsp;Jiawei Wang ,&nbsp;Yang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.114997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.114997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The accumulation of plastic waste poses a serious environmental challenge, and traditional disposal methods have become insufficient. The autoclave hydrothermal processing method, employing supercritical liquid as a solvent, offers notable advantages for plastic thermal decomposition, including high conversion efficiency and superior product yield. The main objective of this study is to explore the characteristics of wax products derived from the hydrothermal conversion of LDPE plastic, thereby facilitating research into heavy hydrocarbons outside the range of petrol fuel. Thus, the impact of temperature and polar solvent on the product distribution has been profoundly examined. The findings show that at temperatures below 420 °C, the hydrothermal wax displays a hardness comparable to paraffin and is insoluble in conventional solvents. The solid wax product yield reaches 98.8 % at 425 °C, representing the optimal result among all tested conditions. The addition of polar solvents enhance the efficiency of LDPE chain scission, whereas the presence of oxygen broadens the distribution of oxygenated products. Adding 100 % ethanol solvent results in 78 % liquid phase and 22 % gas phase, while adding 100 % acetic acid results in a reduction of carbon chains from 22.2 to 15.3. Ethanol-induced chemical cyclization in the hydrothermal wax resulted in the formation of liquid aromatic compounds (25.96 %). In contrast, acetic acid led to further cracking of the wax, leading to the production of a higher proportion of light hydrocarbons (83.2 %).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 114997"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From wastes to resources: the future of residential EV batteries in China through cascade utilization, recycling, and energy storage","authors":"Jiahan Luo ,&nbsp;Lei Chen ,&nbsp;Guotian Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid adoption of residential electric vehicles (EVs) in China presents significant challenges for the sustainable management of end-of-life (EOL) traction batteries. This study developed a scenario-based, province-level model to forecast the temporal and spatial distribution of retired EV batteries, evaluated their second-life energy storage potential, and quantified the economic benefits of recycling under varying electrification rates and regional policy supports. The analysis explicitly incorporated evolving battery chemistries by modeling the shifting shares of high-nickel, lithium iron phosphate (LFP), and emerging solid-state batteries in the EV fleet, and examined their implications for future material composition and recycling value chains. Results indicated that annual battery retirements would peak at 4.25 million tons by 2038, with substantial disparities across provinces. Under rapid electrification and strong policy incentives, regions such as Guangdong and Jiangsu could achieve cumulative economic benefits from battery reuse and recycling exceeding $34 trillion by 2050, representing a 24% increase compared to scenarios with slower EV adoption. Conversely, scenarios featuring slower EV growth but targeted local policies yielded up to 161% higher adaptation rates for second-life batteries in energy storage than uniform national strategies. The increasing dominance of LFP and solid-state chemistries was projected to lower the average material recovery value but enhanced overall safety and sustainability. These findings provided robust quantitative evidence to guide differentiated policy design and infrastructure investment, supporting the development of a circular battery economy critical for China’s long-term decarbonization and energy security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115008"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Using waste straw to prevent pollution”: Enabling closed-loop design of chrome-free tanning agent with tanning-masking dual effect","authors":"Huaqing Liu ,&nbsp;Taotao Qiang ,&nbsp;Ran Zhang ,&nbsp;Ruilong Li ,&nbsp;Xin Sun ,&nbsp;Sijie Yu ,&nbsp;Chao Wu ,&nbsp;Longfang Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.114984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.114984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Abundant waste crop straw produced in China will be disposed, causing severe pollution to environment. Therefore, it is still a challenge for the cleaner treatment technology and high-value utilization. In this study, we extracted the biochemical fulvic acid (BFA) from crop straw, and then synthesized a novel biomass-based tanning agent (BAA) by coordination of BFA with Al³⁺. The self-developed BAA represented tanning-masking dual effect, as well as the BAA-tanned leather demonstrated superior thermal stability (shrinkage temperature: 90.2 °C) and mechanical properties (thickening rate: 104.5 %), surpassing conventional aluminum-tanned leather. Importantly, the tanning wastewater containing residual BFA was recycled as liquid fertilizer for irrigation of crops, exhibiting significant enhancement in plant height (23 %), stem width (18 %), and leaf width (15 %). In the meantime, the aluminum content in irrigated crops (&lt;68.7 mg/kg) was less than the threshold value required by national food safety standards. This study provides a novel way for the high-value utilization of waste crop straw as cleaner chrome-free tanning agents, ultimately achieving the holo-ecological recycling. The innovative closed-loop utilization of crop straw both holds significant potential for sustainable development of agriculture and leather industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 114984"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of silica-modified biochar for sustainable and efficient stabilization of heavy metals in municipal solid waste incineration fly ash","authors":"Yixuan Xiao ,&nbsp;Yaji Huang ,&nbsp;Mengzhu Yu ,&nbsp;Zhicheng Zhu ,&nbsp;Wentao Xu ,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Li ,&nbsp;Haoqiang Cheng ,&nbsp;Baosheng Jin ,&nbsp;Xunchang Fei","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Municipal solid waste incineration fly ash (MSWI FA) is a hazardous solid waste, and its safe disposal is a global concern. Solidification and stabilization are promising treatment solutions, but there is an urgent need to develop efficient and economical chemical stabilizers to address this major challenge. Herein, we developed a layered silicon-modified biochar (Si-BC) as a chemical stabilizer for immobilizing heavy metals in MSWI FA. Stabilization experiments were conducted by adding 1.0–10.0 wt% Si-BC to evaluate its effect on metal leaching behavior. It was found that adding 2.0 % Si-BC effectively reduced the leaching concentrations of Pb and Cd to meet the GB16889-2008 standard within a wide pH range (7.0–13.0). Species analysis indicated that Si-BC obviously transformed the lead in MSWI FA from a leachable state to a stable state, outperforming commercial stabilizers such as DDTC and Na₂S. BCR analysis revealed that Si-BC exhibits reducing properties, enabling the conversion of metal cations into more stable low-valent states. XPS and FT-IR confirmed that redox reactions and surface complexation contribute to the stabilization of heavy metals. In addition, Si-BC can promote precipitation and physical encapsulation by promoting particle aggregation. This study offers new insights for developing effective MSWI FA stabilizers and highlights the potential of chemical stabilization in solid waste treatment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115009"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144581330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Valorization of contaminated dredged harbor sediments into artificial aggregates: Metal immobilization, environmental safety, and carbon footprint","authors":"Kent Naiah D. Araña ,&nbsp;Yee Cheng Lim ,&nbsp;Chih-Feng Chen ,&nbsp;Frank Paolo Jay B. Albarico ,&nbsp;Noralyn G. Dimaongon ,&nbsp;Chiu-Wen Chen ,&nbsp;Cheng-Di Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dredging is essential for maintaining ports worldwide, but disposing of contaminated dredged sediments (DS) containing toxic metals poses a major environmental challenge. Conventional disposal methods, such as landfilling and ocean disposal, are increasingly restricted by environmental regulations and public concerns. This study offers a sustainable waste management solution by converting hazardous DS into sintered artificial aggregates (AAs) by adding recycled glass waste. AAs produced at 1150 °C with 10 % glass waste addition yield excellent engineering properties, including high compressive strength (&gt;20 MPa), low water absorption (&lt;3%), and minimal porosity (4.67 %), meeting construction material standards. Environmental safety was assessed using leaching tests and the Community Bureau of Reference Sequential Extraction Procedure (BCR-SEP), a standardized method for evaluating metal stability. Both methods confirmed the low leachability of Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, and Ni under acidic and marine conditions. Pollution toxicity and human health risk indices further demonstrated that AAs are non-toxic and safe for reuse. Although AA production is energy-intensive, its carbon footprint (+0.45  kg CO₂/kg) is offset by the avoided impacts from landfill and ocean disposal. This valorization pathway reduces reliance on natural aggregates, prevents hazardous metal release, and advances circular economy objectives, offering a viable solution for cleaner production and integrated waste management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115011"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144581332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence: A hybrid approach of entropy analysis and SHAP for optimal feature selection","authors":"Vahid Nourani ,&nbsp;Aida H. Baghanam ,&nbsp;Elham Samadi ,&nbsp;Selin Uzelaltinbulat","doi":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The management of municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the primary challenges in urban areas. To improve the accuracy of waste generation predictions, this study employed a hybrid approach that integrates Mutual Information (MI) with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) for effective feature selection in Artificial Intelligence (AI) modeling. The Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models were utilized. The FFNN, a shallow learning model, is simpler and effective for capturing general patterns in data, while the LSTM, a deep learning model, is more suitable for autoregressive tasks such as predicting MSW generation. The proposed hybrid approach facilitated more precise identification of the key factors influencing MSW generation and improved the prediction models. The methodology was applied to meteorological and socio-economic data from three cities: Austin in the United States, Ballarat in Australia, and Boralesgamuwa in Sri Lanka, to examine the methodology under different conditions. The dominant factors identified included population, income, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and lagged MSW variables with lags of 5, 10, and 20 days. The modeling performance was evaluated using the Determination Coefficient (DC) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). In Austin, the FFNN achieved a DC of 0.7226 during training and 0.6529 during testing. In Ballarat, the FFNN achieved training and testing DC values of 0.7037 and 0.6941, respectively. In Boralesgamuwa, due to severe data limitations, the model did not train well and showed poor performance in predictions (DC and RMSE values were significantly lower). The better performance of the model in Austin could be attributed to the longer temporal coverage of the data and greater stability in socio-economic patterns, while higher variability in socio-economic factors in Ballarat may have slightly reduced the model’s accuracy. The results from Boralesgamuwa also highlight the importance of access to quality and consistent data for developing accurate models. These findings demonstrate that the MI-SHAP method can enhance prediction accuracy by identifying both linear and nonlinear relationships among variables and provide deeper insights into the dynamics governing waste generation. This methodology can aid in developing sustainable MSW management policies across various regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23969,"journal":{"name":"Waste management","volume":"205 ","pages":"Article 115012"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144581341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}