Model-based clustering with missing not at random data

Model-based unsupervised learning, as any learning task, stalls as soon as missing data occurs. This is even more true when the missing data are informative, or said missing not at random (MNAR). In this paper, we propose model-based clustering algorithms designed to handle very general types of missing data, including MNAR data. To do so, we introduce a mixture model for different types of data (continuous, count, categorical and mixed) to jointly model the data distribution and the MNAR mechanism, remaining vigilant to the relative degrees of freedom of each. Several MNAR models are discussed, for which the cause of the missingness can depend on both the values of the missing variable themselves and on the class membership. However, we focus on a specific MNAR model, called MNARz, for which the missingness only depends on the class membership. We first underline its ease of estimation, by showing that the statistical inference can be carried out on the data matrix concatenated with the missing mask considering finally a standard MAR mechanism. Consequently, we propose to perform clustering using the Expectation Maximization algorithm, specially developed for this simplified reinterpretation. Finally, we assess the numerical performances of the proposed methods on synthetic data and on the real medical registry TraumaBase as well.