{"title":"A review on the Adaptive-Ridge Algorithm with several extensions","authors":"Rémy Abergel, Olivier Bouaziz, Grégory Nuel","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10440-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10440-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Adaptive Ridge Algorithm is an iterative algorithm designed for variable selection. It is also known under the denomination of Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares Algorithm in the communities of Compressed Sensing and Sparse Signals Recovery. Besides, it can also be interpreted as an optimization algorithm dedicated to the minimization of possibly nonconvex <span>(ell ^q)</span> penalized energies (with <span>(0<q<2)</span>). In the literature, this algorithm can be derived using various mathematical approaches, namely Half Quadratic Minimization, Majorization-Minimization, Alternating Minimization or Local Approximations. In this work, we will show how the Adaptive Ridge Algorithm can be simply derived and analyzed from a single equation, corresponding to a variational reformulation of the <span>(ell ^q)</span> penalty. We will describe in detail how the Adaptive Ridge Algorithm can be numerically implemented and we will perform a thorough experimental study of its parameters. We will also show how the variational formulation of the <span>(ell ^q)</span> penalty combined with modern duality principles can be used to design an interesting variant of the Adaptive Ridge Algorithm dedicated to the minimization of quadratic functions over (nonconvex) <span>(ell ^q)</span> balls.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141506394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enhancing cure rate analysis through integration of machine learning models: a comparative study","authors":"Wisdom Aselisewine, Suvra Pal","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10456-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10456-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cure rate models have been thoroughly investigated across various domains, encompassing medicine, reliability, and finance. The merging of machine learning (ML) with cure models is emerging as a promising strategy to improve predictive accuracy and gain profound insights into the underlying mechanisms influencing the probability of cure. The current body of literature has explored the benefits of incorporating a single ML algorithm with cure models. However, there is a notable absence of a comprehensive study that compares the performances of various ML algorithms in this context. This paper seeks to address and bridge this gap. Specifically, we focus on the well-known mixture cure model and examine the incorporation of five distinct ML algorithms: extreme gradient boosting, neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, and decision trees. To bolster the robustness of our comparison, we also include cure models with logistic and spline-based regression. For parameter estimation, we formulate an expectation maximization algorithm. A comprehensive simulation study is conducted across diverse scenarios to compare various models based on the accuracy and precision of estimates for different quantities of interest, along with the predictive accuracy of cure. The results derived from both the simulation study, as well as the analysis of real cutaneous melanoma data, indicate that the incorporation of ML models into cure model provides a beneficial contribution to the ongoing endeavors aimed at improving the accuracy of cure rate estimation.\u0000</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"111 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tianming Bai, Aretha L. Teckentrup, Konstantinos C. Zygalakis
{"title":"Gaussian processes for Bayesian inverse problems associated with linear partial differential equations","authors":"Tianming Bai, Aretha L. Teckentrup, Konstantinos C. Zygalakis","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10452-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10452-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This work is concerned with the use of Gaussian surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems associated with linear partial differential equations. A particular focus is on the regime where only a small amount of training data is available. In this regime the type of Gaussian prior used is of critical importance with respect to how well the surrogate model will perform in terms of Bayesian inversion. We extend the framework of Raissi et. al. (2017) to construct PDE-informed Gaussian priors that we then use to construct different approximate posteriors. A number of different numerical experiments illustrate the superiority of the PDE-informed Gaussian priors over more traditional priors.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"196 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bounded-memory adjusted scores estimation in generalized linear models with large data sets","authors":"Patrick Zietkiewicz, Ioannis Kosmidis","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10447-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10447-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The widespread use of maximum Jeffreys’-prior penalized likelihood in binomial-response generalized linear models, and in logistic regression, in particular, are supported by the results of Kosmidis and Firth (Biometrika 108:71–82, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asaa052), who show that the resulting estimates are always finite-valued, even in cases where the maximum likelihood estimates are not, which is a practical issue regardless of the size of the data set. In logistic regression, the implied adjusted score equations are formally bias-reducing in asymptotic frameworks with a fixed number of parameters and appear to deliver a substantial reduction in the persistent bias of the maximum likelihood estimator in high-dimensional settings where the number of parameters grows asymptotically as a proportion of the number of observations. In this work, we develop and present two new variants of iteratively reweighted least squares for estimating generalized linear models with adjusted score equations for mean bias reduction and maximization of the likelihood penalized by a positive power of the Jeffreys-prior penalty, which eliminate the requirement of storing <i>O</i>(<i>n</i>) quantities in memory, and can operate with data sets that exceed computer memory or even hard drive capacity. We achieve that through incremental QR decompositions, which enable IWLS iterations to have access only to data chunks of predetermined size. Both procedures can also be readily adapted to fit generalized linear models when distinct parts of the data is stored across different sites and, due to privacy concerns, cannot be fully transferred across sites. We assess the procedures through a real-data application with millions of observations.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141506395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An efficient workflow for modelling high-dimensional spatial extremes","authors":"Silius M. Vandeskog, Sara Martino, Raphaël Huser","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10448-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10448-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop a comprehensive methodological workflow for Bayesian modelling of high-dimensional spatial extremes that lets us describe both weakening extremal dependence at increasing levels and changes in the type of extremal dependence class as a function of the distance between locations. This is achieved with a latent Gaussian version of the spatial conditional extremes model that allows for computationally efficient inference with <span>R-INLA</span>. Inference is made more robust using a post hoc adjustment method that accounts for possible model misspecification. This added robustness makes it possible to extract more information from the available data during inference using a composite likelihood. The developed methodology is applied to the modelling of extreme hourly precipitation from high-resolution radar data in Norway. Inference is performed quickly, and the resulting model fit successfully captures the main trends in the extremal dependence structure of the data. The post hoc adjustment is found to further improve model performance.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Model-based clustering with missing not at random data","authors":"Aude Sportisse, Matthieu Marbac, Fabien Laporte, Gilles Celeux, Claire Boyer, Julie Josse, Christophe Biernacki","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10444-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10444-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Model-based unsupervised learning, as any learning task, stalls as soon as missing data occurs. This is even more true when the missing data are informative, or said missing not at random (MNAR). In this paper, we propose model-based clustering algorithms designed to handle very general types of missing data, including MNAR data. To do so, we introduce a mixture model for different types of data (continuous, count, categorical and mixed) to jointly model the data distribution and the MNAR mechanism, remaining vigilant to the relative degrees of freedom of each. Several MNAR models are discussed, for which the cause of the missingness can depend on both the values of the missing variable themselves and on the class membership. However, we focus on a specific MNAR model, called MNAR<i>z</i>, for which the missingness only depends on the class membership. We first underline its ease of estimation, by showing that the statistical inference can be carried out on the data matrix concatenated with the missing mask considering finally a standard MAR mechanism. Consequently, we propose to perform clustering using the Expectation Maximization algorithm, specially developed for this simplified reinterpretation. Finally, we assess the numerical performances of the proposed methods on synthetic data and on the real medical registry TraumaBase as well.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141506396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. Chau, J. L. Kirkby, D. H. Nguyen, D. Nguyen, N. Nguyen, T. Nguyen
{"title":"An efficient method to simulate diffusion bridges","authors":"H. Chau, J. L. Kirkby, D. H. Nguyen, D. Nguyen, N. Nguyen, T. Nguyen","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10439-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10439-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we provide a unified approach to simulate diffusion bridges. The proposed method covers a wide range of processes including univariate and multivariate diffusions, and the diffusions can be either time-homogeneous or time-inhomogeneous. We provide a theoretical framework for the proposed method. In particular, using the parametrix representations we show that the approximated probability transition density function converges to that of the true diffusion, which in turn implies the convergence of the approximation. Unlike most of the methods proposed in the literature, our approach does not involve acceptance-rejection mechanics. That is, it is acceptance-rejection free. Extensive numerical examples are provided for illustration and demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Efficient estimation and correction of selection-induced bias with order statistics","authors":"Yann McLatchie, Aki Vehtari","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10442-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10442-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Model selection aims to identify a sufficiently well performing model that is possibly simpler than the most complex model among a pool of candidates. However, the decision-making process itself can inadvertently introduce non-negligible bias when the cross-validation estimates of predictive performance are marred by excessive noise. In finite data regimes, cross-validated estimates can encourage the statistician to select one model over another when it is not actually better for future data. While this bias remains negligible in the case of few models, when the pool of candidates grows, and model selection decisions are compounded (as in step-wise selection), the expected magnitude of selection-induced bias is likely to grow too. This paper introduces an efficient approach to estimate and correct selection-induced bias based on order statistics. Numerical experiments demonstrate the reliability of our approach in estimating both selection-induced bias and over-fitting along compounded model selection decisions, with specific application to forward search. This work represents a light-weight alternative to more computationally expensive approaches to correcting selection-induced bias, such as nested cross-validation and the bootstrap. Our approach rests on several theoretic assumptions, and we provide a diagnostic to help understand when these may not be valid and when to fall back on safer, albeit more computationally expensive approaches. The accompanying code facilitates its practical implementation and fosters further exploration in this area.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141506398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Jittering and clustering: strategies for the construction of robust designs","authors":"Douglas P. Wiens","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10436-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10436-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We discuss, and give examples of, methods for randomly implementing some minimax robust designs from the literature. These have the advantage, over their deterministic counterparts, of having bounded maximum loss in large and very rich neighbourhoods of the, almost certainly inexact, response model fitted by the experimenter. Their maximum loss rivals that of the theoretically best possible, but not implementable, minimax designs. The procedures are then extended to more general robust designs. For two-dimensional designs we sample from contractions of Voronoi tessellations, generated by selected basis points, which partition the design space. These ideas are then extended to <i>k</i>-dimensional designs for general <i>k</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"418 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141259028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Testing the goodness-of-fit of the stable distributions with applications to German stock index data and Bitcoin cryptocurrency data","authors":"Ruhul Ali Khan, Ayan Pal, Debasis Kundu","doi":"10.1007/s11222-024-10441-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10441-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Outlier-prone data sets are of immense interest in diverse areas including economics, finance, statistical physics, signal processing, telecommunications and so on. Stable laws (also known as <span>(alpha )</span>- stable laws) are often found to be useful in modeling outlier-prone data containing important information and exhibiting heavy tailed phenomenon. In this article, an asymptotic distribution of a unbiased and consistent estimator of the stability index <span>(alpha )</span> is proposed based on jackknife empirical likelihood (JEL) and adjusted JEL method. Next, using the sum-preserving property of stable random variables and exploiting <i>U</i>-statistic theory, we have developed a goodness-of-fit test procedure for <span>(alpha )</span>-stable distributions where the stability index <span>(alpha )</span> is specified. Extensive simulation studies are performed in order to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed test. Finally, two appealing real life data examples related to the daily closing price of German Stock Index and Bitcoin cryptocurrency are analysed in detail for illustration purposes.</p>","PeriodicalId":22058,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Computing","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141259103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}