{"title":"A Second Example:","authors":"","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":221485,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115326947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introduction to State- and Prediction-Based Theory","authors":"","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":221485,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122134601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Guidance for Using State- and Prediction-Based Theory","authors":"","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":221485,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals","volume":"2013 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128128557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Building Model Credibility","authors":"","doi":"10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvs32sp3.14","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter assesses how state- and prediction-based theory (SPT), as a nontraditional approach to modeling adaptive behavior embedded in a nontraditional population modeling approach, faces a significant credibility challenge. This challenge is complicated by the many ways that models can gain or lose credibility, and widespread confusion surrounding the term model validation. The chapter then addresses the task of testing, improving, and establishing the credibility of individual-based models (IBMs) that contain adaptive individual behavior. The experience with the trout and salmon models provides the primary basis for this discussion, but other long-term modeling projects have produced similar experiences. The chapter summarizes some of the issues and challenges that typically arise and how they have been dealt with, before presenting lessons learned from two decades of empirical and simulation studies addressing credibility of the salmonid models.","PeriodicalId":221485,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals","volume":"127 23","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120935413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Testing and Refining State-and Prediction-Based Theory","authors":"","doi":"10.23943/princeton/9780691195285.003.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691195285.003.0009","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter highlights the importance of testing and refining the behavior theory in individual-based models (IBMs). Establishing a model's credibility is not the only reason to test theory for behavior. Doing so also offers a new and productive approach to theoretical ecology: a way to develop a toolbox of across-level theory useful for modeling populations of adaptive individuals. One can refer to testing and refining behavior sub-models as theory development, and one can do it by following the classic inductive reasoning cycle of posing, testing, and falsifying alternative hypotheses. The chapter provides a brief introduction to the pattern-oriented theory development process and presents several examples.","PeriodicalId":221485,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals","volume":"27 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126055182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introduction to State-and Prediction-Based Theory","authors":"","doi":"10.23943/princeton/9780691195285.003.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691195285.003.0003","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter discusses the state- and prediction-based theory (SPT) and its use in individual-based models (IBMs). The fundamental concept of modern theory in behavioral ecology is that behavior acts to maximize a specific measure of fitness at a specific future time, and that this fitness measure incorporates multiple elements, such as the need to avoid predators, the need to avoid starvation, and the benefits of energy accumulation for reproduction. This concept has been applied widely and successfully in dynamic state variable modeling (DSVM), and SPT was developed as a way of using the same principle in IBMs when feedback from the behavior of other individuals, combined with unpredictable environmental conditions, make the assumption of optimality used by DSVM impossible. The chapter then looks at the differences between SPT and DSVM. To model populations of adaptive individuals, SPT is implemented using five steps. These steps include embedding SPT in an IBM that simulates the processes that drive behavior, both internal to the individual and external.","PeriodicalId":221485,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals","volume":"433 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116008182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Example Four: Facultative Anadromy in Salmonid Fishes","authors":"","doi":"10.23943/princeton/9780691195285.003.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691195285.003.0007","url":null,"abstract":"This chapter offers a fourth example model, with the objective of (1) illustrating the application of state- and prediction-based theory (SPT) to a new kind of decision—a life history decision—in a case where dynamic state variable modeling (DSVM) has been applied successfully; and (2) describing the unique ability of models utilizing SPT to address population-level questions of particular interest to conservationists and managers. In this case, SPT produced individual-level decisions similar to those of DSVM, but including them in a population-level model led to quite different conclusions than those implied by the individual-level DSVM analysis. Salmonid fishes exhibit amazing life history diversity. One fundamental distinction among salmonid life histories is whether or not individuals migrate to the ocean. In general, facultative anadromy can be seen as an adaptive behavior that trades off the fitness benefits of going to the ocean versus those of remaining resident. The anadromy versus residency decision is important to fish conservation and resource management.","PeriodicalId":221485,"journal":{"name":"Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals","volume":"105 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131584986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}