Introduction to State-and Prediction-Based Theory

This chapter discusses the state- and prediction-based theory (SPT) and its use in individual-based models (IBMs). The fundamental concept of modern theory in behavioral ecology is that behavior acts to maximize a specific measure of fitness at a specific future time, and that this fitness measure incorporates multiple elements, such as the need to avoid predators, the need to avoid starvation, and the benefits of energy accumulation for reproduction. This concept has been applied widely and successfully in dynamic state variable modeling (DSVM), and SPT was developed as a way of using the same principle in IBMs when feedback from the behavior of other individuals, combined with unpredictable environmental conditions, make the assumption of optimality used by DSVM impossible. The chapter then looks at the differences between SPT and DSVM. To model populations of adaptive individuals, SPT is implemented using five steps. These steps include embedding SPT in an IBM that simulates the processes that drive behavior, both internal to the individual and external.